[SilentRunning]

that we're at the latest peak of the undulating plateau, where the stock market prices and oil prices are at their highest - and are about to nose dive again as the economy once again tanks?

I am seriously thinking of taking most of my money OUT of the stock markets, and moving to a "cash" position. I've recovered nicely from 2008 - and I see us going back down into serious recession from the current quasi-recession mode.

[SGV]

move all your money away from stocks and banks; use some to prep.

[jbrovont]

Market instruments only have value when someone else values them enough to want them, and they have the liquidity to do so. Ask price means nothing if trade volume is tanking, so I'd act accordingly. If things pop off in the middle east, energy will sky-rocket and you can probably kiss any sentiment akin to investor confidence good-bye.

that we're at the latest peak of the undulating plateau, where the stock market prices and oil prices are at their highest - and are about to nose dive again as the economy once again tanks?

I am seriously thinking of taking most of my money OUT of the stock markets, and moving to a "cash" position. I've recovered nicely from 2008 - and I see us going back down into serious recession from the current quasi-recession mode.

[JohnRM]

Well, we're definitely in that period of time where, barring global recession, oil prices will never come down substantially, due to the fact that no producer is capable of influencing prices to that end. What I call "would-be" demand is increasing faster than new production can come online. The question is; How much faster is would-be demand outpacing growth in production of oil, both conventional and not? We don't have to wait for peak oil. We're already seeing the limits to production growth stunting global economic growth. It is likely that growth will end and many recessions will come to pass before actual peak occurs. Increasing production capacity in Iraq and a few other producers will stave off the most severe consequences for a few more years, but I wouldn't count on smooth sailing, until then, especially if, as another poster said, instability spreads throughout the middle east.

[rangerone314]

I am seriously thinking of taking most of my money OUT of the stock markets, and moving to a "cash" position. I've recovered nicely from 2008 - and I see us going back down into serious recession from the current quasi-recession mode.

I've already shifted from regular stocks to the ETF's (triple inverse): SPXU and TZA, for the ride down. A 33% drop in the SP&500 & Russel 2000 Index will mean that I roughly double my money.

[Mesuge]

Isn't it interesting how from the rear view mirror the surfing on the bubbles of the past decades finally makes sense. He who had the "insight" to jump on the bandwagon first and changed horses at the peak made fortunes or rather preserved his fortunes and multiplied it into the next round, rinse and repeat.

That's not to say there are no newcommers or loosers among TPTB,
but the core cadre knows their game very well.

[PrestonSturges]

Absolutley. I've been out for 6 months. Whenever you hear the phrase "record high," the smart money has already placed their sell orders. They never show the e-trade baby on a bad day.

[AgentR11]

More interesting question, after the next market... correction... what's likely to look good. If energy demand gets hosed by price spike/depression; then producers could very well end up selling oil below their cost, or at best trying to hold on to inventory/reserves (works poorly at scale). Doesn't matter if oil is still an "expensive" $80, if it costs you $80 to produce, it makes for unhappy and unpaid shareholders.

Financials... if the next reset breaks the dollar reserve status, and the Euro remains in trouble; how do you even go about making long range actuarial decisions when you have no idea what your currencies will be valued at 10 years out.

Tech? (gack) Ag? If climate remains with modest change, and population is still soaring, profits could be quite good; but it depends on world trade, which with broken reserve currencies, ought to give anyone the willies.

Last time was obvious, Financials got punched down way low, the government could really only choose between declaring us all bankrupt and in anarchy, or prevent the banks from failing, guaranteeing that in any condition where your cash was worth anything, the valuation of the various non-criminal financials would return to reasonably decent levels.

This time, the bubble is the currency itself, how does a currency bubble pop, and what does it improperly smush on the way down.

[Arthur75]

We don't have to wait for peak oil. We're already seeing the limits to production growth stunting global economic growth. It is likely that growth will end and many recessions will come to pass before actual peak occurs. Increasing production capacity in Iraq and a few other producers will stave off the most severe consequences for a few more years, but I wouldn't count on smooth sailing, until then, especially if, as another poster said, instability spreads throughout the middle east.

We are most probably past peak already, haven't seen Nature jan 26 article for instance ?
We are for sur past peak liquid energy in any case (and the unit should indeed be energy not volume)

[Sys1]

that we're at the latest peak of the undulating plateau, where the stock market prices and oil prices are at their highest - and are about to nose dive again as the economy once again tanks?

I am seriously thinking of taking most of my money OUT of the stock markets, and moving to a "cash" position. I've recovered nicely from 2008 - and I see us going back down into serious recession from the current quasi-recession mode.

You seem to understand the situation since you mention in your post undulating plateau. That's why I think it's pretty crazy that despite your knowledge of peak oil and its consequences, you still have some money on stock markets... I personnaly didn't invest a cent in stock market since I've heard about peak oil. Anyway, as a french, stock markets have never been popular over there.
It's great that you recovered from 2008 with your stocks. But actually, your money was saved with sovereign debt, meaning that the economic system is running out of ammos. Nowadays, countries can't increase debt much more. They have two choices :
- Printing money : meaning hyperinflation. In this case, stock markets could go up while their real value get down.
- Austerity : meaning depression. In this case everything go down, but money, at least until the final crash, will worth more and more.
In those two cases, money going exponential with hyperinflation or going 0 with depression, average Joe will become poor Joe. Or starving Joe.

Invest in hard assets (gold, canned food, utilities...). Arable soil if you are really rich.
Note that my peak oil bible or should I say my "revelation book" is Olduvai theory. Every important decisions I made from 2005 were done with this theory in mind. We are going down the cliff this year. 2012. We are very close from a total breakdown of BAU. The Europe debt situation is grim, oil prices are back around 100$ a barrel and a risk of war is growing around Iran.

[Mesuge]

_
Oh Olduvai, oh Olduvai,
yellow river streams and smoked grass,
just seing those 4horses running by.

Today I feel no more mega corny,
nice little horsie, yuck, come on !?
don't bite me in the da ..
_

This is an excerpt from larger epic Poem called
The last follies of shaved humanoids
prepared for relase by Simon & Shuster on 31.12.2012, advanced copies for review available at your local Mayan cemetery ltd. info desk.

[rangerone314]

More interesting question, after the next market... correction... what's likely to look good. If energy demand gets hosed by price spike/depression; then producers could very well end up selling oil below their cost, or at best trying to hold on to inventory/reserves (works poorly at scale). Doesn't matter if oil is still an "expensive" $80, if it costs you $80 to produce, it makes for unhappy and unpaid shareholders. ...
This time, the bubble is the currency itself, how does a currency bubble pop, and what does it improperly smush on the way down.

After the stock market dumps and hits a likely bottom, purchase UPRO and TNA.

[AgentR11]

I was thinking more sector specific thought, not index funds (however aggressive).

[careinke]

_
Oh Olduvai, oh Olduvai,
yellow river streams and smoked grass,
just seing those 4horses running by.

Today I feel no more mega corny,
nice little horsie, yuck, come on !?
don't bite me in the da ..
_

This is an excerpt from larger epic Poem called
The last follies of shaved humanoids
prepared for relase by Simon & Shuster on 31.12.2012, advanced copies for review available at your local Mayan cemetery ltd. info desk.

What's the point in releasing it after 21.12.2012? JK

[JohnRM]

We don't have to wait for peak oil. We're already seeing the limits to production growth stunting global economic growth. It is likely that growth will end and many recessions will come to pass before actual peak occurs. Increasing production capacity in Iraq and a few other producers will stave off the most severe consequences for a few more years, but I wouldn't count on smooth sailing, until then, especially if, as another poster said, instability spreads throughout the middle east.

We are most probably past peak already, haven't seen Nature jan 26 article for instance ?
We are for sur past peak liquid energy in any case (and the unit should indeed be energy not volume)

We're probably not past peak, when considering conventional and non-conventional sources. We are almost definitely past peak conventional and well past peak oil per capita. I don't think any of it really matters. Whether it is now, already passed, or yet to come, the party is over and there is nothing that will save us. There is no chance of the majority of the human population surviving, and that's a good thing.

[eastbay]

Absolutley. I've been out for 6 months. Whenever you hear the phrase "record high," the smart money has already placed their sell orders. They never show the e-trade baby on a bad day.

Out of the market since June first. We both missed little with the down and up since then. I'm waiting for a decent dip, then it's all back into oil and NG service sector.

[Plantagenet]

Absolutley. I've been out for 6 months. Whenever you hear the phrase "record high," the smart money has already placed their sell orders. They never show the e-trade baby on a bad day.

Out of the market since June first. We both missed little with the down and up since then. I'm waiting for a decent dip, then it's all back into oil and NG service sector.

Ditto here.

I got 2/3 out last May. Left 1/3 in just in case there was a black swan event like a crisis in the ME and oil prices started to run up.

[SilentRunning]

that we're at the latest peak of the undulating plateau, where the stock market prices and oil prices are at their highest - and are about to nose dive again as the economy once again tanks?

I am seriously thinking of taking most of my money OUT of the stock markets, and moving to a "cash" position. I've recovered nicely from 2008 - and I see us going back down into serious recession from the current quasi-recession mode.

You seem to understand the situation since you mention in your post undulating plateau. That's why I think it's pretty crazy that despite your knowledge of peak oil and its consequences, you still have some money on stock markets... I personnaly didn't invest a cent in stock market since I've heard about peak oil. Anyway, as a french, stock markets have never been popular over there.
It's great that you recovered from 2008 with your stocks. But actually, your money was saved with sovereign debt, meaning that the economic system is running out of ammos. Nowadays, countries can't increase debt much more. They have two choices :
- Printing money : meaning hyperinflation. In this case, stock markets could go up while their real value get down.
- Austerity : meaning depression. In this case everything go down, but money, at least until the final crash, will worth more and more.
In those two cases, money going exponential with hyperinflation or going 0 with depression, average Joe will become poor Joe. Or starving Joe.

Invest in hard assets (gold, canned food, utilities...). Arable soil if you are really rich.

I'm not really rich, but I already do have 30 acres (12 hectares) of land with an option on 30 acres more. I have no mortgage. I have some gold, some guns, a considerable cache of food. We're putting in an apple orchard. I have a well stocked tool shed. We have bedded gardens.

I am of the "slow crash" mindset, and think that the system as it currently stands will slog along for a few years more. I took something of a hit in 2008 with my investments, but thanks to my PO knowledge, my portfolio has completely recovered and I am considerably ahead.

At the same time, I think that the stock markets are increasingly becoming a zero sum game - and I am starting to liquidate my positions.

[Mesuge]

Silent> ~25hectares per relatively compact family using some perma- tricks could be doable, but certainly wouldn't be enough in modern fossil agriculture setup, which ends anyway, just saying for rough estimation/comparison.