[evilgenius]

PeakOil.com deserves its very own 2012 predictions page. More than one, if we see fit. This site has always loved to speculate about the future. We are not always right, but neither are we always wrong.

On that note I am going to offer some of my predictions for 2012 and hope that it encourages some of you to either poke fun at me or to do the same.

I think that in 2012 Vladimir Putin will not get the elected post he covets, but that he will remain in control in Russia.

I believe that the number of countries using the actual Euro as a currency will shrink, to perhaps 12. This may take longer than a year to happen but because anything involving this can happen dynamically I have to place it in this kind of initial timeframe.

Iraq is going to turn into a sectarian mess verging on civil war.

A new understanding of finance may take hold this coming year. I am less certain about this because there are still so many people who demand that what is happening in this crisis must resolve itself one way or the other who are not looking at the math in the middle. Perhaps the shell arguments concerning permaculture or reduced lifestyle sustainability will manage to enlighten some about how sustainability can be integrated into financial theory? It won't just be about making do with less. It will also be about a more equitable distribution and about recognizing that in a system of rights even criminals have rights. What matters is determining whose turn it is, those who already have everything, those that have nothing, or those whose right it is to go next.

The Republicans will nominate a total clown for president. That's an easy one because they are all clowns.

[Loki]

Iraq is going to turn into a sectarian mess verging on civil war.

Fixed it for ya.

The Republicans will nominate a total clown for president. That's an easy one because they are all clowns.

Come on, that's like predicting the sun will continue to rise in the east

I don't generally make predictions, but the following wouldn't surprise me:

The OWS movement will morph into a more effective, widespread protest movement, hopefully moving beyond above its rather pointless occupation of public parks. It will play a major role in the 2012 elections and in moving the Democrats to the left.

The economy will continue to stagnate, if we're lucky. If the Eurozone goes tits up, 2012 may look like 1932 (i.e., a significant deepening of the Great Depression II). Except instead of FDR, we'll get four more years of Obama.

Significant spikes in gas prices in the US as we continue to ride the peak oil plateau rollercoaster. This may be exacerbated by US-Israeli-Irananian idiocy. I thought we'd see $5/gal this last summer, but didn't happen. Perhaps summer 2012?

The US Congress will continue to be a gaggle of rogues and grifters, i.e., the sun will continue to rise in the east

Afghanistan will continue to be a quagmire. Obama may or may not keep his promise to get us out.

The end of the Mayan calendar will produce permanent black outs, widespread cannibalism, and, by year's end, the extinction of the human species. The lizard people who inhabit the center of the earth will inherit our civilization, establishing a 1000-year utopia of New Urbanism, cold fusion, and flying electric cars.

[eXpat]

The end of the Mayan calendar will produce permanent black outs, widespread cannibalism, and, by year's end, the extinction of the human species. The lizard people who inhabit the center of the earth will inherit our civilization, establishing a 1000-year utopia of New Urbanism, cold fusion, and flying electric cars.

LOL!
Following with the spirit I predict:
Rapture
The 3 days of darkness
Apocalypse!!!!
Now seriously, i think the 2012 meme will resonate with a lot of people, particularly now that the economy is worsening. We may see more Waco episodes...

[AgentR11]

I'm gonna go out on a huge limb, because mayhem is interesting...

The following candidates for president all get more than 15% of the popular national vote:
Obama
Romney
Paul
Trump

They all win states.

No one gets more than 40% of the electoral vote.

The disfunctional House of Representatives fails to choose a winner.

Obama attempts to stay in office.

Romney claims he is the rightful President elect.

Both issue orders to the military.
The End.

[Rod_Cloutier]

The banking system continues to collapse in 2012, (a no brainer), and government responds by printing oodles of new money, (like they've been doing for the last 3 years). Obama alienates his core support, (as he's been doing ever since he was elected), Ron Paul support, grows, grows, and grows and he becomes the next president, (another no brainer prediction).

World petroleum supplies continue to deplete at astronomical rates, no change here. Climate change emissions continue to increase, leading to less ice cover in the Arctic. Occupy starts prosecuting, (hanging bankers), with street justice; then authorities clamp down leading to New York, London and Paris burning in riots before the end of the year.

On a personal note, I expect 3-5 bad colds, 15-20 sleepless nights, more extreme local weather events. Long boring days at work, which will comprise most of my year. 20 Surprises, good or bad with the news which are impossible to predict in advance.

In other words I expect more of the same in 2012 as in any other year.

[Plantagenet]

I am going to offer some of my predictions for 2012 and hope that it encourages some of you to either poke fun at me or to do the same.

I think that in 2012 Vladimir Putin will not get the elected post he covets, but that he will remain in control in Russia.

Putin and his party will not win the elections, but they will use fraud to retain control of the government. The first part of this has already occurred, as Putin's party retained control of the Duma through fraud. In the upcoming second election in Russia Putin himself will be returned to power.

I believe that the number of countries using the actual Euro as a currency will shrink, to perhaps 12. This may take longer than a year to happen

Step one will involve the ejection of Greece. Its ejection from the EU will be triggered by the 2012 recession across the EU.

Iraq is going to turn into a sectarian mess verging on civil war.

Thats not a prediction -- thats what happened in 2009. The Islamicists have already arrested and tortured and murdered the opposition and crushed that rebellion.

A new understanding of finance may take hold this coming year.... It will be about a more equitable distribution

The same financial system will continue in much the same way. There will be a recession in the EU which will drag down the economies of both China and the US by the second half of 2012.

The Republicans will nominate a total clown for president. That's an easy one because they are all clowns.

The Democrats will nominate a total clown for president. Thats an easy one because Obama is a total clown.

------------------
FINALLY:

----I predict Obama will be re-elected in 2012, because the billion dollars of campaign money he has pledged to raise from Wall Street and the Banksters will allow him to hugely outspend the opposition, and because Trump or another third party candidate will run and split the opposition to Obama's re-election.



AND, no matter how bad things get in 2012, I predict the world will not end in 2012, as foretold by the Mayan calendar.

[no_wuckin_ferries_mate]

The US will continue its path along its plan. Taking over Iran will be tough but once its over the US will have control over all the oil in the middle east.

China has no chance to stop the US, and once that becomes obvious to the Chinese people they will start a revolution and there will be total chaos and the end of China as a superpower.

Two superpowers remaining: US with all the middle east oil, and Russia with their own oil. They will leave each other in peace.

China's downfall will causes the biggest recession Australia has ever seen, lasting decades.

The Euro will crash, the lazy countries in the south will get back to where they were 40 years ago, donkey carts instead of BMWs.

Germany will stop to support the scallywag mediterranean countries and go back to the Deutsch Mark or a core Euro with Netherlands and Austria. Once that is complete they will have a new Wirtschaftswunder.

So we will then have 2 superpowers US and Russia which will get along well, and the economic superpower Germany which will get along well with the other two.

All others will have to go back to their roots.

I expect that development at least to start 2012, however, it might take years to take shape.

[radon]

Putin and his party will not win the elections, but they will use fraud to retain control of the government.

Can you name anyone who you'd think would win the presidential election with Putin as a contender if it was free from "fraud"? No one at all to even mention (not sure whether this can change with only 3 months till the election date left). Putin remains the most popular politician in Russia, and has a unique advantage of having a proven track record of running the office. This lack of choice may itself be an issue to discuss, but nevertheless it has nothing to do with the vote casting technicalities and alleged fraud.

The problem with these elections is that the bureaucracy may indeed screw up even winnable elections. So the successful candidate may finish up with, say, 64% declared votes while the actual vote count was, say, 54%. Even if he (she) does not really care and would rather prefer to avoid embarrassing accusations of rigged elections. This has everything to do with the centuries old Russian bureaucratic tradition of "Potemkin villages", rather than with something specifically related to the incumbents in place.

China's downfall will causes the biggest recession Australia has ever seen, lasting decades.

Doubt this would happen, at least not as a result of "China's downfall". Worldwide resource constraints mean that Australia is going to be a seller at the sellers' market, an enviable position to be in. Meaning that you would be able to afford the lifestyle of the "lazy countries to the south" without going into debt. At least for a while. As long as the country's security position and international logistics are OK.

[Keith_McClary]

Many
HUGE
VAST
oilfields will be discovered.

(PO.com only allows "small" and "tiny" fonts)

[stephankrasner]

My Predictions:

Fuel: The push worldwide to stop new nuclear plants, and shut down old ones will escalate, right in line with roller coaster oil prices. I do not expect gasoline prices to rise above $4.50/gal at any point. I do expect that 2012 will be a great year for developing new sources of energy like Thorium or Cold Fusion. I don't expect them to come to fruition this year but I think it will be remembered as the year when they got their big push as feasible alternatives.

Politics: Romney will be the nominee and loose, congress will keep 65% of it's incumbents, democrats will control the house and the senate by a slim margin, Obama will not repeal NDAA as promised. 2012 will be remembered as the year when the internet got it's first shackles in the USA.

Economy: If democrats have complete control, the most severe austerity ideas will be averted, some improvement, but nothing more than a percent. public works projects will play a major factor. China will have a housing/employment crash. They will also have difficulty with exports. If democrats have partial control, expect more of the same from 2011 for the USA. Regardless, expect interest rates to rise at the FED. Expect more tax incentives for small(ish) businesses.

I'd give "The lizard people who inhabit the center of the earth will inherit our civilization, establishing a 1000-year utopia of New Urbanism, cold fusion, and flying electric cars." 5 to 1 odds

[Hawkcreek]

I predict that either a Democrat or Republican will win the White House, leading to more rights and liberties being taken away from the American people.

Homeland security will arrest, hold, and torture some Americans without a trial, claiming they were suspected of thinking about terrorism.

Gas prices will increase.

3.2 percent of Americans will begin to realize that there is a possibility that corporations really are controlling the government and robbing the nation blind.

96.8 percent of Americans will continue to worry about the winner of American Idol ,or whether a Whopper is better than a Big Mac.

I figure I can't miss on any of the above - is there a cash prize?

[ObiWan]

My prediction. Peak oil won't matter any more during the coming year than it has in the last 6 since it happened.

[Shaved Monkey]

Prices of electricity,gas,oil and food will rise.
Property prices will either fall where they haven't yet,remain stable where they have massively and rise slightly where they totally collapsed.
More riots,more protests,more civil unrest.
More printing of money.
Gold will go up
Unemployment will do the same as property.
Lower Stock market.
A few countries will default.
GFC V 2.0
Australia will be where unemployed English, Irish,Scottish,Welsh and eligible Europeans come to try and get a job.
More unusual weather events.
The US will continue to "interfere" with any "socialist" nation with a lot of resources.
The US will continue to vote in favour of Israel on every issue in the UN.
China will continue to stamp out any internal dissent.
China will continue to invest in resources globally forging ties with other nations.
China will keep building up its navy to protect its resources.
China will continue to grow,so will India.
The middle east will continue to be a basket case.
So will Afghanistan

Basically BAU

[Anvil]

Lets see predictions 2012.
More Arabs die protesting that god is not great enough to feed them.
The great economic pozie scheme will go kaput, because the only thing people said couldn't go wrong did go wrong.
List of countries to completely collapse because of mismanagement.
India 1 billion people, weak government, and weak people. There county is broke and the market has adjusted accordingly in 2011 for its sudden collapse in 2012. India has also made enemies of most of its neighbours in the good time because of its anti china and pro usa position. I will lol much when India dies.
Euro collapse
Economic collapse will cause countries that have intense overpopulation problems, rely on to much aid and poor government will collapse.
Ron Pual will become the president of the USA.
The Katla volcano in island and some other big volcanos will erupt causing a ice age next year will be the death of global warming and many other countries that will fail to feed there pops on top of the economic collapse will become fail states.

In conclusion i think the status quo will choke on dick and die in 2012.

[Novus]

I think the course of world history will change in 2012 and it all hinges on Ron Paul.

Ron Paul is surging in the polls despite a media attempt to discredit him. They have failed. Too many people have heard him speak now as he is causing an awaking. He will win the nomination and the presidency if he is not assassinated first. One must understand that Ron Paul knows about secrets of the Federal Reserve and what the people behind the shadow banking system are up to. He is a true patriot who will not betray the US in the name of the evil bankers. He will End the Fed if elected. He knows this, they know this. So the show down is set. Whether he wins or looses the status quo is toast.

[The Practician]

3.2 percent of Americans will begin to realize that there is a possibility that corporations really are controlling the government and robbing the nation blind.

96.8 percent of Americans will continue to worry about the winner of American Idol ,or whether a Whopper is better than a Big Mac.

Have you even tried the new "The W" cheeseburger at wendys yet? That thing is delicious, I think it might just give the big mac a run for its money in 2012.

[Cloud9]

Peak oil may very well come in out of the cold and become the topic in Joe Six Pack’s conversation. With that will come the idea that eternal economic growth has come to an end. The realization will hit that many debts will not be repaid. Less and less people are going to want to borrow or lend. Thrift shops and pawn shops will continue to thrive.
China may do something crazy. They may hack our systems and wreck financial markets ending our ability to compete with them for the world’s remaining oil. They could set off fifteen or twenty truck delivered nukes in major cities totally taking us out of the game.
Oil and God will remain a volatile mix. With declining production Saudi Arabia may lose control over its population. We could do something stupid with Iran triggering the above from Russia or China.
Judges and prosecutors may wake up and realize that the high rollers of the real estate ponzie scheme are the ones who wrecked their tax base and looted their pension funds. Nuremberg show trials may result with some of the big boys doing some serious time.
2012 is one of the most psychologically loaded years in centuries. The lunatic fringe may tip us over into chaos by provoking an overreaction on the part of government.
The 1% may panic and tip us into chaos.
My gut says SOS for 2012 but with a 10% increase in the numbers that matter.

[Pops]

I have the feeling that 2012 will be anticlimactic.

Not sure why, maybe I think people are tiring of drama or maybe that's just me. I think lots of folks are conserving more, being more frugal and learning to keep their heads down. Pundits and .gov are no longer forecasting an imminently resurgent US economy (except OF2 of course) but the rise of doomerism and predicting the USs near-term demise is becoming tired as well; the daily drumbeat of EU collapse has taken on the droning quality of Muzak and even China looks to be cooling instead of crashing.

The tea party is over after having pulled a gingrich and the SocSec-powered motor chairs are now parked - there's one I did predict!
Romney v Obama will be a bore after the Repub. Book Tour sideshow. It's too early yet to guess who'll win, but if Mitt pulls a McCain and chooses a Pailin it will be 4 more years of the Kenyan.
The Occupiers will continue the sit-ins on their parents' couch and the various MENA countries will finally be free for a one-time democratic vote for theocratic oppression.

Oil seems entrenched at $100+ despite the "glut" of "new technology". Just to show how prescient I really am, almost 8 years ago in April '04 I wrote:

Long term I’m still worried about the economy and my non-expert energy outlook is flat and even declining prices for maybe 5-8 years, [with] at first gradual then accelerating increases thereafter.

Opps, missed that little blip in '08!

But I've always stuck with the idea that '12-'15 would see the peak of oil production. Not really sure how to fit NGLs/biofuels/syncrude/etc into that prediction. What we now call "liquids" includes all sorts of stuff that burns but costs more and provides less net energy than what we were using just a few years ago. We didn't know what fracking was 8 years ago, but we did say the first half of the oil would be the easiest and after the peak the second half would be the hardest and would take much longer and much more money and much more energy to extract and that would have a huge impact on the way we live.

I can't see how that has changed in the least.

--
Oh yeah, it'll get hotter.

[roccman]

Everything basically stays the way it is until the day after closing ceremonies at the summer olympics (august 12, 2012) - between then (mid august and January 2013) shit changes materially for most on the planet as in:

1) rationing in response to an oil embargo that puts oil over the $192 mark crashing global commerce.

2) martial law in response to #1 and collapse of the JIT system. private citizens possessing guns is outlawed.

3) immigrant roundups across the US (testing the intermment camp levers for the rest of us later in the year and moving forward).

4) potential virus out-break or tac nuc. I think it is more likely a few nucs go off (after the oil embargo event) than a virus, but we are over do historically so a virus is still a contender. the nucs would go off in 'merika - bread basket/east/west coast cities.

5) depending on the timing of events and severity at election time (november) there may not be elections held...i give 51% chance they are not held.

6) Silver to $85/oz

my basis for 2012 being THE year...

isn't it very odd how most universally "know" of the mayan prophecy?

and because of this "anticipation" for something bad to happen...you know dam well the power brokers are gonna leverage this as fear is really their only effective tool in controlling the herds.

google ric clay - and his last interview if you want to understand why i think the summer olympics MUST go off without a hitch.

[Serial_Worrier]

North Korea will nuke Seoul and launch all it's missiles into South Korea and Japan.