[Graeme]

Is this group think, or is the U.S. about to be energy-independent?

One becomes nervous when a consensus begins to form around a Big New Idea -- it starts to sound like group think. So what are we to make of the cottage industry developing around the notion that the U.S. not only isn't facing an impending oil shortage -- it is on the cusp of being nearly energy independent, short of a margin of barrels that will be imported from friendly Canada and Mexico?

As discussed over the weekend, Clifford Krauss of the New York Times and oil consultant Daniel Yergin, writing at the Washington Post, have published long pieces marveling at the emerging picture of a hydrocarbon bonanza in the United States and right on its borders. Today, the Financial Times' Ed Crooks adds a third lengthy analysis to this growing train, suggesting that by 2035, the U.S. and Canada together could be producing a whopping 22 million barrels of oil a day -- more than twice the current volume - and thus requiring almost no other crude from anywhere. Add up oil shale from North Dakota (pictured above, North Dakotan oil camp), Texas and elsewhere; Gulf of Mexico crude; natural gas liquids from shale gas; plus Canadian oil sands, and you get the picture. In combination, the analyses leave one with whiplash.

How surprising is this shift? In his Washington Post piece published Sunday, Yergin describes the emergence of a "new world oil map ... centered not on the Middle East but on the Western Hemisphere." But just six weeks ago, Yergin published The Quest -- his comprehensive, 754-page fresh dive into global energy -- which not only doesn't mention such a shift, but describes a continued Middle East-centered oil universe in which the notion of energy security is a mere "mantra." Yergin already needs to go to an updated second edition.

What could undermine the prognoses is if the result is relatively low oil prices, and a resumption of America's gluttonous gasoline appetite, which would erode millions of barrels of oil a day. Still, Crooks finds solace in the volumes further afield, but still in the Western Hemisphere: "Even if the most optimistic hopes are not fulfilled," he writes, "one can imagine a future in which the U.S. imports oil only from Canada, Mexico and a handful of other friendly countries such as Brazil."

energybulletin

[MD]

Yes. North America will become energy independent. No doubt at all.

Many people won't like the circumstances by which this fact becomes reality.

Be in the accepting group, and life can be fine.

[Graeme]

I don't necessarily accept the premise of the author but I will follow his purpose for writing the book:

Reporting on the latest boardroom deals and oil-patch catastrophes, the pursuit of the resources of today and the technologies of the future, The Oil and the Glory is meant to invite debate and discussion. We welcome suggestions and tips.

Author Steve LeVine is a contributing editor at Foreign Policy, a Schwartz Fellow at the New America Foundation, and author of The Oil and the Glory, a history of oil told through the 1990s-2000s oil rush on the Caspian Sea. He is also an adjunct professor at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, where he teaches energy and security in the Security Studies Program.

[Graeme]

Could the U.S. become energy independent after all?

America has slashed its reliance on imported oil in recent years. Will we ever be able to swear off Persian Gulf oil entirely?

The oil industry and environmentalists are nervously awaiting a decision from President Obama on whether he'll allow construction of the controversial, 1,700-mile Keystone XL pipeline. Snaking through the Midwest, the pipeline would carry Canadian oil-sands crude to Texas refineries. The project comes as many new technologies have already helped revive declining domestic oil fields, reducing imports from a record 60 percent of U.S. consumption in 2005 to about 47 percent now. Many people once considered energy independence to be an unrealistic dream. Is it now reasonable to think that the U.S. could wean itself off of oil from the volatile Middle East?

Absolutely. America's energy future has changed: There's a "new U.S. oil boom" underway, says Ed Crooks at Financial Times. New techniques such as hydraulic fracturing (to break up underground rock and free trapped reserves) and long-reach horizontal drilling have uncorked what could be a 100-year supply of natural gas. And with oil-sands crude coming, too, North American energy independence is no longer a distant dream — it's really within reach.
"Pendulum swings on American oil independence"

Be careful what you wish for: Energy independence would come at a steep price, Chris MacDonald, a visiting business-ethics scholar at the University of Toronto, tells The Christian Science Monitor. Canada is fighting oil-sands pipeline opposition by saying its crude is more "ethical" than the "conflict oil" coming from places like Saudi Arabia, which tramples women's rights. But "tar sands oil is the dirtiest and least environmentally attractive oil in the world. Choose your poison: Environmental or human degradation."
"Is Canada's oil more ethical than Saudi Arabia's?"

We have oil — but it will never be enough: It's fair to say that the gloomy warnings about America's dwindling energy supply were overblown, says Steve LeVine at Foreign Policy. But the same might be true of "the Big New Idea of U.S. oil abundance." Even if we do have way more oil than once thought, we're going to run out of hydrocarbons in the foreseeable future. And we still don't have the "non-fossil fuel technology" we need to replace them.
"Is this group think, or is the U.S. about to be energy-independent?"

yahoo

[Pops]

MD's right, we will be "energy independent" simply because there just won't be any oil available to import. Luckily we have some even though it is more and more expensive.

And I say "some" because it isn't all "ours":

CNOOC will partner with Chesapeake Energy Corp. to develop the Niobrara Shale and Powder River Basin in Wyoming and Colorado. That deal closed Wednesday, February 16, 2011.

CNOOC closed a similar deal with Chesapeake last November (2010) as partners in the Eagle Ford Shale play in south Texas

PetroChina and Encana are looking to partner in the British Columbia shale gas project; that is currently being reviewed by the Canadian government. PetroChina is part of the China National Petroleum Corporation, another state-owned entity

[Cog]

I don't think Graeme has ever heard of the Export Land Model. Maybe a trip over to TOD would help the poor lad out.

[Graeme]

I was aware of the Land Export Model and it will have very important implications for the USA in view of the forthcoming decision by the Obama administration to grant permission to construct the Keystone pipeline. This will be a difficult decision because on the one hand America will need oil supply in the short-term from Canada but in the medium to long term, this project will likely become uneconomic as the global solar industry starts to ramp up in a few short years.

[CaitlinSawage]

This is an interesting thread and I would like to commend on what the author is reiterating about its purpose. I agree that North America will soon become energy independent and I guess, it has a bigger possibility. Recently, I read from an article from here North Dakota oil boom brings jobs aplenty that North Dakota oil boom creates a big help to oil industry. North Dakota has been able to avoid the deadening economic bust of the recession. CNN notes that while six-figure salaries are achievable, the road to the cash isn't really for everyone. As a result of the Bakken oil formation and the ensuing jobless rate of only 3.5 percent - the lowest in the country - North Dakota is in the middle of a huge oil growth. Careers are plentiful, yet grueling work hours, lack of housing and harsh winters have kept several from tapping the well of opportunity. I guess, North Dakota is really a good shelter to start up after the depletion.