Crazy_Dad wrote:Probably the bigest tragedy to beset mankind will be our own fecundity. Some news outlets are 'celebrating 7 billion'. I see no logical or scientific reason in play in the main stream. May the spaghetti monster help us all.
Today the world population reached 7 billion (more or less). The media and interwebs are abuzz about what it all means. Designer/writer/researcher Tim De Chant has a more interesting take: What does it all look like? Specifically: If all those people lived in one enormous city, how big would that city be?
The question raises interesting sub-questions about urban design and density, which De Chant's design incorporates: He doesn't just map the vaunted 7 billion onto some city at random, or onto some imaginary "average" city, but onto six famous metropolises across the world with wildly different ages, nationalities, and cultural histories. And De Chant uses the lower 48 United States as a scale reference. That might not mean much to non-American readers, but if Yankees comprise the bulk of De Chant's own audience on his must-read blog, it's a clever piece of visual communication.
So, the results: Apparently, a city with 7 billion inhabitants--and the population density of Paris--could fit comfortably into a space the size of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
According to USA Today, half the world's population already lives in cities, a figure that could increase to 69% by 2050. Designing smarter cities that can pack people in without crushing their souls is going to be one of the great challenges of our century, and kudos to Tim De Chant for making such an elegant visual argument for it.
Although Ehrlich's rectangle is a neat illustration, the population "problem" for the environment is more accurately described as two rectangles, each representing the number of people on the vertical and their lifestyles on the horizontal: one tall skinny quadrant encompasses billions of people who use very little of Earth's resources; the other a much shorter, extraordinarily long one for the minority of humans who use the vast majority of natural wealth. The World Bank estimates, for example, that the richest fifth of the world has more than three-quarters of the income; the poorest fifth just 1.5%.
Given that populations are barely stable and sometimes falling in most of the rich world, population policy would inevitably have to make noticeable inroads into the tall-skinny many/poor rectangle. Assuming such policies were successful – and excluding the widely unacceptable coercion of China's one child policy or India's mass sterilisations in the 1970s, persuading people to have fewer babies has proved very tricky – the overall reduction in combined environmental impact would be very small.
The more troubling issue, though, is that this calculation assumes that as the tall-skinny rectangle gets shorter, it does not get wider. Experience, however, suggests that, except for extreme cases such as Zimbabwe, it will get fatter.
Across time and geography, countries that have reduced birth rates have got richer and so more consumptive: rising incomes, better health and education give men and women the confidence that more of their children will survive into adulthood and help support their families; and as birthrates fall governments can spend more on each person's health, education and jobs, feeding a virtuous cycle of economic development and slowing population growth.
Graeme wrote:Across time and geography, countries that have reduced birth rates have got richer and so more consumptive: rising incomes, better health and education give men and women the confidence that more of their children will survive into adulthood and help support their families; and as birthrates fall governments can spend more on each person's health, education and jobs, feeding a virtuous cycle of economic development and slowing population growth.
Graeme wrote:The World Bank estimates, for example, that the richest fifth of the world has more than three-quarters of the income; the poorest fifth just 1.5%.
Serial_Worrier wrote:So ya'll POers are worthy but those dirty 3rd world billions should be done away with for "the good of Gaia" riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.
Pretorian wrote:Serial_Worrier wrote:So ya'll POers are worthy but those dirty 3rd world billions should be done away with for "the good of Gaia" riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.
well they will be done away with regardless of your opinion, soo.. what is your point exactly
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