[js1022]

Today I was reading a book called Switch by the Heath Brothers. It started talking about drilling for oil and I remembered 9 years ago when I used to think the sky was falling. I used to visit this site every day and read all the doom threads in a haze of depression. I sat around wondering how I was going to stock up on food and supplies.

Now it's 9 years later and the world has not changed much. Sure, the prices went up. It is fine to analyze if it's a hobby for you I am just warning the newbies don't get scared.

The big oil companies will deplete oil and then unveil the newest energy technology they have been hiding for years. Have some faith and don't let PeakOil theory make you think the sky is going to fall and you have to stock up on food.

[ColossalContrarian]

Now it's 9 years later and the world has not changed much.

Maybe you're 9 years old?

[anador]

Oh on the contrary,

I think he was born yesterday.

Shame you couldn't remember your original login.

[BasilBoy]

I don't know about the rest of you, but the sky sure seems lower today than it was 9 years ago.

[meemoe_uk]

Hi js,
Looks like you've become skeptical of the PeakOIlIsNow! religion. Did you read JD's blog ?
Epic.

As you can see, those still in the grips of the myth are immune to suggestions from those who've witnessed many a hyped end day come and go. That's the fun of living in the 'Now'. All of history can be burnt. Just let yourself spin to the tune of every day's absurd tabloid headline, ignoring that yesterday's apocalypse didn't happen.

According to peakers and running outers, peak should have happened 200 years ago, when the 1st conventions for oil extraction ( walking over to the local surface oil seep with a bucket ) were becoming inadequate.
To keep peakoil as a 'now' cult, it's up to those who control this religion to say which way of extracting oil is the 'correct' one, drawing a line in the sand which says yesterday's oil was the last 'correctly' extracted, and that new oil extractions are 'unconventional' and so don't count.
This is how the PeakOilisNow! religion keeps alive day to day, year to year, century to centuries and immune to reason in a world with still hundreds of years of cheap 'unconventional' reservoirs of oil.

So it doesn't matter if you're a voice from yesterday, a decade ago or a century ago, pointing out the fails of the peakoilisNow, and it's 'boy cried wolf' 100 year history, you will fail to impress the PO subjugates, because they know that today it is soooooooo different and soooooo special. Just like those of a hundred years ago knew peak oil was a hundred years ago, and those 100 years from now will know peak oil is in their time.

The POisNow religion is timeless.

[Cog]

So js came back after all this time has passed to tell us all not to worry so much.

What a pal.

[MD]

Hi js,
Looks like you've become skeptical of the PeakOIlIsNow! religion. Did you read JD's blog ?
Epic.

As you can see, those still in the grips of the myth are immune to suggestions from those who've witnessed many a hyped end day come and go. That's the fun of living in the 'Now'. All of history can be burnt. Just let yourself spin to the tune of every day's absurd tabloid headline, ignoring that yesterday's apocalypse didn't happen.

According to peakers and running outers, peak should have happened 200 years ago, when the 1st conventions for oil extraction ( walking over to the local surface oil seep with a bucket ) were becoming inadequate.
To keep peakoil as a 'now' cult, it's up to those who control this religion to say which way of extracting oil is the 'correct' one, drawing a line in the sand which says yesterday's oil was the last 'correctly' extracted, and that new oil extractions are 'unconventional' and so don't count.
This is how the PeakOilisNow! religion keeps alive day to day, year to year, century to centuries and immune to reason in a world with still hundreds of years of cheap 'unconventional' reservoirs of oil.

So it doesn't matter if you're a voice from yesterday, a decade ago or a century ago, pointing out the fails of the peakoilisNow, and it's 'boy cried wolf' 100 year history, you will fail to impress the PO subjugates, because they know that today it is soooooooo different and soooooo special. Just like those of a hundred years ago knew peak oil was a hundred years ago, and those 100 years from now will know peak oil is in their time.

The POisNow religion is timeless.

Grossly overstated position. Makes whatever you say unbelievable and irrelevant

[SeaGypsy]

Have you got a graphic for that rationale Memo?

[vision-master]

Today I was reading a book called Switch by the Heath Brothers. It started talking about drilling for oil and I remembered 9 years ago when I used to think the sky was falling. I used to visit this site every day and read all the doom threads in a haze of depression. I sat around wondering how I was going to stock up on food and supplies.

Now it's 9 years later and the world has not changed much. Sure, the prices went up. It is fine to analyze if it's a hobby for you I am just warning the newbies don't get scared.

The big oil companies will deplete oil and then unveil the newest energy technology they have been hiding for years. Have some faith and don't let PeakOil theory make you think the sky is going to fall and you have to stock up on food.

LENR is in the works right now....... Don't diss the doomers wet dream..........

[BasilBoy]

So it doesn't matter if you're a voice from yesterday, a decade ago or a century ago, pointing out the fails of the peakoilisNow, and it's 'boy cried wolf' 100 year history, you will fail to impress the PO subjugates, because they know that today it is soooooooo different and soooooo special. Just like those of a hundred years ago knew peak oil was a hundred years ago, and those 100 years from now will know peak oil is in their time.The POisNow religion is timeless.

May I ask who was saying peak oil is now, a hundred years ago? I know Hubbert published a paper in 1956, saying U.S. oil would peak between 1965-1970 (depending on initial reserve assumptions)...and he was right. If I recall correctly, he didn't get much respect at the time of publication, just as you are not giving respect to those of today that have analyzed the data.

If you remember the fable correctly, the wolf eventually came...

[babystrangeloop]

Now it's 9 years later and the world has not changed much. Sure, the prices went up. ...

Main For Want Of A Nail Discussion Archive
TV Tropes (Archive) / scraped March 2, 2012

At the beginning of the story, before they send the machine back in time, the PR man and the observers are all ordinary ape-descended life-forms. Then they send the machine back in time, the PR man gives his speech about how safe it is, the time machine comes back — and the PR blob draws himself up onto his pseudopods and says, "There, you see? Nothing has changed!"

If only I could remember the name of that story. I just remember fragments of the text. All google can give me now is that broken fragment.

But my point is that it's pure boiling frog material to say "nothing much has changed."

[Daniel_Plainview]

I used to visit this site every day and read all the doom threads in a haze of depression. I sat around wondering how I was going to stock up on food and supplies.

What a coincidence. Back in 2003-04 I would visit Cornucopian sites every day and read all the Corny threads in a haze of optimism.

Back then, I believed that oil was infinite, and that the price of oil would never exceed $20 or $30/bbl.

... I believed that growth was infinite, and that there would never be bubbles or crashes in asset prices.

... I believed that free-market capitalism would prevail, and that there would never be a need for suffocating central bank intervention and trillion dollar bailouts.

... I believed that sovereigns could accumulate unlimited debt without any consequences.

Now it's 9 years later and the world has not changed much.

Now it's 9 years later and most global economies are a complete basket-case. Sovereigns have racked-up massive debts in order to bailout their bankrupt financial institutions. Brent crude is $125/bbl. Central banks now control their zombie economies which have been placed on perma-life-support amid ZIRP, QE, and bailouts. The PIIGS are bankrupt and require bailouts. Unemployment in the Eurozone is now 10.7%. The youth face a future of 20% unemployment, skyrocketing student loan debt, and massive sovereign debts exceeding $40,000 per household.

[babystrangeloop]

Now it's 9 years later and most global economies are a complete basket-case. Sovereigns have racked-up massive debts in order to bailout their bankrupt financial institutions...

The Trajectory of Empires
John Michael Greer (blog) / February 29, 2012

The first is the core concept of catabolic collapse just mentioned—the mismatch between maintenance costs and available resources, and the distinction between renewable and nonrenewable resources that determines the outcome of the mismatch. The second is the definition of empire introduced two weeks ago—that an empire is a wealth pump, an arrangement backed by military force that extracts wealth from a periphery of subject nations and concentrates it in the imperial core.

Crushed from both sides now. Non-renewable resources running dry and dwindling lesser nations to prey on.

[Sixstrings]

According to peakers and running outers, peak should have happened 200 years ago, when the 1st conventions for oil extraction ( walking over to the local surface oil seep with a bucket ) were becoming inadequate.

I have an old local Newpaper from the 1920s, bought it at a garage sale just because I like old things. Mint condition, quite a step back in time reading the articles and ads.

Anyhow..

There's this article headlined "Oil Men Worry the Oil Will Run Out." And there was another article about making gasoline from coal. I'd have to dig it out of my clutter box to be exact, but the gist of the oil one is that *this was before Saudi Arabian production*, and more to the point, *it was before oil tankers* so it never occurred to them that oil could be imported large scale.

I never posted that article on this forum, for one I'd have to type it all, but.. it would give you cornies a laugh. You do have a point, historically worrying about "the oil running out" isn't new.

However..

The oil actually is running out. Obama just gave a speech basically telling us we're drilling all we can, oil is sold on a world market, there's only so much of it ya know and China / India will want more and more. Sounds like peak oil to me.

Who knows.. maybe the algae thing or whatever will work out, maybe the peak oil story is more about Europe and America leveling out with Asian standards of living, or maybe things will spin out of control into hyperinflation and 2nd / 3rd world food riots.

At the end of the day, what you cannot deny is that we only have one planet and it can't support everyone living like Americans.

[AdTheNad]

There's this article headlined "Oil Men Worry the Oil Will Run Out." And there was another article about making gasoline from coal. I'd have to dig it out of my clutter box to be exact, but the gist of the oil one is that *this was before Saudi Arabian production*, and more to the point, *it was before oil tankers* so it never occurred to them that oil could be imported large scale.

And if those worries were taken into account while building up America to be completely and utterly dependant upon the finite resource, the distance to fall wouldn't be so great.

[babystrangeloop]

I have an old local Newpaper from the 1920s, bought it at a garage sale just because I like old things.

It's a shame all I have is http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/

[meemoe_uk]

>May I ask who was saying peak oil is now, a hundred years ago?
Doomers transistioned from running outers to peakers when Hubbert's paper became popular. It was necessary to hold up Hubbert's paper to the lime light because the oil industry in the US was booming and had vanquished the short and middle term prospect of 'running out' of oil. It was a way of keeping the scaremongery going while there was no immediate threat.
So strictly there were no 'peakers' 100 years ago. But there was plenty of hype in the papers about running out, and people believed it.

> I know Hubbert published a paper in 1956, saying U.S. oil would peak between 1965-1970 (depending on initial reserve assumptions)...and he was right.
It was obvious to anyone in the 1950s oil industry that the US was going to experience a peak. Not because of a geological limit, but because a far more bountiful oil source had been secured by the american oil majors abroad ( middle east ). The industry choose to abandon US oil. So it wasn't any great foresight on Hubbert's part.

> If I recall correctly, he didn't get much respect at the time of publication, just as you are not giving respect to those of today that have analyzed the data.
I've gave them my full respect and attention from 2006 to 2008, only to find that PO_is_Now is a timeless myth based on a few subtle and compelling obfuscations of the truth.

If you remember the fable correctly, the wolf eventually came...
Yes, but it was no good listening to the boy. It's no good listening to the peak oil hype crowd for signs of imminent peak oil. You have to look elsewhere.


>At the end of the day, what you cannot deny is that we only have one planet and it can't support everyone living like Americans.
Nuclear power is potentially 10,000 to 100,000 greater than chemical power. Fission and Fusion could potentially keep human civilization going till long after the sun has stopped burning. Today we have the tech and nuclear fuels to potentially keep everyone prosperous for a few thousand years. So for our practical purposes, energy is not a problem.
It's TPTB that choose to keep civilization on a strict energy diet.

[babystrangeloop]

Fusion could potentially keep human civilization going till long after the sun has stopped burning.

Put a "potential" in your tank.

[BasilBoy]

meemoe...your logic is very hard to follow. I don't understand your analysis:

Doomers transistioned from running outers to peakers when Hubbert's paper became popular. It was necessary to hold up Hubbert's paper to the lime light because the oil industry in the US was booming and had vanquished the short and middle term prospect of 'running out' of oil. It was a way of keeping the scaremongery going while there was no immediate threat.
So strictly there were no 'peakers' 100 years ago. But there was plenty of hype in the papers about running out, and people believed it.

It was obvious to anyone in the 1950s oil industry that the US was going to experience a peak. Not because of a geological limit, but because a far more bountiful oil source had been secured by the american oil majors abroad ( middle east ). The industry choose to abandon US oil. So it wasn't any great foresight on Hubbert's part.

So, it was obvious to the oil industry that U.S. oil would peak and Hubbert's data showed when it would happen, yet it was scaremongering and hype to present this truth to the public?

I've gave them my full respect and attention from 2006 to 2008, only to find that PO_is_Now is a timeless myth based on a few subtle and compelling obfuscations of the truth.

So, again...it was obvious and Hubbert published a paper that was spot on, yet it's still a timeless myth? The only thing we don't know is the exact time global peak oil will happen, but we have various estimates that are all relatively close to one another. So, the question is not whether or not global peak oil will happen, it's a question of when it will happen...and everyone is in agreement that it will happen sooner rather than later. How is it a timeless myth?

The real myth is to ignore facts to preserve one's own delusional world view. Religion has played this role for centuries and now we have political ideologies and corporate propaganda to add to the mix...

[Loki]

Was this site even around in 2003?

As for the troll, you may not have noticed, but we saw a massive spike in the price of oil in 2008, on the heels of which came the worst depression since the 1930s.

But no worries, all this peak oil crap is nonsense right?