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massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

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massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 11 Jan 2012, 07:47:39

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/massive ... ic-region/

The state-controlled oil company said a well drilled in the Havis prospect in the Barents Sea proved both oil and gas at an estimated volume of between 200 million and 300 million barrels of recoverable oil equivalents.

Last April, Statoil said it had discovered between 150 million-250 million recoverable barrels of oil equivalents in the nearby Skrugard prospect.


Is everyone tired of the media reporting these little pocket fields of petroleum as 'MASSIVE'?

I know it happens all the time but for some reason it just really bugged me this morning so I thought I would point it out and start a discussion of it. If they are right and these two prospects together deliver 500 MMbbl of oil that is less that a week of supply on the world market. Basic mathematics escapes these reporters, as does common sense and basic science ;)

What does it take for them to understand we have to find 80 MMbbl a day 365 days every year if we are going to burn 80 MMbbl a day? Is it just because the numbers are so big they can't understand them? Even worse the article states Oil and Gas equivalent to oil, which is an energy rating not a volume rating. The field could be 50-50 Petroleum to Oil for all we know from the reporting which would have even less impact on the world oil supply.

I think we need new terminology, say 90 MMbbl is one day unit of oil. Then we can say a 1 Gbbl discover is an 11 DU (Day Unit) of oil. It would certainly put the discovery reporting in a much more realistic framework for the general public to understand.
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Re: massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 11 Jan 2012, 08:14:02

Isn't that the problem though? Rather than lack of understanding of the numbers, these reporters really don't want to know what they mean, really. Remember only a couple of years ago oil/tar sands were a hot environmental issue and what happened to that? The sands are now helping to pay part of the interest on the debt, certainly nowhere near plugging the gap, but enough to get the "All they need to do is open the spigots" crowd cheering.

I see the whole charade like a soft psy-op. Feel good garbage for the masses. Maybe it's a good thing, in the sense that most people have no clue what rubbish these numbers are, giving the rest of us a little longer before AHBL.
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Re: massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby Pops » Wed 11 Jan 2012, 09:18:30

I think it doesn't matter much except to various aficionados like us. Most people simply haven't the time to consider such trivia as long as the ATM on the pump works and they can pay the tab.

J6p looks at utility bills and pump prices and fits them into the arc of his knee-jerk biases, Drill Baby and Tree Hugger are gonna think what they will regardless of how facts are represented or "mis-". The only thing that matters is where their income is coming from (or not) and the price signals they are receiving at the moment.

Here is a gasoline price story that came up on Goog, pretty long and all about high gas price. Only once does the word "demand" even appear and the only time supply is mentioned is in the context of MENA tribal rock throwing and how it's affecting "our" oil supplies.

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Re: massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby Lore » Wed 11 Jan 2012, 09:59:09

At this point in time it's become just another political talking point. If gas goes past $4.30 a gallon this summer watch for it to move more to the front of people's minds.
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Re: massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 11 Jan 2012, 10:06:07

Little by little, folks are waking up. But Lore, do you really think $4.40 gas is going to make masses go number crunching on what is a 300 MMbbl equivalent or how long it will fill the collective tank?
I certainly don't.
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Re: massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby Lore » Wed 11 Jan 2012, 10:25:40

SeaGypsy wrote:Little by little, folks are waking up. But Lore, do you really think $4.40 gas is going to make masses go number crunching on what is a 300 MMbbl equivalent or how long it will fill the collective tank?
I certainly don't.


That kind of simple math is just too complicated for the average American fundamentalist droid. They'll just bitch and parrot their favorite pol or media head.
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Re: massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby MD » Wed 11 Jan 2012, 11:53:38

If they would report projected production flow it would be meaningful, but those numbers don't present the desired message.

The math isn't that hard. Mature field production is shrinking by one or two billion barrels per year. Call it four million barrels per day. That's the new production required to hold still. It's happening, so far, but at ever increasing cost. As the ratio of old to new production continues to shift, prices will rise.

It's still 80% old production today, what will the price be when it's 80% new production? There's your $300 oil.
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Re: massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Wed 11 Jan 2012, 12:03:35

Those folks at the TheBlaze are scary. They frequently talk about how they are prepared for a bloodbath where they will hunt down and kill all the liberals. Luckily their average age seems to be about 75.
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Re: massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Wed 11 Jan 2012, 12:10:43

People will think 300 MMbbl is 300 million million barrels of oil so it's a lot more than 300 million and a million is a lot so there's plenty of oil in there.
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Re: massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 11 Jan 2012, 15:22:19

Interestingly in 10 hours life this thread has only about 120 reads, implying that only regulars here are reading whilst the heading goes right over most visitors heads.
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Re: massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby Satori » Wed 11 Jan 2012, 18:44:15

PrestonSturges wrote:Those folks at the TheBlaze are scary. They frequently talk about how they are prepared for a bloodbath where they will hunt down and kill all the liberals. Luckily their average age seems to be about 75.



I just went through a bunch of their comments on different articles
there's a little intelligence that shows up from time to time
but not much
good God
that site is like a bunch of talking rocks :P
how do you get so much stupidity and bigotry in such a small space?
most of those posts make me despair for the future of the human race
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Re: massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 11 Jan 2012, 20:46:30

Lets stay on the subject guys, instead of getting off on political tangents about random bloggers on the internet.

I still think the only way to move PO into the public consciousness is to re frame the debate in a way that is easy to grasp. If you don't think my DU standard will work then what is your better alternative?
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Re: massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby MD » Wed 11 Jan 2012, 20:56:47

Agreed. Preston: try and refrain from highlighting your political agenda in every thread, thanks. We all know you hate republican/conservatives. Your relentless posturing just highlights the fact that you are an extremist ideologue.

:cry:
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Re: massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 12 Jan 2012, 02:05:56

This discovery will increase world production by a massive 0.1% over a ten year lifetime.

You could plot plot graphs showing future production with:

Image

and without:

Image

this massive addition. :lol:
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Re: massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby lper100km » Thu 12 Jan 2012, 22:26:23

Part of the problem is that the oil industry uses obscure units that don’t easily relate to the units for volume and consumption in common use in any measurement system. (That the USA is the only industrialized country not using the metric system is another issue). Who has any real idea of what a barrel of oil means? Also, using M to represent ‘thousands’ is all well and good, but is easily confused with ‘millions’. The rest of the world uses ‘k’ (10^3) to signify thousands and in that system, ‘M’ (10^6) does represent millions, ‘G’ (10^9) represents a thousand million ie an orderly progression of thousands (10^3). Most people using computers are familiar with this.

A petroleum industry barrel is 42 US gallons, equivalent to 159 liters, roughly a 4:1 ratio by volume, but neither has an easy such ‘rule of thumb’ conversion into other units such as cuft, cu metres, acre ft, or whatever, except within the metric system.

I don’t have values for crude oil, but 1 gall US of diesel represents 146,520 kilojoules, 138,874 Btu or 40.7 kilowatt hour of energy. Now how does this mean anything to anybody other than science and engineering types? In any case, is it really relevant to getting the point across?

Taking the OP example, if the conventional reserves are said to be 850 x 10^9 bbls (according to Science Daily, excluding tar sands and shale oil in this 2010 study) the addition of 300 x 10^6 raises this to 850.3 x 10^9. It increases the reserves, but by only 0.035%!

I have always reckoned that the production data is only a part of the equation. It has to be read in conjunction with the known reserves and the past consumption. If the daily consumption is taken to be 90 x 10^6, then simplistically, the time to exhaustion is 25 years. I know, it’s much more complicated than that and too much can happen to make this any more than an academic number, but it is a useful metric to evaluate the rate of change between the marginal increases in reserves and the daily/annualised consumption. Contraction of this number would not be a good thing.

Tanada is on the right track in thinking about how to measure the impact of the contribution of a new or existing field or discovery, by phrasing it in terms that relate to people’s experience and relevance to their daily life, or in terms that can somehow value the find relative to the demand and known reserves. What also seems to be lacking is a general understanding that regardless of new finds, there is ultimately, a finite limit to the oil supply. To be useful, the DU term has to be accepted into general usage in the media.

The chances of seeing a full analysis of the oil situation in the mainstream media is remote imo. Bits and pieces are reported in separated articles or commentaries, but there is never any consolidated accounting of the state of the industry. It’s somewhat akin to financial accounting in that what we have here is the equivalent of a sinking fund, where withdrawals are made over a time period to deplete the capital to zero.

There is too much vested political and corporate interest in maintaining the BAU status quo. Watch the financial pages scratching around for signs of growth, no matter how weak. There can be no official benefit in forecasting the end of oil and taking steps now to mitigate the effects as long as possible. See what happened to Jimmy Carter who had the temerity to speak out albeit somewhat prematurely. No person of authority is going to blow a career by being direct, so BAU will go on until it can’t and the million man marches of the unemployed and dispossessed start.
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Re: massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 13 Jan 2012, 06:43:05

8) Using Day Units is OK but I don't think it is catchy enough to catch on. You need something easily remembered and be widely understood by people texting in IMish. LOL, ROFLMAO etc. Perhaps DBD "Days before doom".
How many DBDs were discovered in 2012? anybody know?
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Re: massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 13 Jan 2012, 07:10:20

vtsnowedin wrote:8) Using Day Units is OK but I don't think it is catchy enough to catch on. You need something easily remembered and be widely understood by people texting in IMish. LOL, ROFLMAO etc. Perhaps DBD "Days before doom".
How many DBDs were discovered in 2012? anybody know?


I don't know anything officially being discovered or proven in 2012 yet, and I think the doom part of your abbreviation would turn off the attention span of most txtrs. What about BAUD for Business As Usual Days? After all that is really what we are hinting at, Business as usual can go on a little bit longer with each proven producing oil field.
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Re: massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby Roy » Fri 13 Jan 2012, 07:27:21

Good responses to this propaganda/fluff piece designed to lull the masses to sleep, partisan sympathies excepted.

What I always revert to if this topic ever pops up in conversation is "reserves don't matter, rate of production matters".

I note that the 'drill babies' (good one Pops) like to say "we've got more oil than Saudi Arabia and those damn liberals and eco-nazis won't let us get at it".

My response is "how many barrels a day can they get out of that shale formation" and the response is typically a dumbfounded look and "there's billions of barrels". My next response is "how many barrels a day are used by the United States?", again most people don't know.

When the facts are presented in a format that is relevant and correct, it puts things in a more realistic perspective. That is not always welcome amongst the Drillbabies or their equally delusional "greenies/electric cars will allow easy motoring forever" crowd.

My analogy: "if you've got a billion dollars in the bank but you can only withdraw $100/day, are you rich?" They can usually internalize and understand that.

Again, facts and reality are not always welcome in America and our media (basically every mainstream outlet IMO) does its level best to conceal, deceive, and misdirect, or tell half the truth, to the detriment of us all.

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Re: massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 13 Jan 2012, 07:48:30

Tanada wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:8) Using Day Units is OK but I don't think it is catchy enough to catch on. You need something easily remembered and be widely understood by people texting in IMish. LOL, ROFLMAO etc. Perhaps DBD "Days before doom".
How many DBDs were discovered in 2012? anybody know?


I don't know anything officially being discovered or proven in 2012 yet, and I think the doom part of your abbreviation would turn off the attention span of most txtrs. What about BAUD for Business As Usual Days? After all that is really what we are hinting at, Business as usual can go on a little bit longer with each proven producing oil field.

Fair enough on the doom comment. BAUD is already in use as signal speed in telecomm. perhaps DAPC Days at present consumption or DAWPC days at world present consumption or DAWC days at world consumption.
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Re: massive 300 MMbbl discovered media reports

Unread postby Pops » Fri 13 Jan 2012, 09:40:29

And even more, J6p sees a big jump in R/P ratio or "Years of Supply" and has no idea that if oil were $1,000bbl we probably would have an infinite supply.
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