[MD]

In January of 2008, right on the visible knee of the price curve, KSA made an announcement. The announcement was made through their normal cultural process. In western terms it said "we regret to inform you that increases to our production will be impossible."

The reasons for their sudden shift in tone were many, and complex (and who wouldn't want to be the fly on the wall for those conversations?); but nevertheless clear to those that had ear to ground.

Now Saudia Arabia has admitted that Tar Sands and Shale can compete with their offerings?

"Plain As The Ass On A Goat", is how that is best expressed in my world.

OK Gang. Go find the quote and prove me wrong, if you can.

(won't f-ing happen)

[Plantagenet]

I couldn't find the statement from the KSA, but Bush said something interesting about KSA in January 2008:

On January 15, 2008 Terry Moran interviewed President Bush in Saudi Arabia on ABC's Nightline. When asked what he might say to the King of Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices, George Bush responded, "If they don't have a lot of additional oil to put on the market, it is hard to ask somebody to do something they may not be able to do."

[MD]

I couldn't find the statement from the KSA, but Bush said something interesting about KSA in January 2008:

On January 15, 2008 Terry Moran interviewed President Bush in Saudi Arabia on ABC's Nightline. When asked what he might say to the King of Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices, George Bush responded, "If they don't have a lot of additional oil to put on the market, it is hard to ask somebody to do something they may not be able to do."

The quote is out there, and it's referenced on this forum. It's buried in a mega-thread somewhere. It's evaded my search-fu so far, dammit.

[MD]

That was bush's response, I think. Maybe a day or so prior to that.

[MD]

Matthew Simmons will be validated as a peak oil prophet for "Twilight in the Desert", eventually. Too bad the knowledge ruined him. He was a good man.

[Pops]

I'm not sure what you're looking for, I find on the 16th of January:

"We will raise output when the market justifies it, this is our policy," Al-Naimi told reporters in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia is Opec’s most influential member and the only one able to boost supply significantly at short notice.

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/property ... eededsound.[/quote]

But this for the first of Feb after the OPEC meeting:

"The condition of the market is sound currently, supply and demand are equal, and global reserves are fine," Naimi said, adding that world inventories were in line with the five-year average.

He said OPEC would have taken action if there was a need, adding: "But the condition now shows that all market fundamentals are sound."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2008/02/0 ... 1720080201

[MD]

Thanks Mike, and that might be it. From 2006 through mid 2008 I followed and reviewed Saudi announcements with great focus and interest, and there was a discernible shift in tone right around that time. It's important in that it validated "Twilight in the Desert", in a big way.

Arabian Sweet Light can't compete with Tar sands and Shale?

Really?

Seriously?

Are you kidding me?

[seahorse3]

MD there has also been a discernible shift from everyone else on PO - the IEA has done an "about face" from it 2004 optimism and so have many others. The tone on these boards has changed as well. I came Herr in 2004 not knowin what to believe about PO and am now firmly convinced it is a very serious issue that underlies everything going on. I further believe that we are likely to see actual declines in world oil production around the 2015-2016 time frame based on SA's own PO forecasts and that of Kuwait. I remain , however, powerless to know what that means exactly for all if us, but suspect that the Arab Spring in the ME, Europe and now the US is only the beginning

[copious.abundance]

I don't know what the Saudis said in January 2008, but in late June 2008 they said they would increase production:

Saudi Arabia to produce more oil

Last Updated: June 22, 2008: 2:41 PM EDT

JEDDAH, Saudi Arabia (CNN) -- Saudi King Abdullah confirmed Sunday that his country will increase daily oil production to 9.7 million barrels from 9 million to counter the sharp rise in international oil prices.

The Saudi petroleum minister, Ali I. Al-Naimi, said the country will reach the 9.7 million level by July. The announcement comes after Saudi officials had announced modest increases.

It would be Saudi Arabia's highest production rate since 1981.

[...]

And indeed they did raise production, possibly not exactly to 9.7 million bpd but at least around 9.5 (which they have more recently exceeded).


LINK

Shortly after they ramped up production in mid-2008 was when the price of oil started crashing. I can't prove it, but I've always suspected their increase in production back then was at least one factor in why the price started tumbling shortly afterwards.

[copious.abundance]

*crickets chirping*

[MD]

*crickets chirping*

Never did find the particular quote I was looking for. IIRC it was never discussed on this board, at least not beyond a quick pass.

I guess if I really want to find it I will have to get busy with my google-fu and start digging.