[Pops]

This really surprised me:




Don't know why, it makes sense that if you are stuck in your home you might as well fix it up. I wonder if it's about that or is it about "investment"?

Either way, it's pretty dramatic.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/ ... ed+Risk%29

[MD]

It just makes sense, Mike. People see new housing today like they see buying a new car. Fast depreciation.

Traditionally, housing depreciation was expected. The whole concept of the ever-inflating value wasn't seen.

Cheap oil fueled this mirage. Engineering efficiencies guaranteed its demise.

The powers that be can no longer inflate this bubble without destroying the currency.

Rock and a hard place, anyone?

[dinopello]

This certainly agrees with my experience. Last year I was considering a first floor addition to my house for my mother to live in and/or a kitchen remodel. I thought I'd have desperate contractors that would at least be anxious to get out to give me estimates and work through some ideas. Nope, all the highly recommended ones were extremely busy and their prices reflected it. So, I put the projects off for now.

[Pops]

As usual I've been thinking about more income, different income actually and this gives me some hope.

In this case its old wood sash (window) restoration, I and Gypsy talked about it some elsewhere. I like old houses, I'm a passable woodworker, its an off-site process that would be done in my shop (working at home is my prerequisite) and it complements my other "jobs" of B2B graphic design and beef production. And of course in conjunction with good storms, old windows are nearly as efficient and much longer lasting than the plastic replacements so a "green" thing.

[SeaGypsy]

and here I was thinking someone might read my posts and actually look into the substance; who yo gonna call?

[dinopello]

As usual I've been thinking about more income, different income actually and this gives me some hope.

In this case its old wood sash (window) restoration, I and Gypsy talked about it some elsewhere. I like old houses, I'm a passable woodworker, its an off-site process that would be done in my shop (working at home is my prerequisite) and it complements my other "jobs" of B2B graphic design and beef production. And of course in conjunction with good storms, old windows are nearly as efficient and much longer lasting than the plastic replacements so a "green" thing.

Old wood is as good as gold as far as I'm concerned. The old stuff is usually so much denser that even neglected, outdoor trim wood lasts a long time before it might rot (if it ever does). In contrast, new wood rots if you breath on it. Due to this, I do allow that PVC faux wood when I have some trim, facia, rake board etc replaced.

Window people ask me all the time if I want to have full window replacement of my old windows and I say hell no. I love the wavy glass and they all have storms and they seem pretty insulative. Some do have broken sash weights and someday me or a handyman will fix them.

[efarmer]

I am seeing this same trend around my area of Missouri as well. Lots of fixing up and DIY activity. I decided to spruce up my bedroom to run with the pack. I got slip covers for the couch I sleep on out on the back porch and a can of Krylon and made a stencil to put "Efarmer" on my water bowl and kibble dish. Had a spot of coin left so I bought the missus a chocolate bar and told her I would run the space heater out on the porch in the event she wished to come out one night soon and have a cuddle.

My next project is to get curtains for the porch windows so I can remove the newspapers I taped
on them for privacy. On my dream list is a sign for the front yard that says:

"Efarmer on back porch, can of beer required for entry."

[dinopello]

My next project is to get curtains for the porch windows so I can remove the newspapers I taped
on them for privacy.

Don't get me started on window treatments. WTH, I'll start - So, I have these rice-paper like blinds that came with the house and I like them. Kind of minimalist but cool looking only they are really old and dried out so if you mess with them they probably are going to disintegrate. Which, is exactly what my sister did and now I have several that need replacement - freaking window treatments are expensive !

[SeaGypsy]

It's easy enough to take out the sash, take it home, follow the process and reinstall. The problem is with the lining edges and sills. You do not want to have to remove these, because then you are having to rebuild the entire set up/ double-triple the time involved. What I do is:

1/ take off the exterior side facia, this exposes the weights and allows the extraction of the upper/ outer sash.

2/ take out the strips which retain the lower/ inner sash, extract.

3/ cut out all the rot in the frame, in place/ on site, pin up plastic sheet.

4/ set up epoxy/ overflush all repair areas, take sash/s home.

5/ bring back the restored sash/s, sand back and paint repairs done onsite

6/ reinstall sash's. Make sure weights go back exactly where they came from. If they need lightening, use an angle grinder starting at the lower end, If they need extra weight, I use melted lead fishing sinkers, dipping the weight in liquid lead until right.

7/ reinstall facia/ final paint.

[efarmer]

Seagypsy, my Dear Man, I read your post with a jaundiced eye, I reread it several times,
knowing you are a guy who hears a bilge pump running and drifts off to marvelous night-night
like a babe in the cradle. I always liked the game of Clue, racing for the solution, following
the facts, floating theories, chomping at the solution like a dog chewing the wrapper off a
real chocolate bar, knowing it is THE STUFF, and that death is in the cards if enough is eaten
from the pursuit of pure chocolate smell and sensation. So I now think I have it all figured
out in my own mind and am ready to call the GAME.

You are a retired Dentist from the Australian Navy and also an Amateur Gynecologist
who can work on a pitching deck in squall conditions with a miner's carbide lamp on
your head and bare handed.

Am I right????

Best,
E

[SeaGypsy]

Son of a USAF & AAF families. No qualifications in anything. IQ last tested at 148 in 20 minutes when 12 years old. Balanced quest for adrenaline meets hard core rationalist with a mind more open than the space embracing the universe. Something like that.

[MarkJ]

We've had a strong renovation market in some local regions since the housing market in some local regions bottomed 2 to 3 years ago.

Investors, developers, landlords, flippers and other cash buyers bought up many of the fixer uppers, foreclosures and tax auction properties, plus many building lots and much of the acreage for sale.

[SeaGypsy]

I'm too lazy to look for the numbers here in Australia, my experience is direct anecdote. Having a few contacts around the rest of the 1st world it seems this may well be a truly global phenomenon of some import.

[Cloud9]

Same thing in central Florida. New building permits are down 96% from 05 numbers. Lions share of permits pulled are for additions and remodels. Still good contractors are hanging on. The shoddy ones have already been shaken out.

[SeaGypsy]

Yep same here. It's become really obvious that a big chunk of the building industry only knows how to deal with new products. They don't know the old methodologies and they don't like fiddly lines or complex curves. When they do renovate they want 'tear out pop in' not repair in place.
A builder here in his 60's could get a lot more work than one in his 20's or 30's, for these reasons.

[ritter]

The good contractors I know remain busy. From my perspective, we've put money into the house that was in savings (reserving an oh sh!t fund, of course). We were just losing it to inflation, so why not put it into something tangible that we enjoy.

[SeaGypsy]

One of the great things about this business and the current economy, is people rally think they can't do this stuff themselves. My clients are computer nerds and medical people, they aren't going to start pulling their own house to bits.

[MarkJ]

There are more shoddy contractors than ever in some local markets - (unlicensed, uninsured, unqualified handymen, side jobbers, trunk-slammers) working for cash/barter without professional licenses, insurance, plans, approval, multiple permits, multiple inspections, variances etc.

We can't hire many subs and helpers since they don't have insurance, they're not licensed, they'll only work for cash etc.

Many can't be paid on the books since they're not pulling permits, not having jobs inspected, not charging taxes/fees, not offering guarantees, collecting unemployment, collecting unemployment extensions, collecting public assistance benefits etc.

Because of this, many will only perform indoor work, weekend work, after hours work, or rural work where they're not as likely to be reported, or caught by code enforcement patrols.

We call them Trunk Slammers since many drive passenger cars, minivans or unlettered trucks and vans to stay under the radar.


Many don't pull permits, or have work inspected since they're not licensed, and their work won't pass inspection since they cut corners and violate numerous codes in order to lowball the job.

What's really killed the renovation market is the cost and liability of lead and asbestos abatement.

Many of the investors, landlords and flippers remove all the old doors, windows and trim and/or cover walls and siding due to lead paint and asbestos.

Due to the age of much of our housing stock (1800s to early 1900s), many homes have lead paint, lead piping, lead valve packings, lead toilet flanges, lead solder, asbestos - fire chambers, furnace/boiler insulation, siding, shingles, plaster etc.

Many of the older homes still have fuse boxes, knob and tube wiring, cloth/friction tape wrapped wiring, light gauge wiring, aluminum wiring, dirt basement floors, no insulation, no ventilation, no foundation drainage, wet basements, 50 plus year old furnaces/boilers, steam boilers, gravity boilers, coal conversion furnaces/boilers, multiple space heaters, gas-on-gas stoves, buried oil tanks - too much to list.

To add insult to injury, our urban areas with the greatest number of older structures in desperate need of renovation and repairs have very high property taxes, poor school systems and major parking issues.

Because of the above mentioned issues, the cost of bringing many of these homes up to code exceeds the value of the home. It makes much more financial sense to buy a more modern home, a fully updated/gutted home, build a home, or buy a modular.

When I sold a renovated home recently, the buyers jumped on it since it was the only home of dozens they looked at that was fully renovated/gutted. Three buyers bid the price up by 22K.


Some urban areas have hundreds of vacant/abandoned homes in fairly decent shape targeted for demolition due to the above mentioned issues.

We have a fairly decent residential new construction and outstanding commercial/industrial new construction market in Saratoga and some surrounding counties. Much of the new commercial construction here, and in much of the state is multi-unit construction.

Some things holding back new construction is lack of premium building lots/acreage, the price of building lots/acreage, zoning laws, deed restrictions and opposition to many commercial projects, especially multi-unit commercial projects.


As they're currently running natural gas and municipal water/sewer in some areas, developers can now subdivide, where they couldn't in the past, plus cheap natural gas is a strong selling point.



That said, we still have more plumbing, heating, cooling, refrigeration and electrical work than we can handle in most areas. People don't have a choice but to fix these things, plus there's not as much competition due to licensing laws, specialized tools/equipment/knowledge etc.

Government assistance helps as well. The Heating Equipment Repair and Replacement Component of the Home Energy Assistance Program and Disaster Assistance program will pay $6,000 to repair/replace/upgrade heating systems. Sometimes more in special situations.

The Weatherization Assistance Program will also pay for air sealing, wall/ceiling insulation, refrigerators etc.

They've raised income limits substantially, so more people than ever qualify. The same applies to the HEAP and Emergency HEAP programs.

http://otda.ny.gov/programs/heap/program.asp

[vision-master]

There are more shoddy contractors than ever in some local markets - (unlicensed, uninsured, unqualified handymen, side jobbers, trunk-slammers) working for cash/barter without professional licenses, insurance, plans, approval, multiple permits, multiple inspections, variances etc.

We can't hire many subs and helpers since they don't have insurance, they're not licensed, they'll only work for cash etc.

What do you pay them? $10 to $20 hr, No wonder............. You want a top-notch A/C sub, it will cost you $100 hr.