[babystrangeloop]

All evidence of this treachery went down the memory hole
Piers Akerman / The Daily Telegraph / January 20, 2012

This is a matter of serious national security concern but the Gillard Labor-Green-Independent minority government is so conflicted with its stance on global warming and the hated carbon dioxide tax that it cannot bring itself to address the crisis.

Instead, it has tried to hide the evidence.

Unfortunately for them, a Frenchman named Jean-Marc Jancovici has foiled their plans and put the document on the web. It is called Report 117: Transport Energy Futures -- Long Term Oil Supply Trends and Projections.

The report was prepared for the Minister for Infrastructure Anthony Albanese by Dr David Gargett of the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE).

BITRE provides economic analysis, research and statistics on infrastructure, transport and regional development issues to inform both Australian government policy development and wider community understanding.

But in this instance, Albanese and the Gillard government don't want the community to understand what is going on and have removed the report from government websites -- despite the fact that the report actually invites comments.

According to BITRE, Albanese declined to release the report. It has been sent, however, to a number of European organisations (which probably explains how it eventually ended up on the French website).

Albanese has given no reason for not officially releasing the report.

If you seek the report on BITRE's website you will find all reports up to 116 in a neat numerical order but after 116 they are in no order at all. Some are not even numbered.

That's to confuse searchers and make it less obvious that Report 117 has disappeared down the memory hole. ...

Australian Peaky Leaks goes mainstream
Matt Mushalik / Crude Oil Peak (blog) / January 20, 2012

The Australian Daily Telegraph published today a story on a leaked government report (BITRE 117) which (optimistically) calculated peak oil around 2017, followed by permanent decline

The report can be downloaded here:

http://ianmcpherson.com/blog/audio/Aust ... trends.pdf

Thanks to the watchful eye of ASPO Australia:



The all important graphs are extracted here:



... see article titles for links to more

[SeaGypsy]

Better buy a bloody bike ya lazy ozzi fattie!

[dissident]

Yet more evidence that the imminent threat of peak oil is being actively suppressed. A few articles in mainstream media hardly give it the exposure it needs and act as a plausible deniability figleaf.

[Fishman]

Damn impressive read.

[babystrangeloop]

I spent a bit of time analysing the document for authenticity.

The PDF file metadata includes:

D:20091201115739Z00'00'

Which is repeated six times (CreationDate, ModDate, etc.) and no other timestamps are used.

The time that represents is:

Tue 01 Dec 2009 11:57:39 AM UTC

Since the body contains

ISSN 1440-9569
ISBN 978–1–921260–31–5 (in non-UNICODE ASCII 978-1-921260-31-5 )
March 2009/INFRASTRUCTURE 08294

It is likely that the document was output as (or converted to) a PDF later in 2009 than it was registered for publication which would be normal.

Another metadata field is

Producer: Mac OS X 10.6.2 Quartz PDFContext

Which is consistent with the body text:

Typeset in Optima LT Std and Gill Sans MT [Mac].

Note that Mac OS X 10.6.2 was released November 9, 2009 which indicates the publishers kept up-to-date quickly.

Adobe InDesign CS3 (5.0.2) released January 18, 2008.

Doesn't seem likely the document is a fabrication unless it's a very good one.

[Plantagenet]

Yet more evidence that the imminent threat of peak oil is being actively suppressed.

+1

The suppression of peak oil is not just going on in the Australian government. Its the same thing in the Obama administration here in the US and also all through the EU, UN, the media, etc.

[babystrangeloop]

So are Phil Potterton and Dr David Gargett peak oil rock stars yet?

[babystrangeloop]

How do the figures in this report agree / disagree with the current BP yearly Statistical review of world energy ?

If you read the report it mostly cites Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrere.

The claim to fame for this report is that it was dropped with no explanation from the BITRE web site while other documents from the same time period remain.

[babystrangeloop]

Searched on "Yergin"

Stobaugh and Yergin (1979) forecast that world crude oil production would reach about 29 gigabarrels per year by 1985, a level it has yet to reach 23 years later.

cite for Yergin's forecast:
Stobaugh, R and Yergin, D 1979. Energy future, report of the Energy Project at the Harvard University Business School, Random House.

Whoever wrote this report was sassy.

Related quote:

When attention is turned to forecasts of total liquids (see Figure A4), the CERA short-term and long-term forecasts are proving quite mistaken. According to CERA, production of liquids worldwide should have reached 35 gigabarrels by 2008, about 13 per cent above preliminary indications of the actual level. CERA use past production trends plus intended investment and development to derive their shortterm forecast.

[SeaGypsy]

The Oz Guv likes to write reports, have senatorial enquiries and witch hunts.









There's an old Australian story about a magic pudding. It's been in every children's library in the country for NEARLY 100 YEARS. But the Gov needs it's own report about this amazing pudding in 2009... wow....

[Shaved Monkey]

Its a shame the serious press hasn't done a bit about it.
Daily Torygraph is just a rubbish, right wing, low brow, Murdoch anti government,attack newspaper.
not that other newspapers are much better but they are virtually all better than the Telly.
You can tell by the tone its not spelling doom just saying BAU if we dig baby dig and attacking environmental policy for getting in the way of more fossil fuel burning.
Would hope the ABC, SBS or the Fairfax rags ran with it and ran the story along the lines of the SIGTHTF unless we change mining policy and start building green infrastructure.
Surely a mining tax/nationalise the mining industry and the revenue spent on Green infrastructure is the only solution.
Not going to happen and we know why.

[SeaGypsy]

Australia is on a one way track. The pattern was established under Hawk and perfected under Howard, directed by the World Bank. There will be no turn around. Nearly 30 years of corporate law development in public/ private partnerships will see to that.

[Pops]

Charts are here...
http://www.countercurrents.org/mushalik220112.htm

[SeaGypsy]

Scroll down the charts and note ME production plateau at around 7GBB until 2070 odd. I think this is pure fantasy and obscures the rest of the figures.

[SeaGypsy]

Before it was even covered up, it accepted totally dodgy figures, particularly as cited. I think what is really going on is that nobody is getting real figures out of the ME, least of all from the most important present and near future majors (SA/ Iran).

Rather than see this as some evil conspiracy, I think it's simply a matter of a series of regimes poised on a knife edge called ELM. They have no choice but to b/s the world, because they are compelled to b/s their own citizenry to maintain any semblance of order.

Realists in government and business realize they are being lied to of course, but know the consequences of calling the bluff would be far worse than feeding (whilst feeding off) the lie. The rest of us, who might like to know what is really going on, are invariably left guessing.

[babystrangeloop]

Scroll down the charts and note ME production plateau at around 7GBB until 2070 odd. I think this is pure fantasy and obscures the rest of the figures.

It's absolute nonsense and of course throws back the 2016 peak a few years. Now? When do we go over the cliff? Tomorrow?

Seems like we are falling off the cliff in realtime now.

concurrently:

Doesn't take a genius to put two and two together. What used to be the world's richest nation is now in a terminal nosedive.

[rangerone314]

I read much of that report. It occurs to me there should be motivation for some peakers to keep non-peakers in the dark, also. Even the Hirsch Report said 10 years before peak oil occurs would be needed for a crash program to be implemented, like Moon Landing or a Manhattan Project level.

Here we are, a mere 5 years from 2017, and this country is more divided against itself than at probably any other time since before the Civil War, and with no end in sight. No end in sight for the various debt problems either, not a great time to try and finance peak oil mitigation.

Mitigation is unlikely and if enough people figure out in a few years that things are going down the crapper permanently, we might see a run on guns, ammo, seeds, fruit trees, tools, solar equipment, etc, thus driving up the prices for peakers who are not finished preparing.

I once prayed my fellow man would lose his ignorance; now I think I should pray that they stay ignorant for as long as I need to finish prepping.

[SeaGypsy]

Yep, the grand plan can't possibly involve smooth transition or the scale of projects involved would be front page news every day.