[PeakOiler]

Time to make your guesses for WTI in 2012. We're going to follow the same rules put down by pup55 in the previous games.

The reference for WTI will be:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/xls/PET_PRI_FUT_S1_D.xls

]The rules this year will be the same as before.
All participants will guess the high, low, and close of the Nymex Futures Contract #1 price as posted by the EIA in this spreadsheet: One forecast per participant. You can change it if you want up until the deadline.
<<snip>> Please try to have your guesses in by January [8th], which gives you a week after New Year.

[Pablo2079]

High: $127.44
Low: $76.87
Close: $86.12

[dolanbaker]

type, high, low, close
WTI 125,91, 112
Brent 134, 101, 115

[Plantagenet]

type, high, low, close
WTI 103,77, 85


Europe is going into recession, China is beginning a real-estate collapse like the US saw in 2008, and the US economy is so weak it will eventually follow Europe.

Oil demand will fall in 2012 due to a global economic downturn.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Europe is going into recession, China is beginning a real-estate collapse like the US saw in 2008, and the US economy is so weak it will eventually follow Europe.

Oil demand will fall in 2012 due to a global economic downturn.

Planty, you're half right.

Yes, Europe and the US will become mired in a recession ... and this will lower oil prices.

However, Banana Ben has already hinted that he'll unleash QE3 -- and whatever else it takes -- to avoid a recession. The UK has already commenced yet another round of QE.

So the question is: what effect will this massive money printing have on the price of oil? Oil could easily hit $120 or $130/bbl based on QE alone. Throw in reduced supply of light/sweet crude (due to peak oil), and the price could hit $150/bbl. Add to that the likelihood of tensions in the Middle East / N. Africa ...

[basil_hayden]

As I stated in the 2011 thread, I think I'm going to throw caution to the wind and cash in most of the virtual love and respect I've banked for the past few years. And I really value that so I hope I don't blow it.

But something about 2012, whether it's the Mayans or Iran or the weather, or just people's conception of the Mayans or Iran or the weather as well as other DOOM!nosticators, leads me to believe we're in for a wacky year for oil price. As I stated at the end of the 2011 thread, I'm going with my version of roccman and Repent's DOOM! guesstimate. Regardless, I think folks will be running around prepping for the end of the world whether it comes or not - using fuel and driving up prices, even as domestic production ticks up. (Note to self: this will lead to a fall early in 2013.)

Pipelines reversing direction = WTI moving up to Brent, not the other way around, as we've seen. Strong dollar, weak Euro means more euros per barrel, hence higher Brent then higher WTI, then weaker dollar. Economy is doing all it can to pull up and not nose dive, even with bank losses have halved this year. Although Chevy will sell 12 more Volts, Libya's not coming back for awhile, it'll be Spring in Arabia again soon only a year later and a year meaner.

So there's a new floor established (first quarter), making a new high likely (third quarter), and a volatile undulation in between (second quarter) and a chill effect to the end of the year which amounts to a SWAG (scientific wild-assed guess).

So I got Ibon's soup bowl out, filled with warm water, added a dash of bunker oil from roccman and this is what it had to say, even though it feels so wrong:

type, high, low, close
WTI 157.75, 94.50, 115.25

I have a feeling I'll be wearing it, but you only live once!

[Pops]

Just some random stuff:

Barclays says Chinese consumption will rise almost 5Mbd by 2015
US Diesel and heating oil supplies are heading down - 16% down in 8 weeks - exports?
China will start filling their SPR soon (?)
OPEC raised it's price forecast to $85-95bbl
IMF says MENA break-even costs are $80-100bbl

Last year I was pretty right about the world price. I think the SPR release and KSAs increase along with the glut in Cushing and increased liquids smoothed the shock of Libya enough to prevent the US economy from going off the cliff. We may slide into a second leg down but I don't think we are going to plunge.

I think that holds for Europe as well, I mean seriously, how many people are going to be surprised by something bad happening? LOL! This isn't like '07-'08 when everyone thought the party would go on forever.

TTFN

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-2 ... ys-1-.html
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... 6K50YN.DTL
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 63006.html
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-1 ... grows.html
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspecul ... 100-oil/3/

[Plantagenet]

Europe and the US will become mired in a recession ... and this will lower oil prices.

However, Banana Ben has already hinted that he'll unleash QE3 -- what effect will this massive money printing have on the price of oil? Oil could easily hit $120 or $130/bbl based on QE alone. ...

QE that causes oil prices to go to $130/bbl will produce an even deeper recession.

Even Bernanke has figured that out by now.

[Pops]

OK so here's my latest chart:



It's Brent for obvious reasons, right now at about a $10 premium to WTI.

I gotta say, the way the price is bouncing down that economic ceiling line I pulled out of my ear a year ago is pretty interesting.

Also interesting is how the rate of increase from 04-07 is roughly the same "inflation slope" as one plotted from mid-'09 to the first of this year (the green lines are the exactly the same angle). I think that indicates the increasing cost of Magic-Unconventional-Liquids replacing cheap conventional oil. Interesting too is it increases not at a constant rate but at a constant amount of $8-$10 a year?

The 2 red lines give a $40 price range but the green "cheap oil replacement cost premium" and economic ceiling line cross paths about vacation time next year at about $110bbl - say $100bbl WTI at todays premium. Right where I've said in the past the hurt-line would be this time...

But then that's where the guesswork comes in, what happens next?

[Daniel_Plainview]

Even Bernanke has figured that out by now.

But he hasn't figured that out ... just wait and see ... he will print.

[sparky]

.
A really tough call for 2012

usually it's follows the trends , plus a little blak duck for unforeseen event
now there is no trends but good chance for a whole flock of black swans

WTI /Brent spread to carry on ? ....or how to defuse gravity
Iran , will they ....wont they ? .....tankers burning in the straights of Ormuz
Europe going down , China going flat , the U.S. going sideway ?
will the dollar keep its inflated value ?
something else , somewhere else ....the Saudi kingdom having some strife
a nutcase elected prez ,
the Canadians being sick of being ripped off

anyway , let's dive
.......high 130$ , low 81 $ , close 110$

[eXpat]

High: $120
Low: $95
Close: $100

[sparky]

.
we are not the only ones having some soul searching

from Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/ ... OY20111122

"....In the most recent Reuters oil price poll, only two of 35 analysts predicted Brent would slip below $90 per barrel next year and the average forecast was that prices would be close to where they are now, around $106 per barrel. <O/POLL>

Goldman Sachs, the most accurate oil price forecaster over the last year, now sees Brent at $125 per barrel in 12 months.

Amrita Sen, oil analyst at Barclays Capital, argues the oil market is caught between competing and intensifying influences.

Outside the oil market, the possibility of a major economic failure has grown, but inside the market, spare capacity has eroded and physical market strength has increased, she said: "In our view, it is only the fear of macroeconomic discontinuities that is keeping a lid on oil prices. Without that fear, we believe that Brent would have already reached an all-time high and climbed past $150 per barrel."..."


.

[Pops]

The reversal of the 500-mile (805-kilometer) Seaway pipeline from the trading hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, to refineries on the Gulf Coast is intended to clear a supply build-up that depressed prices of West Texas Intermediate oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The shift is attracting more oil to Cushing to meet demand once crude flows change direction. Inventories grew 6.4 percent to 32 million barrels in the past seven weeks, according to U.S. Energy Department data.

"We expect the WTI contango to increase in coming months as Cushing inventories rise in anticipation of the reversal," David Greely, head of energy research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, said Nov. 23 in a phone interview. "After the reversal of the Seaway, these barrels would move down to the U.S. Gulf Coast, drawing Cushing inventories back down and reducing the contango."

Oil for January delivery gained 0.8 percent to $97.53 at 12:46 p.m. on the Nymex. That compares with $97.68 for the February contract, a premium of 15 cents, down from 20 cents on Nov. 23.

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... z1f2cy161M

So the seaway increases stocks before it decreases them...

[obixman]

Did OK in '10 - but unless major porblems hit the owrld, I'm not doing well this year....

Putting on my aluminum foil cap with the christmas tree lights....


High - 142.5
low - 89.5
close - 113


I think our politicians will muddle through without destroying our economy - yet.
Demand will rise - a bit
And a slight risk kicker for whatever happens with Iran

[davep]

WTI

High - 128
Low - 85
Close - 125

[Midessa]

I'm feeling pessimistic. I have seen too many oil boom town articles in the last year (mostly about N. Dakota), it's time for a bust. I hope that I am wrong, and my track record says that I will be, but here goes:

WTI
high $120
low $35
close $65

Edit: Forgot to mention, I agree with Plantagenet for the most part, the Eurozone still in trouble, China's real estate bubble popping, and the U.S. still weak, paints one ugly picture. I also agree with Daniel Plainview, except that I don't think the QE will prevent the price collapse.

[jdmartin]

High: 117.50
Low: 90.50
Close: 108

[SteinarN]

Last year I added ten dollars to the low and close compared to my 2010 prediction and keept the high. Seems like that turned out reasonably good.
But for next year... I think the WTI will catch up to the Brent... mostly...
The Brent have been howering around 100 to 120 most of this year. Add ten dollars to that and we have 110 close and 130 high. Subtract at least ten dollars for the low to allow for som bad economic news and we get about 90 for the low...

That's my preliminary thoughts. I will wait to early january for my "official" prediction.

[PeakOiler]

<<snip>>
That's my preliminary thoughts. I will wait to early january for my "official" prediction.

Yeah, I'm going to wait till the end of the month before I post my guesses. I've been playing with the numbers...

Reminder to players who have already posted their guesses: We are still using pup55's rule that you can change your guesses up to the deadline.

I've been putting everyone's numbers into the 2012 spreadsheet (without EIA data of course). Please check your numbers to make sure I entered them correctly so far.



The data are sorted by "Overall Difference", (descending).