[Pops]

Really good article and some new charts (new to me)

Peak Oil - Why We need to Plan Now

[The Practician]

I sought articles and analysis on projected house prices, and came across two divergent predictions: level/growth (most stories); and bursting bubble. I noticed a clear difference in the flavor of the articles. The bursting bubble stories used lots of numbers, stats, and analysis. I’m a sucker for that....Meanwhile, the level/growth narratives tended to be hand-wavy: San Diego was such a desirable place to live that homes would not lose their value. The expanding diversity of jobs into high-tech further insulated San Diego against downturn. The activity was not speculative because families—not investors—were actually buying and moving into homes at the elevated prices. We had reached a new normal in prosperity.

This Is probably the main reason I count myself a member of the doomer camp. I think of predicting the future of anything as a sort of complicated
Algebraic equation. You take a number of variables, decide how big an issue they are, assign them positive or negative values, and then you do the math. It seems to me that most of the more serious or creditable people in the Doomer camp are doing their math with a larger number of variables, and are able to provide more rational and comprehensive justification for whatever particular value they assign to those variables, than even the most sober cornucopians.

[DomusAlbion]

Excellent article. I posted it on my Facebook homepage for all my friends and family to see.

Now there will be no doubt that I'm the nut in family.

[peripato]

Nothing will be done about peak oil (or climate change, or peak debt - or substitute any number of limiting factors heading our way), until the effects are well and truly undeniable. This is just human nature. By that stage it will be way too late, since, as the Hirsch Report quoted in the article explains, a concerted 20 year transition time is required to mitigate, not prevent, its worst consequences. Until then, lip-service, hand-waving and whistling past the grave yard will rule our actions.

This is why I am a doomer.

[ritter]

Nothing will be done about peak oil (or climate change, or peak debt - or substitute any number of limiting factors heading our way), until the effects are well and truly undeniable. This is just human nature. By that stage it will be way too late, since, as the Hirsch Report quoted in the article explains, a concerted 20 year transition time is required to mitigate, not prevent, its worst consequences. Until then, lip-service, hand-waving and whistling past the grave yard will rule our actions.

This is why I am a doomer.

Yup. And just to point out, the author's title is woefully optimistic. We needed a plan several decades ago. "Now" is too Goddamned late.

[evilgenius]

Worse still will be trying to go forward in the face of climate change, which has such delay built into its effects that decreased fossil fuel usage will not show up for some time. Climate change should be the peaker's friend(making the world slow down usage), but when mitigation occurs only after recognition of an actual physical peak the costs of addressing climate change will wrestle with peak oil mitigation for funding. People will choose peak oil mitigation over climate change mitigation because the economic impact will transpire more quickly. Then they will realize they should be spending on both. There won't be enough money. Fortunately, many parts of the world won't be able to afford to contribute to global warming anymore at that point. The whole thing kind of reminds me of the things Montequest used to say.