[dorlomin]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012 ... k-military

On Thursday, Panetta is expected to announce the results of a Pentagon strategic review, recommending that the US abandon its traditional goal of being able to fight, and win, two wars at the same time. The Pentagon has been asked for cuts of $400bn.

There is an interesting historic president. When the UK realised it could no longer compete with the US and Germany simultaneously in the early 1900s and abandoned its two navies policy of being bigger than the next two navies combined.

America does however have a very soft bed to fall back into. The worlds largest economy the EU and other industrial giants like S Korea and Japan are firmly comitted allies due to need.

America also now lacks the appetite for a bloody conflict. A huge amount of the cost of Iraq was in avoiding US casualties and if the money is not their then the political will will not be there.

Even with a scale back the total NATO defence estabilshment will be huge.

In a tinge of irony the only empire I can think of that scaled back into the protective cover of so strong an ally was the UK in the post WWII era when it was such a close ally of the US. 30 years before there was a widespread belief they were about to go to war over a new naval race! Hence the Washington treaty of 1922 (or there abouts). Britain simply inceasingly handed over comitments to the US as it could no longer afford them. Most significantly in the Gulf of Arabia during Harold Wilsons time as prime minister. From the 19th century until the 60s the non Turkish states had looked to the UK to protect them and afterwards the US enthusiastically replaced them.

Things like that guarentee are not going anywhere quickly. Not while the oil flows.

Tempus fugit.

A more multipolar world but not the end of an Empire just yet.

[SeaGypsy]

If only the US had stuck to a defensive strategic policy, her ability to assist true long term allies were such to come under attack, would not be nearly so compromised as is today. Whilst wrapped up in oil and middle eastern strategic warfare, it would not take much to push over the edge of defensive commitment/ capability theshold.
Perhaps the current strategy will have the breathing space to get through to another phase (far more introverted).

These recent wars have perverted the US' moral position paralelling Vietnam. Outside staunch allied countries the US is seen as a paraiah. Within these is an ever growing groundswell of doubt in the stated agenda. Allies are effectively support bold faced lies by their big brother ally, for militarily they cannot do without it's support.
Morally and ethicly the USA needs to get it's house in order. The leader of the free world owes the world better than the bogus $#it we've seen over the last 50 years.

[rangerone314]

Americans today are sheep like Germans in the 1930s and the German marching songs will be replaced with country songs cheering the next war.

[Tyler_JC]

1. Look at that huge spike in the past few years. That explains a big piece of the huge budget deficits.

2. Defense spending is on track to tumble back down to 3% of GDP by the middle part of the 2010s.

3. Entitlement spending will continue to spiral upward as Baby Boomers get pushed into Medicare by the millions and Obamacare expands Medicaid spending. Social Security is already running in the red, the "trust fund" will be exhausted in short order.

We tried guns and butter...we ended up broke.

Now we're forced to scale back the military to European levels. Mind you, even at 3% of GDP, the US military would still be many times more powerful than the BRICs put together, especially considering that India is a strong ally of the United States (as an obvious counterbalance to China) and Brazil is not a militaristic nation.

Moreover, the US would scale back up its war machine relatively quickly if the world became a more dangerous place.

[dorlomin]

Americans today are sheep like Germans in the 1930s

Nothing could be further from the truth. There is no real comparison but most especially the Germans in the 30s had a very strong living memory of war yet were prepared to be coaxed into wars against great powers where they new there would be general millitary service. Even in the 60s national service was the single biggest factor that brought an end to the Vietnam war.
Today there is even less desire on the part of most people to go to war themselves.

Moreover there is not the political will for a war in the country right now. Some far distant tetchyness with Iran perhaps but no desire for a real war and invasion.

[rangerone314]

The yellow press will be able to drum up the political will for a war.

When the economy and employment worsens and people are incited against Iran for causing oil to skyrocket, recruiting will become much easier.

[careinke]

I always wondered why the German people went along with the Nazi's. The Milgram (sp) experiments gave us some of the answer. People inherently want to believe in authority. We can see the examples now in the US. I present the Patriot Act, GITMO, and the recently signed NDAA as proof the same thing can and does happen in the US.

The sheeple will stay comfortable in their free range slave quarters knowing the government is keeping them safe.

Unlike the German situation, this time it is the most powerful empire ever, with no competition. Popcorn is in order.

[Roy]

I think Rangerone is right.

The Iowa primary results are telling me that people in this country are too brainwashed and too afraid of the truth. Santorum? Romney? Really?

Those two represent the status quo of Mil primacy, big government, deficit spending, currency debasement, and the godawful policy of free trade. Their socially conservative views notwithstanding.

I wonder how so few people can see through the BS. I have almost no hope that this country has the will to change anything before it all goes kaboom.
Whether that kaboom is a major conflict ignited by our constant meddling with Iran, or an economic collapse precipitated by exponentially increasing debt with no hope of being repaid, bird flu, PO, or whatever flavor of doom suits your vision and understanding.

It seems the majority of Republicans and Democrats prefer the US to be the aggressor, prefer the US to defend and support Israel at any cost, and hell over 60% of Americans (if polls are to be believed) think we were all magically created about 6000 years ago.

The only candidate pushing peace is being called insane, unelectable, kooky, et al.

To a warlike and superstitious population of which the majority believes in magical beings who create things (despite any evidence thereof), who believes in US Military supremacy (Deutchland Uber Alles == USA F**k Yeah), that 'they hate us for our freedom', and that any pullback would immediately result in muslim suicide bombers blowing up walmarts nationwide, I suppose any sort of attempt to cut through the propaganda would be viewed as kooky.

IOW, most Americans are not well grounded in reality and accept the MSM propaganda at face value. In that respect we are very much like 1930's era Germans.

I'm glad the Pentagon is abandoning the 2 war philosophy. I just with they would abandon the 'twist their arm with military force till they play ball with our economic ponzi scheme' philosophy as well.

Fat chance of that happening as long as the current power structure is in place. No one, on the left or the right, wants to give up their entitlements, whether that be SS, medicare, energy subsidies for oil co's, farm subsidies, mortgage interest deductions, Pell grants, whatever. Either side is fine with the other side giving something up though.

We will hit the wall. The math doesn't lie. And I'm far from the only one that can see it. And yet our brainwashed sleepwalking population has little concept of it, doesn't want to think about it (too negative), and certainly doesn't want to change anything. Well not enough of them to matter anyway.

Rangerone nailed it. And when you boil it all down, this is the main factor that will be our end. Whether this graph is a symptom of peak energy, peak EROEI, peak militarism, or peak stupidity doesn't matter that much. It is what it is. I'd like to believe that most readers/posters on this site at least understand the exponential function and can recognize one when they see it. You wouldn't be here if you didn't.






.

[Cloud9]

Hadrian's Wall had to be abandoned. The bread and circuses must go on or the center will not hold.

[Pops]

The Army chief of staff, Gen. Ray Odierno, the former commander in Iraq, points out that the Army had 480,000 people in uniform before the Sept. 11 attacks, and at that number was supposed to be able to fight two wars at once.

But the Army proved to be too small to sustain the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and was increased to its current size of 570,000. The Army is now set to drop to 520,000 soldiers, beginning in 2015, although few expect that to be the floor. The reality is that the United States may not be able to afford waging two wars at once.

“That said, there are certain risks with falling off the two-war posture,” said Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr., a military expert at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. “You may risk losing the confidence of some allies, and you may risk emboldening your adversaries. But at the end of the day, a strategy of bluffing, or asserting that you have a capability that you don’t, is probably the worst posture of all.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/03/us/pe ... gewanted=2
---

I suppose we can cut back some:



Cool Budget Chart

--

As oil available for export continues to decline and more importantly our ability to pay the bill, our "interests" overseas that need "protecting" will decline as well.

NA imports very little we can't make ourselves at (for now) higher labor cost. As the price of transportation rises, labor costs equalize over time and perhaps carbon tariffs are implemented, the advantage of cheap labor will be nullified in many industries. That is post-carbon re-localization and part of it is demilitarization and the end of empire.

The corporations that demand protection and pay politicians to get it are wearing out their welcome. They've abandoned the US and I think the citizens of the US will eventually abandon them - but maybe that's just spite...

[gollum]

This is obviously a pullback from empire status, on the bright side maybe if we are able to fight just one war we will be more careful about how we choose it. Internal republican fringe politics aside the American people have had enough of foreign intervention.

[Cloud9]

This is a good thing if we pull back. If we continue at our current pace, the military machine will used up, burned out and worn out.

[dissident]

1. Look at that huge spike in the past few years. That explains a big piece of the huge budget deficits.

It really only spikes starting in 2009 due to the Great Recession. Unless the recession becomes chronic this growth rate will not continue and there will be a spike downward. Also, social spending is always larger in advanced economies than military spending.

I'll wait and see if the US really scales back its military budget by 500 billion. Sounds like political BS at this stage.

[Lore]

I'll wait and see if the US really scales back its military budget by 500 billion. Sounds like political BS at this stage.

All good things come to an end,.... Ancient Roman proverb I believe, spread around by the Goths.

[AgentR11]

Some far distant tetchyness with Iran perhaps but no desire for a real war and invasion.

If you break every bridge, shipping terminal, and dam in Iran, and keep them broken across a summer, do you need to invade?

[Serial_Worrier]

Some far distant tetchyness with Iran perhaps but no desire for a real war and invasion.

If you break every bridge, shipping terminal, and dam in Iran, and keep them broken across a summer, do you need to invade?

That would constitute a massive war crime and would land Obama in the ICC docket.

[AgentR11]

That would constitute a massive war crime and would land Obama in the ICC docket.

And that would matter to Obama or any other US President?
Just not seeing it.

I don't see Iran actually doing anything that would precipitate such an action anyway. If they did though, I doubt any president would give a rats butt what the ICC thought of their war actions.

[dorlomin]

This is obviously a pullback from empire status, on the bright side maybe if we are able to fight just one war we will be more careful about how we choose it.

At half the size of its current budget the US would still be a hegemon so its not a loss of Emire, just a loss of income for the defense welfare queens.

[rangerone314]

Some far distant tetchyness with Iran perhaps but no desire for a real war and invasion.

If you break every bridge, shipping terminal, and dam in Iran, and keep them broken across a summer, do you need to invade?

That would constitute a massive war crime and would land Obama in the ICC docket.

Screw it. Also target their power generation, power lines, knock out water purification and sewage, destroy what few refineries they have since I know they import a lot of gasoline.

[gollum]

This is obviously a pullback from empire status, on the bright side maybe if we are able to fight just one war we will be more careful about how we choose it.

At half the size of its current budget the US would still be a hegemon so its not a loss of Emire, just a loss of income for the defense welfare queens.

We're still strong but I don't think as much as people might think considering the whole globe is our battlefield (VS adversaries that must only project power regionally). The Soviet Union looked strong in 1982, but ten years later it didn't even exist and the fancy toys were sitting in disrepair on airfields and in motorpools. Other than for a temporary window you're only as strong as what your economy will support amd I think the coming cuts are a symptom of that strength starting to break down.