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Oil near $96 amid Europe debt, economy concerns

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Oil near $96 amid Europe debt, economy concerns

Unread postby Fishman » Sat 17 Dec 2011, 08:21:05

So this is how post peak oil plays out. Countries start losing their Moodys, or Fitch's rating, France dropped yesterday, Belgium dropped also. Oil remains high despite poor economic situations. Strange, most of our liberal friends here thought Europe would do so much better, you know, high taxes, strong social support systems. At present Europe looks like toast. People go absolutely batsh%t crazy when you take away their 35 hour workweek, early retirement, complete government dependence. Well, Christmas can be a peak oil preppers best holiday. Ammo under the christmas tree anyone?
Obama, the FUBAR presidency gets scraped off the boot
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Re: Oil near $96 amid Europe debt, economy concerns

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Sat 17 Dec 2011, 20:49:23

Fishman wrote: Strange, most of our liberal friends here thought Europe would do so much better, you know, high taxes, strong social support systems. At present Europe looks like toast. People go absolutely batsh%t crazy when you take away their 35 hour workweek, early retirement, complete government dependence.

35 hour work week has been replaced with even less hours and the early retirement just got earlier for some bottom line is you will rather be unemployed in a "socialist" Europe,at least they still get free medical and regular dole payments for now.
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Re: Oil near $96 amid Europe debt, economy concerns

Unread postby Fishman » Sun 18 Dec 2011, 09:36:08

Shaved, no one gets "free" medical care. Some one has to pay. The IMF has already told Greece they need to dump their universal health care due to the cost. England has dramatically cut back their health care system. The model of " some care for all" means less and less care for all. The dole is getting smaller and smaller, folks will freak out. Sorry, no unicorns, no skittles from the sky.
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Re: Oil near $96 amid Europe debt, economy concerns

Unread postby Cog » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 17:05:29

Fishman wrote:So this is how post peak oil plays out. Countries start losing their Moodys, or Fitch's rating, France dropped yesterday, Belgium dropped also. Oil remains high despite poor economic situations. Strange, most of our liberal friends here thought Europe would do so much better, you know, high taxes, strong social support systems. At present Europe looks like toast. People go absolutely batsh%t crazy when you take away their 35 hour workweek, early retirement, complete government dependence. Well, Christmas can be a peak oil preppers best holiday. Ammo under the christmas tree anyone?


I'm good on ammo but I'm putting together a medical kit that let's me practice everything short of open heart surgery. I'm waiting for a family member to develop a serious cut so I can practice my suturing technique on them. :-D
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Re: Oil near $96 amid Europe debt, economy concerns

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 18:31:24

Fishman wrote:Shaved, no one gets "free" medical care. Some one has to pay. The IMF has already told Greece they need to dump their universal health care due to the cost. England has dramatically cut back their health care system. The model of " some care for all" means less and less care for all. The dole is getting smaller and smaller, folks will freak out. Sorry, no unicorns, no skittles from the sky.

You missed my "for now" disclaimer
and yes I agree someone has to pay for health care, its usually a 1% levy (the 1% pay 1% and the 99% pay 1%)
People don't go bankrupt and lose their house in Europe when a family member gets sick.
and the dole isn't getting smaller and smaller the eligibility rules are tightening up,(mainly for disability pension requirement)the payments remain the same.
I dont believe in Unicorns and I cant see a way out of this long decent,just the occasional dead cat bounce.
In the end it comes down to the hope that the government feeds and houses the Zombies or you go and buy more ammo to shoot them
Either way it requires a financial investment and a fundamental belief in your ability to protect yourself more than you trust the Government to.
We saw how Cuba responded as a Socialist Government after its crisis and we saw how the US Government responded after Katrina.
I'm assuming the European Governments will be closer to Cuba than the US

Maybe you should buy more ammo
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Re: Oil near $96 amid Europe debt, economy concerns

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 19:32:09

For oil and gas explorers, turning reserves into production isn't a cheap business. Thanks to the European banking crisis, it's about to get even more expensive.

French banks such as BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole and Société Générale have long dominated the market for loans to oil companies secured against reserves. But these banks are now raising prices and cutting credit. For exploration and production companies, finding funds could soon get as hard as finding oil.

Reserve-based lending is predominantly a dollar-based business and already quite conservative. Loans, which can run into the billions of dollars, typically are made over three to seven years, shorter than for normal project-finance loans. Banks usually lend assuming long-term oil prices at $65 a barrel, well below current $100 prices.

But European banks have been starved of dollar funding since the summer, forcing them to retreat. The cost of reserve-based loans is now at about four to 4.5 percentage points over the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, compared with 2.5 to three points at the start of 2011, says the head of energy lending at one major French bank.

For companies that previously enjoyed low borrowing costs, that will come as a shock; the chief financial officer of one major exploration and production company says that next year he will need to refinance $2 billion of 2007 loans priced at less than one percentage point over Libor.

Banks from Japan and Australia have been stepping into the gap, some people in the industry say. But longer term their activity also could be hampered by Basel III rules, which force banks to set aside more capital for reserve-based lending.
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Re: Oil near $96 amid Europe debt, economy concerns

Unread postby pawancarrot » Tue 03 Jan 2012, 03:32:45

Crude oil prices rose 8.2% in 2011, the third consecutive annual gain as violence and social unrest spread throughout major oil producing countries in North Africa and the Middle East, sparking fears over a disruption to global supplies.
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Re: Oil near $96 amid Europe debt, economy concerns

Unread postby pawancarrot » Wed 25 Jan 2012, 03:20:47

Crude prices are holding support at 4930 levels and witnessed buying interest, one can buy crude around 5020 - 5010 with a stop loss below 4945 for the target of 5110. Oscillators are suggesting a bounce back.
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Re: Oil near $96 amid Europe debt, economy concerns

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 25 Jan 2012, 03:44:04

....rounding the bend, Light Sweet Crude is losing her long early lead, looks like being overtaken on the bend by Filthy Sludge, Filthy Sludge neck and neck with Coal To Gas but here comes Fracking Licious round the outside and we have a spring for the finish! All the riders are caning hell out of their mounts! It looks like being a dead heat, but the way they are running, well I've never seen anything like it... one of them is going to break a leg... (to be continued) :razz:
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Re: Oil near $96 amid Europe debt, economy concerns

Unread postby babystrangeloop » Thu 26 Jan 2012, 08:59:46

Removed per COC 3.1.8 Messages devoid of content: This includes posts with nonsense characters (ie. flksdhf). This also includes posts with a single word or only containing emoticons. This includes posts on "why was my post deleted", off-topic posts, threadjacking, complaining about links, unedited reposts, repeated mod evasion, and trolling.
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Re: Oil near $96 amid Europe debt, economy concerns

Unread postby Pops » Thu 26 Jan 2012, 12:12:32

So the choice is between the EU sovereigns going bankrupt trying to provide basic services for citizens or the US going bankrupt from trickle up economics, wars, giveaways to the rich and covering the bad bets made by the ownership class?

We've all seen the older version of this chart, this one was updated last September:

Image
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Oil near $96 amid Europe debt, economy concerns

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 26 Jan 2012, 20:53:41

Funny that Europe is in almost as deep as the US despite decades of relatively forward thinking in the EU. Seems to me the US has a serious advantage long term in terms of trade, being both a serious resource producer and having not so much a nanny state culture of dependency. In the long run, the reset button will get hit. When this happens the advantage will swing to the USA. In the time being, efficiency needs priority, which appears currently too little, too late.
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Re: Oil near $96 amid Europe debt, economy concerns

Unread postby pawancarrot » Wed 04 Jul 2012, 04:46:35

Crude oil prices declined after a weak manufacturing data from the United States, Europe and China reinforced concerns about slowing economic growth and its threat to demand for etroleum & its roducts.
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Re: Oil near $96 amid Europe debt, economy concerns

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 04 Jul 2012, 05:06:17

Nope, they declined due to pessimism, neutrality is comparatively positive, so prices are doing what they will do under 'normal' circumstances and peak oil- going up. The whole thing is based on sentiment; up 'til it hit's the economic ceiling.
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Re: Oil near $96 amid Europe debt, economy concerns

Unread postby argyle » Wed 04 Jul 2012, 05:38:00

The biggest benefit in this financial crisis the US has is that it has the US dollar as reserve currency.. (if the national debt was divided among all citizens, then a US citizen would have a bigger debt burden then someone living in Greece).
"People should not be afraid of their governments. Governments should be afraid of their people."
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Re: Oil near $96 amid Europe debt, economy concerns

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 04 Jul 2012, 06:00:05

Yes, we have been through all of that over and over. Put 'dollar reserve status' into the custom search function on this site.
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