[peeker01]

I've been saying this for quite a while. There is no indication that supply and demand should
cause $120 price swings.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/specul ... 2011-08-26

[peeker01]

I didn't write the article Pee, a PHd from Belgium did......take up your dissatisfaction with her!

[Outcast_Searcher]

I've been saying this for quite a while. There is no indication that supply and demand should
cause $120 price swings.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/specul ... 2011-08-26

Some perspective -- from the beginning of the article:

“In 2007 and 2008, destabilizing financial activity caused oil prices to respectively over- and undershoot their fundamental values by significant amounts,” Ine Van Robays, an academic at the Department of Financial Economics at Ghent University in Belgium, told the Commodity Futures Trading Commission at a conference about commodity markets.

However, she added financial activity in the futures market only typically produces a short-term impact.

“This implies that financial trading matters, although its effect on spot oil prices is only short-lived,” Van Robays said.

(Bold red font mine, for emphasis).

Yes. Prices get distorted, sometimes, in the SHORT term.

SO WHAT? This is annoying, but it doesn't mean:

a). Markets are "bad".
b). Government needs to (or can) "fix" anything.
c). That there is anything REMOTELY like the massive long term price dislocations the wild-eyed arm-waving anit-capitalist types love to yell about.

Peeker, did you bother to read the beginning of the article you quoted, or did you choose to ignore the obvious so you could make some distorted (and incorrect) claim, in hopes of boosting your baseless position on this (and that no one would notice)?

[Tyler_JC]

Imagine for a moment what the oil market would look like if we didn’t have a complex and sophisticated trading mechanism.

Oil consumers would have to line up at the dock and haggle with the tanker owners for each shipment. Every transaction would take place in cash. No long term contracts could be signed. Supplies would not be guaranteed. It would be utter chaos.

The oil market is remarkably efficient. It’s one of the most traded (if not THE most traded) commodity in the world. The bigger the market, the more difficult it is for any single player to manipulate it.

[peeker01]

The market seemed to work quite well before crude entered the futures market in 1978. I don't
recall the need to meet tankers with cash. I do remember the 5 dollar fillups though. I miss
those days.

[Cog]

With the exception of some peaks and valleys, I see a general trend for the past 10 years of increasing prices. Hardly seems that the speculators are affecting that trend very much. Its called peak oil for a reason.

[peeker01]

With the exception of some peaks and valleys, I see a general trend for the past 10 years of increasing prices. Hardly seems that the speculators are affecting that trend very much. Its called peak oil for a reason.

Since there has been a 26% decrease in crude prices in the past few months, demand should
have changed substantially. Has it?

[Cog]

With the exception of some peaks and valleys, I see a general trend for the past 10 years of increasing prices. Hardly seems that the speculators are affecting that trend very much. Its called peak oil for a reason.

Since there has been a 26% decrease in crude prices in the past few months, demand should
have changed substantially. Has it?

The short term economic outlook doesn't lend itself to consumption. You have noticed first and second quarter US GDP have you not?

You will find that the average oil price for this year is higher than last year. Monthly changes in prices do not impress me. Look long term.

[peeker01]

So it is your honest opinion that a huge decrease in demand caused the 26% drop in crude?

[Cog]

You are still thinking short term. A common fault among cornies and politicians. Speculators moderate what would be very wild swings in prices. They do so by projecting demand based on economic conditions at present and what is expected down the road. This is all very basic stuff here. Something you could learn over at TOD in about 5 minutes or are you still banned from there? Shorty? Xenophobe?

LOL

[peeker01]

So what went wrong in 2008?

[Cog]

We had the biggest recession since 1929, so nothing as far as I can tell. Consumption dropped off around 2 mbd in the US or have your forgotten?

Did speculators cause the price drop or was it consumption?

[peeker01]

147 to 30.......that's price stabilization in your opinion? Did demand drop 500%.

[Cog]

You can debate with the ignorant with hope that they will learn something, but you can't debate with someone practicing deception because its a waste of time.

[peeker01]

Why don't you answer my question Cog. I want to be as smart as you. No.... really.

[peeker01]

I respectfully disagree, and so do a few regulators. If demand drove crude prices to 147 three
years ago, why, with more demand are we now at 85? With Libya's 1.5 MBD off the market.