[Sixstrings]

Department of Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said that "no one knows" if gasoline prices in the United States will reach $9 per gallon, and acknowledged that the possibility is outside his control.

"I don't think anyone can speculate what will happen with respect to oil prices and gas prices because they are set on the global economy," Salazar told reporters when asked if gas prices could reach $9 per gallon, as they have been in Greece. "Where it will all end, no one knows.

He explained that "what we see happening today are the influences first of unrest in places like the Middle East and Iran, which disrupt the markets and allow the futures markets to play on some of what they see [in] the unrest around the world; and secondly the huge demand that you've started seeing in places like China, India and Brazil."

Salazar touted President Obama's "all of the above" energy policy and the prospect of renewable energy, but warned that "we do not control the price of oil."
http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/salazar-no-one-knows-if-us-headed-9gal-gas/499451

It's interesting, they say everything BUT peak oil. They dance around it.. citing "rising world demand" -- well logically the inverse of that is falling supply, or at least supply that can't keep up with the rising demand (because it PEAKED).

I heard an oil exec giving testimony on CSPAN.. he at least said the words "finite supply."

So..

$9 a gallon gas. Yikes. The US will have to completely change the entire vehicle fleet, all the tractor trailers too. This is ongoing right now but can we we switch over to Volts and Prisus's and subcompacts fast enough without a major economic disruption and fuel riots?

[SeaGypsy]

$9 bucks! Big deal! Plenty of places have been paying that already. Hasn't triggered any revolutions yet that I have heard of. Yes it will happen for sure it's just a matter of when. Yes it will make a mess of middle America. Crying won't change a thing.

[Tanada]

Long haul trucking will be a thing of the past and we will go back to rail for long haul and trucks for short haul from intermodal yards to final destinations. That is if we sustain ourselves for very long at those prices, which is open to question. America and to a lesser extent Europe are based on consumer culture and economics, remove the consumers and everything else falls apart.

[dsula]

Long haul trucking will be a thing of the past.

Europe, with high gas prices has trucks running everywhere. From Spain to Germany. From Germany to Italy, from Czech to France. Crazy! Visit the Brenner summit in Austria, 1 of 3 north - south links. Trucks, trucks and more trucks.

High gas prices will not stop trucking. But we will move to those oversized heavy trucks or road trains.

[SeaGypsy]

My guess (as current reigning oil price forecaster 2 years running) is it will get there by 2020 all going well and that America will cope and very well. As long as it's a fairly steady rise (which perhaps 2012 is to go down as the beginning of/ after the post peak turmoil 06/ 08) {much to my chagrin and Cog and Kubs' favour}; this could be by far the best thing to ever happen to the USA. In the longer run. (Read as you will)

[SeaGypsy]

Long haul trucking will be a thing of the past.

Europe, with high gas prices has trucks running everywhere. From Spain to Germany. From Germany to Italy, from Czech to France. Crazy! Visit the Brenner summit in Austria, 1 of 3 north - south links. Trucks, trucks and more trucks.

High gas prices will not stop trucking. But we will move to those oversized heavy trucks or road trains.

To be fair, Europe hardly has the need for 'Long Haul' trucking by comparison to the real continents. Shipping is much more efficient and can with rail multiply efficiency enormously. Humans can, believe it or not, carry 3 times their weight 10 miles a day in a wheelbarrow. We may be a little more creative than that, also.

[dsula]

Long haul trucking will be a thing of the past.

Europe, with high gas prices has trucks running everywhere. From Spain to Germany. From Germany to Italy, from Czech to France. Crazy! Visit the Brenner summit in Austria, 1 of 3 north - south links. Trucks, trucks and more trucks.

High gas prices will not stop trucking. But we will move to those oversized heavy trucks or road trains.

To be fair, Europe hardly has the need for 'Long Haul' trucking by comparison to the real continents..

Europe, like anybody else, takes the cheapest option available. And that is most often truck, not train, especially if you take the first and last few miles into consideration.
You get as 'long-haul' as the continent is large. For some strange reason people on one end of the empire always want stuff from the other end. Oranges from Spain to Hamburg. Mercedes cars from Germany to Napoli. Chocolate from Belgium to Portugal, etc. Not much different than Oranges from Florida to Vermont.

[Timo]

The global effect of $9 gal/gas (for US consumers) realistically depends on the speed at which we reach that level. Even at $4 gal., our transit system is gaining riders, people are biking more, even walking (me). Given enough time, it is human nature to adapt and transition to a new way of doing things. However, nationwide, our rail system SUCKS, and there is no way that it can handle the increase in ridership at even $5 gal/gas. The west bound trains from my city leave at 2:45 a.m., and the east bound at 3:30 a.m.. That's all we've got. Commuters to the big metropolis an hour east of here, SOL. And i mentioned bikes......well, it is spring. Once temps hit the 90s for the morning commute, people won't be so willing to show up to work in a sweaty shirt, and 99% of all employers don't have changing and shower facilities to let their employees get cleaned up after such a hot ride. Cut to the chase, given enough time, yes we can adapt. We will have no choice. But, depending on the speed of that transition, there very well might be some folks who are woefully unprepared, and many of those folk might rebel in unpleasant ways. There's also the regional aspect to consider. Reactions here in the midwest won't necessarily be the same as out on the east or west coasts. Or in Greece, for that matter.

[Pops]

We will see $9/gal eventually, just not at this level of consumption, we consumed about the same as '01 last year I think.

I read a recent poll that said $4 is the level Americans start making changes. That is about $100-120/bbl so about right with what everyone has forecast since I started reading about PO.

Long term – since the US peak, demand has risen faster than capacity regardless of price. The bit about Iran/China/etc is all smoke, the writing has been on the wall for years.

[seahorse3]

I don't see the US making a transition to mass commuter society, like buses and trains. Those are funded by the government, and local gov'ts are going broke. I've read where several bigger cities are actually cutting back on bus service, not increasing it, all at a time when there is more need, not less.

[pfreyre]

Ten years ago in 2002, gas sold for about $1.50/gallon in the US. Gas is currently about $3.70 in my neck of the woods, what will it be in 10 years?

Just for kicks & giggles, lets look at price change from 2002 to 2012. The percentage change from $1.50 to $3.70 is an astounding 147% increase in the price of gas! If $3.70 in 2012 increases by 147%, then gas will cost $9.16/gallon in 2022! Even if $3.70 only increases by a factor of $2.20 (the difference between $1.50 and $3.70, even then gas will still cost $5.90 in 2022 (notwithstanding any sort of Quantitative Easing from the Fed). The American landscape cannot function as designed on $5.90/gallon gas. Pure and simple.

[Timo]

Good point, pfreyere. The more $$ that is spent on fuel, the less $$ will be available for everything else, like food, shelter, and every other consumer gotta-have-it product out there. Shifts in transportation costs will inherently cause shifts in every other sector of the economy, so even if we collectively manage to keep traveling BAU, we'll be wearing fewer, or more raggedy clothes, eating less food, buying fewer iPods, building much smaller houses (or no new houses, at all). In essence, absolutely everything about how we live will change. Given the American appetite for products made in China, we'll be buying less from them, meaning they'll be facing economic turmoil of their own, and on and on around the planet. On the other hand, rising fuel prices will also inherently speed up renewable energy technologies, thus possibly mitigating some of the downward spiral upheaval. Unfortunately, it's just not possible to feed 9,000,000,000 people with batteries, or wind, or solar, or fusion, or coal, or oil, or ........

I know this subject is taboo, but just for the heck of it, imagine the future, given the current levels of our known finite resources, being used by only 2 billion people. We'll either get their voluntarily, or we'll get their involuntarily, via famine, resource wars, plagues, droughts, floods...... We do have a choice in the matter, but humanity is not too well known for making good choices.

[dsula]

The American landscape cannot function as designed on $5.90/gallon gas. Pure and simple.

Of course it can. $5.9? That's nothing. Stupid people keep on driving big trucks, smart people will drive small cars, motorbikes, walk, carpool etc. Can you imagine, less grid lock, less fuel wasted in jams. Live is gonna be great.

[BobInget]

As gasoline prices rise to the point of pain, the 'real gas', (natural gas) will gradually replace gasoline.
Long haul trucking has already embraced CNG (compressed NG) as diesel replacement. Think about it.
NG infrastructure is ALREADY in place across the nation.

http://205.254.135.7/pub/oil_gas/natura ... index.html

IMO, NG pricing, the Lowest in 20 years, has bottomed. Chemical, cement, agriculture, glass, construction industries have already shown vastly improved profits because of new 'tight gas' technologies. Transportation, the biggest oil consumer, is doing catch-up.
I'm the guy who coined the phrase 'bridge fuel' twelve years ago when gas was considered to have 'peaked' here in America. I really did not see shale centered multi fracked horizontal wells coming.
Clearly, my timing was a decade early. Peak oilers and alternative energy advocates are acting like
AGW deniers. True, in the short term, cheap gas, (NG is gas, gasoline is made from crude oil) will slow some alternative energy projects, (see out of the money PV solar, wind) for 'base load' power projects. In time even NG will begin to peter out. Certainly it will return to its old 6 to 1 ratio with crude. This is the case now. http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

There will be jobs galore as we transition to gas and soon after, locally produced, sustainable energy.

[EnergyUnlimited]

I concur with dsula.
Few obsolete symbols of America will be gone, J6P will no longer drive a Hummer, food will go up in price by half but not much more will change.
Consumers will spend less lavishly and their balance sheets may actually improve.
Thrift will become to be a new buzzword.
Air travel and holiday abroad will suffer much.

I can foresee a real trouble at $20 a gallon though.
At these prices something known as general commuting will suffer, suburban folk will begin to lose ability to go around with daily routine etc.
Air travel will become to be a privilege of top 5%-ers, for others it will no longer be an option or once in life adventure.

[AgentR11]

I can foresee a real trouble at $20 a gallon though.
At these prices something known as general commuting will suffer, suburban folk will begin to lose ability to go around with daily routine etc.

The shape and nature of commuting may change, but rest assured, suburban folks will retain the ability to go around with daily routine. There are simply too many workable adaptive responses to think that people would prefer to stay at home and die, rather than adapt in some way.

I know yall hate me bringing up cycling as an adaptive response; but at (US2012)$20/gal gasoline, it most certainly will be. Probably well below that really. I see a lot more folks this year on their first iteration of figuring out how to use a bicycle for serious transportation; its kinda sad and funny, but I don't try to teach other than as an observable example. Not many solid middle class folks taking the bait, but I have had a few casual inquiries. (interesting aside, what excuses to folks use to throw neighbors off the trail when they suspect you might be a little odd regarding the consumption paradigm?)

Air travel will become to be a privilege of top 5%-ers, for others it will no longer be an option or once in life adventure.

lol. Wonder if they'll have special "debutante groping" classes for the TSA.

Air Travel in general?? good riddance.

[EnergyUnlimited]

I know yall hate me bringing up cycling as an adaptive response; but at (US2012)$20/gal gasoline, it most certainly will be.

What if a workplace is 20-40 miles away?
Most peoples won't make it by bike and those who do are likely to arrive at work tired and not fresh.

[Plantagenet]

What if a workplace is 20-40 miles away?
Most peoples won't make it by bike and those who do are likely to arrive at work tired and not fresh.

Try it on a motorcycle or scooter --- 70-100 mpg and you don't have to break a sweat pumping those pedals.

[Ferretlover]

'No one knows' if when US headed to $9/gal gas.

Fixed that for Mr. Salazar.

[Lore]

Try it on a motorcycle or scooter --- 70-100 mpg and you don't have to break a sweat pumping those pedals.

The bike in the picture, probably more like 45-50 mpg. The girl option, much costlier.

There is a bicycle thread around here somewhere in which we kind of discussed this already. By the time everyone has to ride a bicycle here in the US, there won't be any jobs to go to. There is something just not right about having to ride your bicycle 30 miles away to work at GM.