If there is a way to get through the loss of fossil fuels, it lies in developing new and more efficient ways to generate renewable energy and more efficient ways of utilizing the fossil fuels we have left. Renewable sources currently provide only 16 percent of our energy in the U.S. and 11 percent of our electric power. Unless the production of these renewables can be increased substantially in the next 50 years and the efficiency with which we use energy increased many fold, then the world is going to become a very dark and stagnant place.
There were two major developments recently that appear to have major importance to our future. The first of these is the development of workable light-emitting-diode bulbs. These are workable in the sense that they now can be made to glow in human-friendly warm white light, last 25-50,000 hours, use only about 15 percent of the electricity used by the incandescent bulb, and are falling in price to the $20-40 range. Even at these prices the payback time is 4 to 10 years considering the energy savings, and decades-long life but price cuts are likely as incandescent bulbs are phased out. Widely unrecognized but of more importance is that fact that electricity prices are going to go up rapidly during the life of these bulbs. Smart electric meters that charge more for electricity time could easily double the cost of electricity during the hours lights are most used.
The people at Volkswagen will announce a single seat electric powered car. A preview given last week reveals that the car will have a relatively small 5.3 KWh lithium-ion battery and be made mostly of aluminum. The car will have a range of only 40 miles, but given its size and battery size, which is only a third that of GM's Volt, should be relatively inexpensive to buy and operate. The important message is that Volkswagen, with government backing, could soon be producing a relatively inexpensive car that will handle the commuting and shopping needs for most of us while using very little petroleum and not much electricity either.
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