ennui wrote:There is a mythmaking that surrounded EVs, starting with the EV-1 and Who Killed the Electric Car, which built the whole conspiracy around CHEVRON and NiMh batteries, etc...
It is not myth. The facts presented in that film are well documented. There really were efforts among automakers to sabotage their own products and to keep people ignorant about their capabilities. There really were efforts on part of the oil industry to stall adoption of it, and people within government were really complicit in fighting this threat to the status quo. This doesn't apply to only EVs, but to innovation in the auto industry in general. Read "Taken For a Ride" by Jack Doyle if you are unfamiliar with what I am talking about, and get back to me when we can have a real, fact-oriented conversation.
This mythmaking took a hit when lithium batteries supplanted NiMh, thus sidestepping the patent issue, and then the announcement of the Volt (and later the Leaf).
LiFePO4 batteries came around nearly 10 years later than NiMH, and have flourished largely because their patent is public domain and anyone is free to make their own variant. They are superior to NiMH in terms of specific capacity, but the fact that NiMH for EVs was kept off the market has without a doubt helped set early adoption back an entire decade. Toyota had to cancel the RAV4 EV because of what happened with the NiMH battery, as their supplier Panasonic was no longer able to make them as the result of a lawsuit.
The Volt and Leaf likely wouldn't even exist today if it wasn't for the public outcry and public relations blowback that "Who Killed the Electric Car" and a resurfacing of the facts that it contained entering the public consciousness created against the major automakers. More people started demanding a change in product offerings as a result of this film, and the information contained within it had even managed to influence some politicians with regard to energy policy.
(The Teslas and the like were always a vanity project of little relevance.)
While true, that was not the goal of either Martin Eberhardt or Elon Musk. As soon as they get the capacity to mass produce in the needed volume, they have every intent of bringing a sub $30,000, 150+ mile range EV to market. I have seen dozens of studies going through the number crunching and confirming that it is very possible, some of them from as far back as 1998(Such as "Evaluation of Electric Vehicle Production and Operating Costs" by Cuenca and Gaines). Many hobbyists ahve done it for even cheaper than these studies claim is possible, albeit they are using donor chassis and their own labor, plus non-OEM suitable parts.
We now have other mass-produced EVs on the horizon like the Ford Focus.
You mean an EV that was meant for the higher-end consumer that comes standard with expensive options such as a premium sound system and heated/leather seats, and not to be affordable, right? The base model Focus would have been a much lighter and less expensive basis to start with, were they actually serious about this, and not starting with a platform that has hundreds of pounds and $5,000+ worth of extras added to it before the electric drive is even added. The additional weight also harms range and further compromises consumer acceptance, as range is the main cause of anxiety among prospective EV buyers.
It doesn't help that Ford chose a vehicle designed to be run on gasoline for its platform. An electric drive lends itself to much different design possibilities than an ICE.
But at least it's a start.
What instead was once seen by EV enthusiasts as a holy-grail "this will change the world!" event is fast becoming the more humdrum reality of cars that, when push comes to shove, don't make economic sense, especially in a recession. Hence these cars are not selling that well.
These cars are selling as many as are being made. And only a few thousand at that. It doesn't help that we are in very bad economic times, when the technology was ready while times were prosperous. Now few have the money to even dream of buying a new car.
Where you save most of your money in car ownership is to not be making car payments. I paid off my 2004 Mazda-3 over 3 years ago. That amounts to $300 saved each month, which can pay for a lot of expensive gas.
All true. However, for those buying a new car, an EV at an affordable price would make much more economic sense than a gasoline burner at the same price.
My bicycle makes even more economic sense.
Being 1200 miles away from my conversion for the majority of each year has put a damper on progress, but being on vacation and back home these last 2 weeks, it is now drivable, albeit not yet road legal. My Soliton 1 controller is mounted, and I may finally test drive the car again tomorrow with my own purchased components, and not some custom controller that I borrowed last year to test it with.
A conversion, at least on paper, can make far more economic sense than purchasing any new car on the market. A $12,000 LiFePO4 pack is going to be the majority of my car's cost, and I'll have spent less than $20,000 in total, including restoration and fabrication. Most new cars retail for well above that, and have inferior performance. That, and if it is as efficient as calculated, I will sacrifice nothing with regard to range. 200+ miles will be plenty. Performance will be superior to cars costing twice as much; it has already effortlessly done a nice, smokey burnout.
EVs save money, but like a record-player, every time you recharge, you wear the battery out, something that is rarely factored into the cost-per-mile to drive.
Yes. However, making an EV save money is all about designing it to do so. Throwing components together in a haphazard manner will not be likely to yield results that are cheap to operate. I've seen both extremes among conversions; there are long range trucks with lead acid(such as "Red Beastie" or "Polar Bear") and hundreds of LiFePO4 conversions that break even at well under $2.00/gallon gasoline factoring in battery replacement. There are also plenty of short range AGM conversions that break even well north of $10/gallon gasoline.
So you are not likely to drive the car into the ground like a Volvo on a single battery pack.
The relatively cheap LiFePO4 from CALB and Thundersky actually mean you can drive the car into the ground like a Volvo on one pack. 2,000 cycles to 80% discharge on a vehicle with 125 miles range, with a shelf life of no less than 1 decade(some conversions on the road still use LiFePO4 packs from 2003 while delivering the original range and performance to this day), do the math... and even then the battery isn't really spent, just at 80% of nameplate rating after those 2,000 cycles. Someone willing to settle with reduced range and performance could still keep driving the pack into the ground.
Just make sure you have the right kind of charger and a controller with a battery current limit function first, and know how to set it up, or you will be sorry for your purchase of that pack.
Unless the world devolves into Mad Max nearly overnight, gas prices will not reach levels that will heavily accelerate the payback time.
That's the strange thing about living on planet Earth; entire nations can devolve into Mad Max virtually overnight. There is so much historical precedent for it that I would be pleasantly surprised if no black swan event were to ever surface in my lifetime, or even the next decade.
That being said, hurricane Sandy and the tsunami that his Japan semi-recently have really proven the value of EVs, being that they are not vulnerable to supply disruptions of gasoline.
If you have the money, EVs are a good way to escape the carbon trap as long as your electrons don't come from dirty sources, but for most of us, they simply aren't a solution, and they won't be.
Them not being a solution has more to do with their lack of availability at an affordable price. I'm certain that the auto industry, with all of their hundreds of billions of dollars at their disposal and technology that has advanced by leaps and bounds, could run circles around high school/college kids and hobbyists from 20 years ago, or even their own products from 20 years ago that they refused to sell, yet they aren't.
Why is that?
There really are a dwindling number of EV fanatics because the facts I've presented are now pretty well understood.
Have you seen the online EV communities as of late? The so-called "fanatics" have grown in number by orders of magnitude. Maybe it's because more people are seeing the merit of converting a car to an EV when they can't exactly go out and buy a superior product from the major automakers at a cheaper price. The availability of parts is well ahead of what it was when I first started planning my conversion at the age of 16, and this expanding market-base of EV "fanatics" has a lot to do with it.
It shouldn't be cheaper to engineer old cars into EVs with superior range and performance to the current offerings from industry, yet it is. Something is not right with this picture. Racecar enthusiasts feel the same way; the folks at Mulholland Raceway and other racing collectives constantly whine about the lack of lightweight, simple, overpowered vehicles and how they have to re-engineer old ones to meet their needs. Their market-share goes untapped, as catering to it might cannibalize the sale of more profitable, heavier, more complicated vehicles. It is a travesty that so-called "sports cars" like the Bugatti Veyron or Aston Marton V12 Vanquish weigh in at over 4,000 lbs, when they used much lighter materials than the steel-bodied cars of decades past.
Maybe one day you will understand that the auto industry sells what it wants people to buy, and not what people want to buy. Huge difference. Then when they start losing money, the government bails them out with tax dollars. Rinse and repeat. This pattern has been going on for decades.
It will take much much higher gas prices or something like an EESTOR to significantly change things, and we all know what happened there (nothing).
Not even. Things are starting to change, especially in DIY market.
The constant reaching into the past (Solectria sunrise) and bashing of present-day EVs based on some perceived flaw ("unoptimized Volt", "anti-competitive regulations") is an attempt to keep this myth alive.
The thought process--if only the planets magically aligned, then maybe we'd have our EV nirvana.
Well, the cars of the past ARE superior to today's offerings in terms of range and utility. The Volt really is unoptimized; it wasn't designed to be an affordable car but a luxury vehicle of sorts from the outset, and would have been much cheaper as a pure EV anyhow with the elimination of half of its powertrain and subsequent weight reduction. The technology is much better today. If you can't see what is absurd about this picture, then my point has escaped your grasp.
I'm not trying to keep some myth alive. I'm commenting on the absurdity of what is being offered today versus what is actually possible. As an engineer, this disparity irks me to no end.
Well, we live on the world as it is. Most regulations for autos are there for a very good reason, not to keep small players out of the game.
Honda and Toyota in the past would have heavily disagreed with that, as would NASCAR legends like Smokey Yunick. Small players are largely what drives technology forward, like it or not, and today they are more marginalized than ever. Before there was Volkswagen, Ferdinand Porsche had very humble beginnings. With today's regulatory climate, there are no Ferdinand Porsche's able to get their foot into the market. It's virtually impossible. Alan Cocconi, Dave Cloud, Jack Rickard, Lee Hart, John Wayland, and many, many others are the closest we have to that; their ideas actually work very well and put to shame anything the major industry does.
Considering that the majors ARE producing EVs, there's really no need for small fry like Aptera to attempt to compete. For better or worse, a car has been defined as 4 wheels on the floor and a steel body. That's what the global supply-chain is ramped up to support. That's what the public expects. And that's what an EV's battery pack needs to push around the road, not carbon-fiber or 2 or 3 wheels.
The examples of the past that I cite were real cars with 4 wheels and no carbon anything, and retain superior performance to today's offerings from the majors on inferior battery technology to what exists today.
It is funny that you mention Aptera and a 3-wheel vehicle in this conversation, as they designed it with 3 wheels precisely to avoid the regulations that would otherwise crush them. The market for a 3-wheel vehicle is limited, however, and it is most unfortunate that Aptera is also a victim of malfeasance.
Without competition to the major players, the industry has become mostly stagnant. There's no innovation, no big improvements, just more of the same and small, incremental changes that refuse to affect change in our consumption patterns. This is awfully convenient for those making money off of the whole thing, too...
We may very well see a resurgence of flimsy micro-cars like what Europe had after WWII, but it took a war to produce conditions for that, and it will take a similar scale of crisis to do the same here or elsewhere in the developed world. We haven't seen it yet.
I'm not advocating a resurgence of flimsy microcars. I'm talking about following the design philosophy that Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute has suggested; that philosophy is one of dramatically increasing efficiency without the consumer having to compromise anything. There are countless ways to do that, and if you know what goes into designing a car, you really don't need a whole lot of imagination to figure it out. There are more than a few hobbyists and tinkerers with EVs that are road-legal, safe, fast, uncompromising on comforts or utility and need roughly one-third of the energy per mile as what Ford's Focus EV or Chevrolet's Volt needs. The automakers should feel ashamed.
Once again, we are failing to learn the mistakes of history, and the major players conveniently benefit from this for the time being. We need to improve efficiency before a crisis, otherwise that crisis is going to crush us.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson