[TheAntiDoomer]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... erica.html

Assumptions that the Great Republic must inevitably spiral into economic and strategic decline - so like the chatter of the late 1980s, when Japan was in vogue - will seem wildly off the mark by then.

Telegraph readers already know about the "shale gas revolution" that has turned America into the world’s number one producer of natural gas, ahead of Russia.

Less known is that the technology of hydraulic fracturing - breaking rocks with jets of water - will also bring a quantum leap in shale oil supply, mostly from the Bakken fields in North Dakota, Eagle Ford in Texas, and other reserves across the Mid-West.

"The US was the single largest contributor to global oil supply growth last year, with a net 395,000 barrels per day (b/d)," said Francisco Blanch from Bank of America, comparing the Dakota fields to a new North Sea.

Total US shale output is "set to expand dramatically" as fresh sources come on stream, possibly reaching 5.5m b/d by mid-decade. This is a tenfold rise since 2009.

[Cog]

I see you left out this part of the linked article which is flat wrong as you probably knew.

The US already meets 72pc of its own oil needs, up from around 50pc a decade ago.

The entire article is cornie nonsense that you can prove wrong in 15 seconds with Google.

[LoneSnark2]

Odd, my googling turned up graphs supporting the statement. While it is clearly an exaggeration, we are nevertheless producing a greater share of our own oil. Although I couldn't find a graph including U.S. oil production into 2011. Does anyone else have one?

[Sixstrings]

Holy cow, this is the most goodnews, future is bright cornie article I've ever seen. What's up with Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.. he's always been an economic doomer.. is he puffing up the US to make the UK look doomy? (remember the target audience of what you read)

We need to break this one down..

Telegraph readers already know about the "shale gas revolution" that has turned America into the world’s number one producer of natural gas, ahead of Russia.

Less known is that the technology of hydraulic fracturing - breaking rocks with jets of water - will also bring a quantum leap in shale oil supply, mostly from the Bakken fields in North Dakota, Eagle Ford in Texas, and other reserves across the Mid-West.

"The US was the single largest contributor to global oil supply growth last year, with a net 395,000 barrels per day (b/d)," said Francisco Blanch from Bank of America, comparing the Dakota fields to a new North Sea.

So is this true or what?

Is peak oil canceled, and North Dakota the next North Sea? Is the article correct that the US is on the verge of a "quantum leap" in shale oil supply?

He even says China is set to fall and the US rise again, which is contrary to everything I've read and heard for years now:

Meanwhile, the China-US seesaw is about to swing the other way. Offshoring is out, 're-inshoring' is the new fashion.
"Made in America, Again" - a report this month by Boston Consulting Group - said Chinese wage inflation running at 16pc a year for a decade has closed much of the cost gap. China is no longer the "default location" for cheap plants supplying the US.

I'm not seeing many facts or figures in this article just well-written words. But Ambrose is good.. what's the deal.. has he gone from doomer to cornie? If I were a sheeple reading this I'd be feeling fantastic about America's future. Energy surplus, trade surplus, the jobs come back, peak oil canceled and skittles and unicorns too..

[The Practician]

Does the possibility that the U.S. might be able to produce large amounts of shale gas energy automatically change the social and political trends that are ongoing, such as the widening wealth gap between rich and poor, and the abandonment of democracy in anything other than symbolic form? I didn't think so.

[careinke]

Does the possibility that the U.S. might be able to produce large amounts of shale gas energy automatically change the social and political trends that are ongoing, such as the widening wealth gap between rich and poor, and the abandonment of democracy in anything other than symbolic form? I didn't think so.

No, but it means we can accelerate global warming.

[DomusAlbion]

I'm skeptical. Evans-Pritchard is not usually so upbeat. Plus there were no sources referenced. Is he on the upward swing of a yet undiagnosed bipolar disorder?

Higher domestic gas production is good but the resultant liquid equivalent will be more expensive. We've still got a huge transportation fuel squeeze coming.

Of course the off-shoring of manufacturing will have to reverse and those jobs come back home or the jobs just might go away permanently. No need to get to excited yet.

[Cog]

After I read this:

The US already meets 72pc of its own oil needs.

This is not only an exaggeration, its blatantly false. There is no point in commenting on the rest of the article when he can't or won't get the basic facts right.

[Pops]

They're drilling that's for sure, it would be real drag if they weren't hitting anything with double the number of rigs. In fact the US is using 2/3 of all the rigs in the world right now.

What is interesting to me is although the real price of oil is as high as back during the embargoes the number of rigs hasn't spiked like it did then.

The other interesting thing is that the price isn't trending down with all this new oil, it's staying up - you'd figure with the revolution and all, unleaded would be back down to 25¢ a gallon.

Oh, that's right, we can have all the oil we want as long as we can pay $100/bbl today and presumably some bigger number tomorrow.



(the price on that chart is nominal WTI not adjusted)

[Windmills]

A significant portion of the change in the import/domestic production ratio is due to demand destruction from high prices. That's not good news.

[Cog]

A significant portion of the change in the import/domestic production ratio is due to demand destruction from high prices. That's not good news.

It certainly is not but the cornies like to skim over the obvious.

[copious.abundance]

This is what you get for ignoring my posts. If you paid even a modicum of attention to what I've been posting here, none of this would be news to you.

Holy cow, this is the most goodnews, future is bright cornie article I've ever seen. What's up with Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.. he's always been an economic doomer.. is he puffing up the US to make the UK look doomy? (remember the target audience of what you read)

We need to break this one down..

Telegraph readers already know about the "shale gas revolution" that has turned America into the world’s number one producer of natural gas, ahead of Russia.

Less known is that the technology of hydraulic fracturing - breaking rocks with jets of water - will also bring a quantum leap in shale oil supply, mostly from the Bakken fields in North Dakota, Eagle Ford in Texas, and other reserves across the Mid-West.

"The US was the single largest contributor to global oil supply growth last year, with a net 395,000 barrels per day (b/d)," said Francisco Blanch from Bank of America, comparing the Dakota fields to a new North Sea.

So is this true or what?

Is peak oil canceled, and North Dakota the next North Sea? Is the article correct that the US is on the verge of a "quantum leap" in shale oil supply?

He even says China is set to fall and the US rise again, which is contrary to everything I've read and heard for years now:

Meanwhile, the China-US seesaw is about to swing the other way. Offshoring is out, 're-inshoring' is the new fashion.
"Made in America, Again" - a report this month by Boston Consulting Group - said Chinese wage inflation running at 16pc a year for a decade has closed much of the cost gap. China is no longer the "default location" for cheap plants supplying the US.

I'm not seeing many facts or figures in this article just well-written words. But Ambrose is good.. what's the deal.. has he gone from doomer to cornie? If I were a sheeple reading this I'd be feeling fantastic about America's future. Energy surplus, trade surplus, the jobs come back, peak oil canceled and skittles and unicorns too..

[copious.abundance]

Although I couldn't find a graph including U.S. oil production into 2011. Does anyone else have one?

CLICK HERE

[Bruce_S]

Oh, that's right, we can have all the oil we want as long as we can pay $100/bbl today and presumably some bigger number tomorrow.

In a global market, the Chinese get their fair share as well, and as long as they want to become like Americans, we'll all pay the same market price for crude.

Which is a darn good thing I might add, America is solving this problem for the developed countries of the world, and the Chinese will need a piece of that as well.

[Bruce_S]

A significant portion of the change in the import/domestic production ratio is due to demand destruction from high prices. That's not good news.

Of course it is. 1) Peak demand is a much more powerful concept than peak supply, and 2) it certainly helps out in terms of creating less CO2.

[Plantagenet]

Oh, that's right, we can have all the oil we want as long as we can pay $100/bbl today and presumably some bigger number tomorrow.

Which is a darn good thing I might add, America is solving this problem for the developed countries of the world....

High energy prices are a drag on economic growth, and contribute to the ongoing recession.

While its true the US recession has reduced US demand for oil, the loss of millions of jobs and record levels of poverty and unemployment in the US are generally not considered to be a "darn good thing", especially if you're one of the people out of work, or one of today's young people who are looking at having a lower standard of living than their parents.

[Sixstrings]

This is what you get for ignoring my posts. If you paid even a modicum of attention to what I've been posting here, none of this would be news to you.

Well I'll say this much, I'd like to see more discussion about this ND shale oil. The above article makes it sound like we're the next Saudi Arabia.

But I smell BS. That writer was always overboard on his doom articles in the past, so I expect the same exaggeration on something "cornie" he writes -- he has a way with words but short on actual facts, and loose on the facts he does cite. He sensationalizes. And honestly I think this is really a doom article just meant for British readership -- a reverse doom tactic, depressing Britons by fabricating a supposedly greener pasture over here in the US.

But still, being fairly balanced I'd like to learn more about the truth on the ND shale oil. How does that change the peak oil picture.

[Bruce_S]

But still, being fairly balanced I'd like to learn more about the truth on the ND shale oil. How does that change the peak oil picture.

The best peak oil definition I can find involves the use of the term "terminal decline". According to OilFinder, the US has been increasing production of late, back to 2003 levels. This certainly knocks out the "terminal" part of the definition, and increases knock out the "decline" part as well.

Pretty good for a start, as to whether or not production can increase to even earlier levels appears to be unknown at this point.

[copious.abundance]

Well I'll say this much, I'd like to see more discussion about this ND shale oil.

>> Where the hell have you been for the past 3 years??? <<

[Bruce_S]

Oh, that's right, we can have all the oil we want as long as we can pay $100/bbl today and presumably some bigger number tomorrow.

Which is a darn good thing I might add, America is solving this problem for the developed countries of the world....

High energy prices are a drag on economic growth, and contribute to the ongoing recession.

You mean, contributing to the possibility of a double dip of the last recession? The people who keep track of these called the end of the old one back in 2009 or so (I think, uncertain about the date, but not the end of the recession).

While its true the US recession has reduced US demand for oil, the loss of millions of jobs and record levels of poverty and unemployment in the US are generally not considered to be a "darn good thing", especially if you're one of the people out of work, or one of today's young people who are looking at having a lower standard of living than their parents.

Lower standard of living have been happening, and disguised by, the growth of two earner families for longer than most people suspect, or at least a decade or two, depending on what you suspect. Students who decided that basket weaving degrees were the key to a higher standard of living deserve what they get, as do those who got greedy with their homes and fell for the home=ATM encouragement from Congress, the banks, and easy credit of the 2000's. Certainly times aren't good, and these mistakes wouldn't have been made if A) people had lived through these types of times before which means you have to be at least 50 to remember those B) they had paid attention to their grandparents who did and C) they hadn't fallen for the ridiculous nature of what passes for modern "culture".

The day Brittany Spears became a star, I knew this country was doomed.

Once upon a time being a living, breathing person wasn't enough to get, and keep, a job. Good work habits, decent character (but sir, I need to smoke dope because I have a medical card which claims I might suffer from mild glaucoma!), and non-Brittany Spears influenced brain power are still in short supply I imagine, otherwise jobs wouldn't be going unfilled, even in this economy. How do you retrain some bubble brained pothead who never was required to show up on time to fleece ignorant mortgage signing zombies, prior to "earning" a 6-figure income mostly because he/she didn't open his/her mouth and tell the people signing the paperwork (I include students and their loans in this critique as well) that if any economic troubles came along, they were going to be damned hosed like everyone else.