[bochen280]

Israel and the US wants to attack Iran before Iran develops the ability to defend itself with nuclear weapons. In a post-peak-oil world that much oil is just too tempting for an oil hungry nation such as US... and Iran knows that even if it plays "nice" it will eventually be swallowed by the wolf and cannibalization and sacrificed... the only defense is to develop nuclear weapons to protect its oil and the Iranian way of life.

The US knows that as well.... and it knows that if Iran were to develop a nuke first it will effectively put Iranian oil off the map and out of US reach/grab... so this is why Iran is on the axis of evil list... the West needs that oil and can't afford to have Iran defend itself... once Iran gets a nuke it will be un-pragmatical to steal /rob the oil....

So it is a race against time to see who blinks first.

Surely Russia and China have a lot of stake in how all this turns out too....

Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, UAE, Kuwait, etc all belong to the US. Iran is the only major player in the Middle East left that isn't sided with the West...

If Iran is attacked by the US and there is regime change, and China and Russia allows this to happen, then Both China and Russia will have left the US wins the game and basically commits economic suicide.

So push comes to shove... why doesn't Russia/China just GIVE Iran some nuclear weapons to deter US /Israeli aggression?


If US is prepared to attack Iran, why is Russia/China not prepared to give Iran nuclear options?

[Cloud9]

Persians with a bomb would make them more autonomous. This would serve neither Russia nor the China.

[AgentR11]

There's a more dire explanation.

Iran doesn't intend to use nuclear weapons as a defensive deterent.
They intend to use them. In battle.

Neither Russia nor China want them to do that, but, as the target of Iran's wrath is to the West, and not particularly relevant to the Russian or Chinese economies, they don't really care all that much either. Kinda like I'd like my kid not to get her shoes muddy, but I'm not likely to expend much effort to prevent those shoes from getting muddy.

This is also the view of Israel. Israel believes, honestly, that as soon as Iran has a weapon and is able to deliver it, they will do so. This changes the nature of the relationship from "deterence" to one where the only rational response is to attack first and hope they are crippled enough to be unable to respond. This holds for both parties. My bet, is that Iran will test its first nuke over Tel Aviv. The role of luck will come in concerning the nuke's detonation, as well as any potential Israeli intercept.

[careinke]

There's a more dire explanation.

Iran doesn't intend to use nuclear weapons as a defensive deterent.
They intend to use them. In battle.

Neither Russia nor China want them to do that, but, as the target of Iran's wrath is to the West, and not particularly relevant to the Russian or Chinese economies, they don't really care all that much either. Kinda like I'd like my kid not to get her shoes muddy, but I'm not likely to expend much effort to prevent those shoes from getting muddy.

This is also the view of Israel. Israel believes, honestly, that as soon as Iran has a weapon and is able to deliver it, they will do so. This changes the nature of the relationship from "deterence" to one where the only rational response is to attack first and hope they are crippled enough to be unable to respond. This holds for both parties. My bet, is that Iran will test its first nuke over Tel Aviv. The role of luck will come in concerning the nuke's detonation, as well as any potential Israeli intercept.

Good points. The interesting thing is Israel truly believes Iran will use its nuke as soon as they get one, AND, Iran truly believes they need to acquire a nuke for self defense. If both those points are true, then war is inevitable.

[Revi]

Then there's also the fact that Iran wants to sell oil to the Indians for gold. That could wreck the whole petrodollar system and turn fiat money into worthless paper. We can't let that happen.

[bochen280]

Then there's also the fact that Iran wants to sell oil to the Indians for gold. That could wreck the whole petrodollar system and turn fiat money into worthless paper. We can't let that happen.

The question is, why is Russia/China not supporting Iran? Why does Russia not get this anticipation over with and just deliver some ICBM to Iran?

[radon]

The question is, why is Russia/China not supporting Iran? Why does Russia not get this anticipation over with and just deliver some ICBM to Iran?

Many reasons, it is not even considered probably. Russia (Soviet Union) has never ever sold to/shared with anyone its nuclear weapons. Too far-reaching step to take. Think - what does Russia have to gain from it and what it has to lose? And it is not at all certain that Iranians are enthusiastic about taking such "help".

But just consider this: suppose Russia delivers ICBMs to Iran (huge international scandal already, with no benefit for Russia). Obviously, Russian military staff will have to manage these weapons - certainly, this will not be delegated to Iranians or anyone else, too sensitive a weapon. Now suppose that Iran does something stupid, attacks some boat in the gulf - how should the Russians react? Suppose that the US, Israel, or some unidentified terrorists do something stupid - how should the Russians react? These ICBMs will, in fact, be virtually useless and even dangerous, as their use will immediately draw Russia into any stupid conflict and make Russia susceptible to any provocation. Suppose that the relations between Iran and Russia suddenly sour and Iran decides to "detain" these weapons - how should Russia react?

Russia has more or less constructive relations with Iran, the US, Israel, China, most of Arab world, - what Russia has to gain from taking sides so expressively in this non-Russian conflict? Do not think that anyone else, including Iran, has much to gain from it.

[DomusAlbion]

Iran is controlled by a radical religious group that believes in the Al-Mahdi, the twelfth (hidden) Imam, who will reveal himself only at the "End Times". The Shia Mullahs and many in the Iranian government, such as the president, Ahmadinejad, will do all it takes to precipitate the crisis that will bring the return of the Mahdi and their glorious triumph over the Great and Lesser Satans and all those damned Sunni Muslims for that matter.

If any European power had read Hitler’s Mein Kampt and believed that he meant what he wrote they could have prevented WWII by killing the pig before he gained power.

[AgentR11]

Why does Russia not get this anticipation over with and just deliver some ICBM to Iran?

Iran doesn't need an ICBM; they already have satellite launch capabilities. Same tech really.

If they can put a satellite in orbit, they can put a nuke over Tel Aviv.

[bochen280]

Why does Russia not get this anticipation over with and just deliver some ICBM to Iran?

Iran doesn't need an ICBM; they already have satellite launch capabilities. Same tech really.

If they can put a satellite in orbit, they can put a nuke over Tel Aviv.

I think it is more about energy and less about religion/ideological. Iran has nothing to gain and everything to lose by attacking Israel preemptively. This is the same old "WMD" excuse used to attack Iraq and bring down Saddam. Remember Collin Powell and his "aluminium tubes" power-point presentation to the UN? Or what about Dick Cheney's "there is no doubt" speech? Really?

I do think Iran is trying to acquire nukes, but to think they do so with offensive purpose is just warmongering... the "war on terra" and "war on tyranny" being excuses to control the oil and its distribution points... look how it has played out in Afghan, Iraq, and now the Arab Spring victims like Tunisia, Libra, and soon to be Syria.

Basically resources are running out and the West needs convenient excuses to attack. So they resort to propaganda like "WMD", "crimes against humanity", "war on terra", "dictatorship", "liberating", etc....

Iran is no threat to no-one. It is pure fearmongering to think otherwise.

I wonder how much China/Russia are willing to give in and how many more times they are going to stand by and watch the West take over the world resources (always ostensibly under the guise and pretext of fighting terror, spreading democrazy, liberating repressed people from their dictator regimes, stopping WMD's, etc) before making a stand and drawing a red line.... it reminds me of the frog boiling metaphor... probably they will wait until it is too late... Russia backed down once during the missile crisis and lost its cool at the moment of truth, hopefully they don't repeat that mistake again.

[Plantagenet]

Iran has nothing to gain and everything to lose by attacking Israel preemptively.

Yes, but Iran isn't governed by logical people----Iran is governed by religious fantatics who believe their 13th imam (the Mahdi) has been magically hiding down a well for 13 centuries.

Even worse, the whole purpose of the Shia Mahdi fanatics is to wipe out other religions. Umm Salama said: "His [the Mahdi's] aim is to establish a moral system from which all superstitious faiths have been eliminated."

Ahmadinejad and various Iranian Mullahs have repeatedly said their intention is to wipe out Israel. Shia Islam also has stringent rules against lying------The most prudent course would be to take the Iranian leaders at their word.

[bochen280]

I don't think the power elite or TPTB anywhere in the world (where it be Israel, China, Russia, US, Iran) beLIEve in religion. Religion is another one of those propagation tools used to control the masses back in the domestic homeland and to wage wars abroad... (like of like "terra-ism" for that matter!) Anyone who knows anything about anything knows there is no God. No leadership of any modern nation or regime truly believes in religious doctrine. It is all about the energy, resources, EROEI, peak oil, zero-sum games, asymmetrical warfare, etc... Religion has no place in any of this. It is only used as a pretext for control, both internal and external.

[Plantagenet]

I don't think the power elite or TPTB anywhere in the world (where it be Israel, China, Russia, US, Iran) beLIEve in religion.

You are welcome to your opinion. The Mullahs in Iran say otherwise.

No leadership of any modern nation or regime truly believes in religious doctrine.

Iran is not a modern nation. It is ruled by medieval theocracy.


While they do have elections, the candidates are pre-selected by the Mullahs specificically to weed out people who are not islamists (i.e. Islamic fundamentalists).

[Fishman]

Etheris, you make an assumption that others think logical or similar to you. I see little basis for this assumption. If anything, you presume the Iranians to be rational while others are not, again, no evidence for that assumption. Go read the Koran, study a little history of shia fighting sunni for about 1400 years, then get back to us

[radon]

Iran is no threat to no-one. It is pure fearmongering to think otherwise.

Possibly; more likely, Iran is no more/no less threat to anyone than any other country to any other country. However, some reports have been saying that senior people at Iran declare that another state (Israel) needs to be eliminated. If these reports are a misinterpretation of their actual words, the Iranians should clarify what their position is. At the moment this position does look threatening, by a dictionary's definition of the world "threat".

I wonder how much China/Russia are willing to give in and how many more times they are going to stand by and watch the West take over the world resources (always ostensibly under the guise and pretext of fighting terror, spreading democrazy, liberating repressed people from their dictator regimes, stopping WMD's, etc) before making a stand and drawing a red line.... it reminds me of the frog boiling metaphor... probably they will wait until it is too late... Russia backed down once during the missile crisis and lost its cool at the moment of truth, hopefully they don't repeat that mistake again.

Russia has no interest of drawing red lines, engaging in conflicts etc. Nowadays, it does so only when it is forced to. Russia's main interest is peace and stability. Not because of the extreme beauty of the Russian soul or sense of some messianic purpose, but for a very basic, down-to-earth, easy to understand reason - Russia is a very rich country (so is Iran, potentially). As any rich person, Russia wants to quietly enjoy peaceful surroundings. While acquisition of new resources would be welcome, it is not a priority for Russia - retainment and effective utilisation of the existing resource base is. Because this is already a lot.

It is true that after the Kosovo style campaigns in Lybia and Syria, the western countries involved appear to be difficult to negotiate with, and simply dangerous. But the focus will most likely be on negotiations. Iran's conflict will bring little good to the region, and Russia will be supportive to Iran in seeking a peaceful solution. But at the moment - yet - Russia is not the main risk taker at that conflict. The West and, of course, Iran are.

China should be more concerned regarding resources, but who knows what their position is.

Judging from the posts in this thread, the western public opinion is pretty much convinced that the Iranian top officials are a group of irrational fanatics ready to take the world down. While Iran has not attacked anyone for ages, and NATO has been in perpetual conflict here and there all the time, it would still be helpful to understand to which extent this is true. Why isn't Iran taking more vigorous steps to project their image of "a responsible member of international community"? Is this because they may think that this is useless as they have seen Gaddafi's fate already.

[Tanada]

Then there's also the fact that Iran wants to sell oil to the Indians for gold. That could wreck the whole petrodollar system and turn fiat money into worthless paper. We can't let that happen.

The question is, why is Russia/China not supporting Iran? Why does Russia not get this anticipation over with and just deliver some ICBM to Iran?

Do a web search on [Cuban Missile Crisis] and see what happened in the past before you guess what will happen in the future.

[radon]

Do a web search on [Cuban Missile Crisis] and see what happened in the past before you guess what will happen in the future.

That's true, among other, in the following aspect - you do not have to station ICBM's on Iran's soil in order to get Iran under Russia's nuclear umbrella. A NATO-style agreement on mutual defense would suffice. But that would expose Russia to all sorts of risks discussed above.

Iran has been knocking into SCO's doors for years, but has not gone further than an observer status yet. Things may change.

[careinke]

Having lived in Saudi Arabia for over nine years, I can tell you the government not only believes in religion, their religion is their government.

[Shaved Monkey]

There's only been one country in the world who has used not one but two atomic bomb on civilians and their the ones making the rules for Iran but ignoring them for Israel.

Iran has oil Iran has gas .
If they had nuclear energy they would need less of their oil and gas to make power.
!. They would have more to sell and as its all state owned the money goes to Iran making them more powerful and able to dictate flow rates and prices.
2. They dont want to sell in $US this means the US cant print as much US dollars as they would like.
3. Its easier to control a country when you have a dictator who needs your protection and they have a World Bank loan to gobble up their revenue.

As for religious nut jobs running countries there are plenty that fit that bill most are the US allies and you could probably put the US in that category too.(US foreign policy is massively influenced by the Christo/Zionist lobby)

The reason Iran is a threat is they don't like Zionism and they own their own oil
Just like Iraq, Libya and Syria.

If you saw the youtube of the gold and silver investor his prediction was the pyramid would collapse when supply out stripped demand and one country decided to hold onto their reserve for personal use,further destroying the supply chain.
He predicted it might be Norway,but the US/West is guaranteeing it gets rid of the people it cant control who have oil and taking control of supply and try and maintain BAU.

I imagine Venezuela will be next.
They fit the bill own their oil and they don't like Zionism.