[dolanbaker]

Do you think we've reached the (start)point of terminal decline?

[dsula]

Not at all. We started a new business in 2009 and we're still growing.

[dolanbaker]

It's good to hear that some people are making a success of things (even in the worst of depressions, some will still succeed), but in the big world of casino economics it appears to be all downhill..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18921663
Spain: Eurozone deal fails to ease concerns
Spain's financial woes have deepened despite eurozone finance ministers approving a deal to lend up to 100bn euros (£78bn) to bolster its banks.

The heavily-indebted Valencia region requested an undisclosed loan from a new rescue fund set up last Friday.

And the yield on Spanish 10-year bonds shot up a quarter percentage point to 7.28%, a rate regarded by analysts as unsustainable in the long run.

[Sys1]

From Olduvai theory, we have indeed reached the edge of the cliff.
Nevertheless, beside a false flag event during London olympic games, I think we have several months (roughly until october) before the economy really gets weird, meaning riots spreading to France with the coming austerity measures and eventually Euro collapse end to mid 2013.
Anyway, I've often been wrong with predictions (at least as long as they involve dates).
So don't get depressed.... Yet!

[dolanbaker]

I try to avoid putting dates on future events, just a general expectation that that things are going to change and force people to do more with less. In general I expect things to change fairly slowly, but with "down steps" within that slow decline, such as a family member losing their job or a hike in tax/cut in benefits.

Growth was decades of small steps, I see no reason not to expect decline to be similar for the majority of the population.

The financial/banking sector is in for some severe shocks in the near future though because their entire operation is dependent on infinite growth! If they handle the reconfiguration badly, then the decline for everyone else will be much worse.

[Pops]

If this is the peak there is only one direction from here.

I truly do believe that modern life is dependent on cheap fossil fuels and notwithstanding all the shouting and hand waving from the deck chairs I see no reason to think we aren't pretty near the high water mark.

But I also think humans like to see the world through the lens of their life, or, to think the world begins and ends with them. We like to think this is the end of history, that the world has reached it's nadir with us right at the lead that nothing will change after this (or the next thing anyway).

So I don't think this is the end or that society doesn't have plenty of tricks up her sleeve or that I'll be surprised many times before it's over for me.

[Pops]

Actually what I started to say had more to do with late-stage capitalism, an economy moving from industry toward "information" (whatever that means) and financialization / speculation and the increasing wealth disparity that unlike in the 30's, the Great Recession only exacerbated rather than deflated.

But hey, it's Friday.

[Satori]

the "long emergency" is well under way

society increasingly will be divided between the haves and the have nots

middle class rapidly disappearing
people like us will become the working poor
a SUBSTANTIAL portion of the population will be chronically unemployed or under employed

long gone are the days where someone could graduate high school and get a job in the manufacturing sector making $20 an hour with good benefits

manufacturers around here paying $8.50 an hour
and there is no lack of applicants for those crappy jobs

[Anvil]

And all of those jobs will quickly disappear off shore to china. I think it not so much of an long emergency as a transitions of power from west to china.

[Cog]

If you don't have a consumer base in North America and Europe who are those Chinese going to sell their products to?

[ralfy]

I can't find the article, but it states that for several economists polled, at best we are looking at a "lost decade" of low growth, unemployment, and high food and oil prices. At worst, it will be a permanent global recession.

[SeaGypsy]

Complexity is still increasing, so, no we aren't there yet.

The 'lost decade' theory is bunkum, based on the other theory that the banking crisis had nothing to do with peak oil, which it very clearly did and still does.

The permanent global recession theory is also bunkum, as economics are, as far as concerns the individual, local. Looked at from statistical perspective, ok, but people don't live in 'The World' they live in towns, cities, regions and countries; each of which has it's own perils and pitfalls, blessings and chances.

[Loki]

the "long emergency" is well under way

society increasingly will be divided between the haves and the have nots

middle class rapidly disappearing
people like us will become the working poor
a SUBSTANTIAL portion of the population will be chronically unemployed or under employed

Bingo! It's the Third Worldization of America, Europe, et al. happening right before our eyes.

[Tanada]

Actually what I started to say had more to do with late-stage capitalism, an economy moving from industry toward "information" (whatever that means) and financialization / speculation and the increasing wealth disparity that unlike in the 30's, the Great Recession only exacerbated rather than deflated.

But hey, it's Friday.

My spouse and I were talking a couple hours ago and I pointed out that back in the 1970's and early 1980's the future was about the next great thing be it hydroplane speed boats or flying cars or bullet trains and now it is about the Ipod/Ipad/ap for this ap for that electronics dependent life. We don't look to the future as a way of doing physical things any more, we look at it as a way to manipulate data some way some how.

In the real physical world manipulating the data gets you nothing but manipulated data, if the people with the physical assets you need like food/shelter/petroleum don't care what your manipulated data says you are up a familiar creek with no paddles in sight.

[SeaGypsy]

Not quite true. Industry has become obsessed with OH&S, efficiency and productivity driven, but definitely better for the workers than the bad old days when data wasn't collected or processed efficiently.

[ralfy]

Complexity is still increasing, so, no we aren't there yet.

The 'lost decade' theory is bunkum, based on the other theory that the banking crisis had nothing to do with peak oil, which it very clearly did and still does.

The permanent global recession theory is also bunkum, as economics are, as far as concerns the individual, local. Looked at from statistical perspective, ok, but people don't live in 'The World' they live in towns, cities, regions and countries; each of which has it's own perils and pitfalls, blessings and chances.

What nonsense. With no "lost decade" and no "permanent global recession," what we have left is recovery, which very much goes against peak oil.

[SeaGypsy]

What projection. It won't be a decade was my point. So far, the first few years of 'permanent global recession' under peak oil, (actually more a bumpy plateau also, so far) has been a mega boom in China, India, and not too bad at all for Brazil and several other southern countries. So call it a 'global recession' if you like, which it may be in overall gross numbers; but not everywhere. Large parts of Australia have yet to see 6%+ unemployment.

[vision-master]

E-Cat Australia Issues First Advertisement

[ralfy]

What projection. It won't be a decade was my point. So far, the first few years of 'permanent global recession' under peak oil, (actually more a bumpy plateau also, so far) has been a mega boom in China, India, and not too bad at all for Brazil and several other southern countries. So call it a 'global recession' if you like, which it may be in overall gross numbers; but not everywhere. Large parts of Australia have yet to see 6%+ unemployment.

Actually, your point was that it won't be a decade-long global recession or a permanent one. What's left then, is a recession that's more than a decade-long or no recession at all. What is your choice?

Mega boom? Perhaps you mean mega-hoard and mega-asset bubbles.

Not too bad for Brazil and "several other southern countries," and thus no global recession? Australia is doing fine, and thus no global recession, either? Looks like a fallacy of hasty generalization to me, if not more economic "growth" based on trillions in bailout money pumped into the system.

Why not look at global food and oil prices, unemployment, global economic growth to determine such? For a wider perspective, how about global ave. ecological footprint per capita vs. biocapacity?

[SeaGypsy]

Actually, your point was that it won't be a decade-long global recession or a permanent one. What's left then, is a recession that's more than a decade-long or no recession at all. What is your choice?

If you lack the intellect or will to read what I said how I said it and prefer to put your own spin on it, that is projection.

Mega boom? Perhaps you mean mega-hoard and mega-asset bubbles.

Which differs from pre peak oil first world? How exactly?

Not too bad for Brazil and "several other southern countries," and thus no global recession? Australia is doing fine, and thus no global recession, either? Looks like a fallacy of hasty generalization to me, if not more economic "growth" based on trillions in bailout money pumped into the system.

Looks to me like you think the USA and Europe and a few of their tagalongs qualify as 'The Global Economy'.

Why not look at global food and oil prices, unemployment, global economic growth to determine such?

Which in many places, most likely for a majority of humanity in terms of numbers, have improved over the last ten years.

For a wider perspective, how about global ave. ecological footprint per capita vs. biocapacity?

Talk about building a strawman.