[Arthur75]

With Italian and Greek debt default imminent, I suspect France and its bigger brother Germany will have plenty to worry about rather than worrying about US fuel tax policy.

I thought this was a peak oil forum, it isn't ?

Do you know for instance that the first oil shock has strictly nothing to do with the so called "Arab Embargo", but everything with the US 1970 peak ?

But that it is still labeled "Arab Embargo" on most Americans oil price graph ?

[Arthur75]

And your comment on labeling on US oil production graphs is well taken, but the embargo is what happened, so it is fair to mention it. Besides, what happens if someone had labeled it "peak US oil" and had been wrong?

No it isn't what happened, and too bad James Akins isn't there anymore to explain it better, but I'm sure the info can also be found elsewhere, anyway, no time now for the whole story very briefly (and some dates might be false)

1) 1970 US peak : Nixon asks Akins to do an audit of capacities, first US fuel shortages
2) Akins go around towards US companies, explaining it is for a secret report not to be provided to the press
3) result : we are in a complete mess, no additionale capacity (also given to some OECD guys)
4) the majors, US diplomacy, Akins, start realizing that oil (then at $1) is way too cheap for them to be able to start Alaska, GOM, North Sea. Also to maintain a higher market share (energy security rings a bell ?), and anyway higher price always better for the majors
5) OPEC Meeting in Algiers in 1972 where Akins (then US ambassador to KSA) spells a price "why not 4 or 5 ?"
6) quota system is started (ie OPEC countries limiting their prod, price rise)
7) Then the Embargo story : never effective towards the US, tankers were going from KSA through Bahrain towards Vietnam especially for the US Army
8 ) Some senators (two of them) were starting to have strong voice against "the arabs", Akins asked if he could tell them the truth, he did, they shat up, never any leek

And by the way overall that's the picture on some peak oilers site as well, for instance :

In retrospect, the U.S. oil peak might be seen as the most significant geopolitical event of the mid to late 20th Century, creating the conditions for the energy crises of the 1970s, leading to far greater U.S. strategic emphasis on controlling foreign sources of oil, and spelling the beginning of the end of the status of the U.S. as the world's major creditor nation. The U.S. of course, was able to import oil from elsewhere. Mounting debt has allowed life to continue in the U.S. with only minimal interruption so far. When global oil production peaks, the implications will be felt far more widely, and with much more force.

http://www.energybulletin.net/primer

Most of this from a book and documentary "la face cachée du pétrole" (P Barberis and Eric Laurent) (great doc with plenty of key guys interviewed : Akins, ex KSA oil minister, Collin Campbell, Matt Simmons, Gorbatchov, Some Berkeley professor, some other guys, etc, archive vids of key meetings, etc), unfortunately exist only in French And German to my knowledge, available on youtube and dailymotion.

And then you have the story of the 80s with Reagan, and deal with the Saudis in order to bring USSR down by having them increased their prod (it worked) with before the US embargo on some tech to build gas pipeline before from USSR to Europe.

And of course the older ones, like the Mossadegh at UN, CIA/MI6 coup in 1953, Shah, all the stuff with Kissinger (KSA oil minister go see the Shah as KSA king wants to now why Shah wants to raise the price again, Shah answers but it's the Americans that wants to increase the price ask Kissinger, KSA pissed off he didn't get the info directly, etc)

Meeting KSA king Roosevelt at the end of WWII switch Brit to US influence, in between WW and even before, full split of the pie between the "seven sisters", etc

Again : the ignorance from Americans on this, and US peak oilers in particular (and lack of interest) is simply stagerring. (quite funny when they criticize "the others" for being sheeps and all)

And by the way Embargo was only on Holland and the US, as not effective towards the US, don't see how it could have impacted the price in a major way.

Don't forget as well fully dropping Bretton woods in 1971 (full debasement from Gold) and switch toward what is also called petro dollars.

[Bruce_S]

Again : the ignorance from Americans on this, and US peak oilers in particular (and lack of interest) is simply stagerring. (quite funny when they criticize "the others" for being sheeps and all)

This perhaps relates to your prior statement about whether or not this is even a peak oil website. Think about it for a second, what contribution have American peakers done for the movement besides generate the ability for everyone else to laugh at us? Kunstler, Simmons, Savinar, Ruppert, all walking punchlines, versus serious scientists like Laharrere and Campbell, men of stature and serious measure like Saleri and Fatih, Yamani? Hubbert is about the only American worth taking seriously, maybe Deffeyes? Maybe.

[Arthur75]

This perhaps relates to your prior statement about whether or not this is even a peak oil website. Think about it for a second, what contribution have American peakers done for the movement besides generate the ability for everyone else to laugh at us? Kunstler, Simmons, Savinar, Ruppert, all walking punchlines, versus serious scientists like Laharrere and Campbell, men of stature and serious measure like Saleri and Fatih, Yamani? Hubbert is about the only American worth taking seriously, maybe Deffeyes? Maybe.

I think the info is there with different personalities, you also have the Club of Rome Meadows report, and the finiteness of world natural ressource also predates Hubbert and peak oil.

but anyway, what is Amazing is also simple historical facts like the US peak in 1970 which is still quoted as a theory, and getting all the diplomacy that went around it through also clear recorded historical facts can be an eye opener as well as all the technical stuff seems to me.

[Pops]

It would have been kinda hard for OPEC to cause prices to rise by limiting production if there were spare capacity elsewhere.

OPEC was first proposed sometime in the '40s by Venezuela and finally created in 1960, I doubt they were thinking of soup recipes. But way before OPEC nationalization I kinda think it's probable "The Seven Sisters" had been fixing prices, they controlled 85% of production. As well, I'd not be surprised if Rockefeller and friends had been friendly on prices levels since way back in the '20s.

Your book left out a few chapters.

[Arthur75]

It would have been kinda hard for OPEC to cause prices to rise by limiting production if there were spare capacity elsewhere.

What do you mean ? OPEC quotas didn't start from OPEC beginning, and US prior peak was top producer.

Not sure what is your point, you're the one mixed up seems to me.
What I am saying is not full blown secret or revelations at all, the info is there.

In this doc there is this Lebanese guy (from some Arab oil organisation in Paris) saying that prior to 72, the contracts from major Arab OPEC providers were sacred (coranic law and all), and even if OPEC predates first shock the quota policy and prod limitation (in fact done with full US diplomacy and western majors agreement, hand in hand, as this Berkeley guy is saying) is indeed what triggered first oil shock, and could be fully efficient since US peak (from OPEC point of view, making them true swing producer), and was also needed by the majors to start more expensive plays, do you deny that or what ?

[Bruce_S]

It would have been kinda hard for OPEC to cause prices to rise by limiting production if there were spare capacity elsewhere.

What do you mean ? OPEC quotas didn't start from OPEC beginning, and US prior peak was top producer.

Not sure what is your point, you're the one mixed up seems to me.

Not to me. The TRRC was the price setter prior to US losing its role as swing producer, which is a much more important concept than just peak oil for a single country.

[Arthur75]

Don't think so, quite clear that the peak of the then top producer in a globally growing world economy is the major event, and again :
- Oil was dirt cheap and needed to be more expensive to start the new plays (fuel shortages started in the US at US peak, before the "Embargo" and all that)
- Opec was willing (and suggested as well) to put quota and restrict its prod so as to increase the price
If this had'nt been done, the US would have been even more dependent on foreign oil, not to forget that the US having some kind of non written defense agreement with KSA against Iran and its neighbours (since Roosevelt Ibn Saud meeting), or even simply the Saud family against others clans(it's what it is), this of course goes with the related power influence.
- The Embargo was never effective towards the US from KSA, Akins is very clear about that (and I'm sure traces about the two senators voicing against "the arabs" can be found), Akins interview starting at 17:26 below about his :
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xj4eum ... e-2-2_news

[Bruce_S]

Don't think so, quite clear that the peak of the then top producer in a globally growing world economy is the major event,

Sure it is. But major event hardly means it was the only major event of the time, and the embargo was certainly another major event.

- Oil was dirt cheap and needed to be more expensive to start the new plays (fuel shortages started in the US at US peak, before the "Embargo" and all that)

Oil had been dirt cheap since about 1930, and it was because of the TRRC from then until cheap oil disappeared in about 1970. Once a cartel became the price setting device, rather than the TRRC, all bets were off. I agree with you that more expensive oil was needed, and it was because OPEC was demanding it, implicitly or explicitly. Good thing we had a preview for what global peak oil might look like as well, otherwise people would have been really worked up 6 years ago when it happened.

If this had'nt been done, the US would have been even more dependent on foreign oil, not to forget that the US having some kind of non written defense agreement with KSA against Iran and its neighbours (since Roosevelt Ibn Saud meeting), or even simply the Saud family against others clans(it's what it is), this of course goes with the related power influence.

Power influence is good. Better us than other countries of much less significance. It helps to be one of the big boys on the block sometimes I guess.

[Arthur75]

"and the embargo was certainly another major event."

No, again, the Embargo was never effective towards the US from KSA, see Akins above at 17:26 (too bad this stuff is dubbed) , this embargo stuff from US point of view is a myth, OPEC quotas are not.

And just realize what the US peak meant for a growing US and world economy at the time (considering the growth prod curve right before the peak), again of course the first oil shock should be labeled "US peak", saying otherwise is ludicrous, just look at the drilling activity that went on for instance. Point is labeling it "Arab Embargo" was easier towards American public, and allowed a cover up towards the US citizens, that is all.

I mean come on, you ask an average american, not only he is not aware of peak oil, but he doesn't even know the US went through a major prod decrease of 50% since 1970 !

[Bruce_S]

"and the embargo was certainly another major event."

No, again, the Embargo was never effective towards the US from KSA, see Akins above at 17:26 (too bad this stuff is dubbed) , this embargo stuff from US point of view is a myth, OPEC quotas are not.

OPEC quotas might not be a myth, but they are usually irrelevant in the games of geopolitics played out amongst its members. The TRRC did a much better job at creating stability, as evidenced by the real price of crude from 1930 to 1970.

And just realize what the US peak meant for a growing US and world economy at the time (considering the growth prod curve right before the peak), again of course the first oil shock should be labeled "US peak", saying otherwise is ludicrous, just look at the drilling activity that went on for instance. Point is labeling it "Arab Embargo" was easier towards American public, and allowed a cover up towards the US citizens, that is all.

What coverup? Within a matter of years Jimmy was telling everyone we would soon be running out of oil, passing laws banning the use of natural gas for creating electricity because we would be running out of that as well, and such mindless nonsense related to resource issues has been the same every since. It isn't a coverup when simple ignorance and apathy explains it even better.

I mean come on, you ask an average american, not only he is not aware of peak oil, but he doesn't even know the US went through a major prod decrease of 50% since 1970 !

Why should they? Even global (versus US) peak oil a few years back turned out to not be all that bad, similar to the 70's and early 80's in the US even. Those energy crisis certainly taught some of us the right lessons, but those born on or after 1970? Heads buried in BAU sand, and still don't understand why even simple things, like a bunch of them thinking that housing prices only go up, can blow up huge chunks of the certainty and belief they had in the system from the time they became adults. It is about time they got a dose of reality, and peak oil, while not a widely known topic probably, isn't any worse than, say, those who know what happens when they flip a light switch.

[Arthur75]

The TRRC did a much better job at creating stability, as evidenced by the real price of crude from 1930 to 1970.

Ok, stability in ressource extraction, better stop here then, full stop.

[Pops]

So, OPEC, the US government and the oil companies all got together and conspired to raise oil prices so the OilCos could drill in Alaska?

Did your book mention that the OPEC countries were in the process of nationalizing their oil - those that hadn't already? First by raising the "tax" oil companies paid, raising the price outright or finally kicking them out altogether?

Or that while OPEC was raising prices on the one end the US was imposing price caps on the other?

Hardly a way to run a good conspiracy, especially since the oil cos controlled 90% of the oil market prior to that time.

EIA

From 1948-1970 the Texas Railroad Commission had kept prices steady, growing from $2.50 to $3.25

@1 OPEC begins to assert power; raises tax rate & posted prices
@2 OPEC begins nationalization process; raises prices in response to falling US dollar.
@3 Negotiations for gradual transfer of ownership of western assets in OPEC countries
@4 Oil embargo begins (October 19-20, 1973)

Obviously, had the US unlimited spare capacity none of that would have mattered but alas we didn't.

[PrestonSturges]

I remember everyone sitting in gas lines in 1978, so it was big f'in deal. These were also cold years on the northeast US, cold enough that I recall the water main freezing, making the water meter pop off the pipe in a friends basement (no leakage because it was so frozen). There was a lot of concern about the natural gas supply, being able to maintain pressure, and potential systemic safety problems.

[sparky]

.
An interesting take on the great 70ies oil crisis , it certainly tie up a few loose ends
like the fact that the Netherlands were under embargo but Rotterdam Euro-port ,
the main crude entry point for Western Europe, never had any shortage .
At the time the market was dominated by the " seven sisters " oil companies
Standard Oil of New Jersey ;
Standard Oil Company of New York (now ExxonMobil);
Standard Oil of California (now Chevron);
Gulf Oil (acquired by Chevron in 1985)
Texaco;
Royal Dutch Shell;
Anglo-Persian Oil Company (now BP).

this was the high point for those companies , later government oil companies took more and more power