[Graeme]

The Baffling Nexus of Climate Change and Health

In 2004, a rare tropical fungus caused a string of respiratory failures and neural disorders along the Pacific Northwest coast, baffling the health community. That same year, Alaskan cruise ship passengers dining on local oysters fell sick with a gastric virus typically found in warm water estuaries. Now Texas, after an unusually wet spring and dry summer, is battling what may become the country’s worst recorded outbreak of West Nile virus.

Meteorological and ecological shifts driven by climate change are creating a slow and often unpredictable bloom of novel public health challenges across the United States. The American Public Health Association has declared climate change “one of the most serious public health threats facing our nation,” although the precise nature of that threat remains uncertain.

“This is a relatively research-poor area,” said John Balbus, a senior adviser on public health at the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. In 1999, the nation’s first reported cases of West Nile virus spurred interest in the subject, but this soon faded.

Then in 2007, the release of the Fourth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change laid out the scientific consensus on the foundation and widespread consequences of climate change. That “gave public health more confidence to again move forward,” said George Luber, associate director for climate change at the Centers for Disease Control.

The C.D.C. formally established its climate and health program in 2009, and the National Institutes of Health followed suit in 2011.

The short-term challenge, Dr. Balbus said, is making it clear that climate change is not a separate field but rather a background constant with far-reaching health implications. “Just like diet or air pollution, climate influences a whole lot of other factors,” he said.

Infectious disease, waterborne and foodborne pathogens, air pollution, allergies, violent weather and extreme heat waves are all public health concerns potentially affected by climate change. Discerning the degree of this effect, however, means tracing a tortuous path between global climate trends and intensely local demographics and epidemiology.

“Vulnerabilities change tremendously by location,” said Dr. Luber, who cited the different risk profiles of Boston, Miami and Phoenix as an example. So the C.D.C. is working with 18 states to develop regional adaptation plans for emerging public health risks. That involves integrating environmental data like surface temperature and land-use type with social and economic data to create a map of future public health vulnerabilities.

nytimes

[Graeme]

New UN "atlas" links climate change, health

Two U.N. agencies have mapped the intersection of health and climate in an age of global warming, showing that there are spikes in meningitis when dust storms hit and outbreaks of dengue fever when hard rains come.
Officials said Monday that their "Atlas of Health and Climate" is meant to be a tool for leaders to use to get early warning of disease outbreaks.
Though the data or conclusions aren't necessarily new, the way in which they are presented may sharpen governments' ability to respond to the threats posed by rising temperatures and changing climate.

Since 2005, for example, the atlas shows that the weekly number of cases of meningitis, which is spread by bacteria and germs, has risen when the dry season hits sub-Saharan Africa, where it has killed an estimated 25,000 people over the past 10 years. And since at least 1998, there has been a strong seasonal pattern of dengue fever, transmitted by mosquitoes, during periods of heavy rainfall in tropical and subtropical areas, killing about 15,000 people a year.
The joint project of the World Health Organization and World Meteorological Organization, both based in Geneva, says the likelihood of increasingly frequent heat waves hitting the planet is four to 10 times as often by 2050 — and they will probably most affect the fast-growing vulnerable populations of aging and urban people particularly in Africa, the Middle East and Asia.

"Many diseases including malaria, dengue, meningitis — just a few examples — these are what we call climate-sensitive diseases, because such climate dimensions for rainfall, humidity and temperature would influence the epidemics, the outbreaks, either directly influencing the parasites or the mosquitoes that carry them," said Dr. Margaret Chan, the director-general of the U.N. health agency.

yahoo

who

[Graeme]

How Climate Change Is Fueling A Rise In Deadly Diseases

In the summer of 2012, the mosquito-borne West Nile virus made a surprising comeback in America. In Dallas, the most affected region, 400 people contracted the disease and 19 of them died. That came as a shock to public health officials, since West Nile virus was thought to be in such precipitous decline that it was practically eradicated.

Now, a little detective work has led epidemiologists to the reason for its resurgence: warmer winters and wetter springs. In other words, the consequences of global climate change are fueling West Nile. And it’s just the tip of the iceberg. Health officials expect the number of people contracting other infectious diseases to rise right alongside global temperatures.

The diseases that are propagated by climate change tend to come in fungal, algal, tick-borne, and mosquito-borne forms. For instance, dengue fever — which causes a high fever, painful head and body aches, and rashes — will likely continue infecting Americans in hot and humid climates, as well as regions that are close to warming oceans:


But it’s not just coastal and humid regions that are feeling the effects of diseases that are propped up by climate change. In the western United States, states like New Mexico, Arizona, and California are experiencing an inexplicable rise in Valley fever, which causes head and neck aches, serious respiratory problems, has no cure or vaccine, and can be lethal. The condition is caused by fungus that resides in spores in the soil that are lifted off of the ground due to dry weather that is a consequence of global warming-related drought.

thinkprogress

[Graeme]

Deadly diseases and climate change

Last summer, 400 people in Dallas, Texas contracted the mosquito-borne West Nile virus and 19 of them died. "That came as a shock to public health officials, since West Nile virus was thought to be in such precipitous decline that it was practically eradicated."

And why did this happen? Climate change. Those two words mean so many different things, they end up meaning everything and then nothing. But one of the many things that climate change means is warmer winters and wetter springs.


In response, the whole world changes. Some parts get dryer and some wetter, but on average mostly hotter and in the tropics, more humid. "The diseases that are propagated by climate change tend to come in fungal, algal, tick-borne, and mosquito-borne forms. For instance, dengue fever -- which causes a high fever, painful head and body aches, and rashes -- will likely continue infecting Americans in hot and humid climates, as well as regions that are close to warming oceans:

And it's not just the atmosphere that is warming. In fact, most of the heat we associate with global warming is in the oceans where it affects "aquatic wildlife like reef fish. Dangerous algal blooms, which are caused by warmer waters and dying coral reefs, can infect fish that eventually makes its way into the human food chain. In 2007, nine North Carolina residents contracted ciguatera, or fish poisoning, from infected fish that had been caught off the coast of Florida." -

redding

[Ibon]

Not baffling, just a consequence. Read the first sentence of my tag line at the bottom.

[Tanada]

Modern Americans really have no idea what a 'deadly disease' is. 150 years ago Dysentery and Cholera routinely killed tens of thousands of Americans every year. Pneumonia both Viral and Bacterial together was the leading killer in the USA causing around 40% of all deaths in old age. Mumps, Measles, Rubella, Scarlet Fever, Diphtheria all killed thousands every year. Heck Influenza kills around 24,000 every year in North America, but it does it in dribs and drabs instead of all at once like the 1918 outbreak that killed hundreds of thousands. It wasn't until Penicillin and the Polio vaccine that deaths from disease became a moderate cause of death in the USA. Before then more than half of all deaths were from one form of disease or another.

400 people got sick and less than 20 died? Whoopty Doo! That isn't the least bit shocking to anyone in a health department who is the least bit honest of a major metropolitan area. Very likely most of the deaths were people who had other health problems that weakened their immune systems. Even a common cold can kill you if something else attacks you at the same time dividing your bodies defense systems.

[Graeme]

I was merely pointing out the situation in USA now. Deaths by disease and heat stress are expected to get worse in America and globally in the years ahead.

• Malaria: By 2080, an estimated 260-320 million more people around the world will be affected by malaria as a result of climate change. Children are most at risk: 75% of malaria deaths occur in children under five.
• Dengue fever/DHS: Children aged three to five have a greater risk of developing dengue hemorrhagic fever, which has a death rate of 50%. By 2080, about 2.5 billion more people will be at risk of contracting dengue fever globally. The disease has shifted north and has already reached the borderlands of Mexico and the United States.
• West Nile Virus, Rift Valley fever, and Chikungunya fever have also demonstrated shifts related to higher temperatures and increased precipitation from climate change.
• Tick-borne Disease: Cases of Lyme disease have increased from less than 100 cases per year in 2000 to more than 500 in 2007, and may continue to expand its reach northward. Ticks carrying encephalitis and Rocky Mountain spotted fever are also projected to shift from south to north as temperatures rise.

More than 100 million people will die and the global economy will miss out on as much as 3.2 percent of its potential output annually by 2030 if the world fails to tackle climate change, a report commissioned by 20 governments said on Wednesday.

It calculated that five million deaths occur each year from air pollution, hunger and disease as a result of climate change and carbon-intensive economies, and that toll would likely rise to six million a year by 2030 if current patterns of fossil fuel use continue.

More than 90 percent of those deaths will occur in developing countries, said the report that calculated the human and economic impact of climate change on 184 countries in 2010 and 2030. It was commissioned by the Climate Vulnerable Forum, a partnership of 20 developing countries threatened by climate change.

huffingtonpost

Climate-sensitive diseases are among the largest global killers. Diarrhea, malaria and protein-energy malnutrition alone caused more than 3.3 million deaths globally in 2002, with 29% of these deaths occurring in the Region of Africa. Deadly diseases often associated with hot weather, like the West Nile virus, Cholera and Lyme disease, are spreading rapidly throughout North America and Europe because increased temperatures in these areas allow disease carriers like mosquitoes, ticks, and mice to thrive.

climate

NRDC released a report [this week] projecting that more than 150,000 additional Americans could die by the end of this century due to excessive heat caused by climate change. This startling conclusion is based on peer-reviewed scientific papers published recently by Dr. Larry Kalkstein and colleagues.

thinkprogress

[Ibon]

Heck Influenza kills around 24,000 every year in North America, but it does it in dribs and drabs instead of all at once like the 1918 outbreak that killed hundreds of thousands.

The influenza outbreak of 1918 killed 3-5% of the human population of what was then around 2 billion. The estimate is between 30 and 50 million died from that pandemic. To put that into perspective, if the same 3-5% fatality percentage would be applied to today's global population of 7 billion then a similar virulent H1N1 flu virus would kill between 210 and 350 million humans.

An event that does in 5% of a species population or even much worse has been a rather common experience in our biosphere since Homo Sapiens became Kudzu Ape.

[Lore]

I've been meaning to ask, what the heck is a Kudzu Ape anyway?

[Tanada]

I've been meaning to ask, what the heck is a Kudzu Ape anyway?

Kudzu is an oriental vine that grows incredibly fast. It sends its roots deep and it sends its vines creeping along the ground where they root into the soil for anchorage and nutrients as well as up any vertical surface it can cling too. It only stops growing when the ground basically freezes and it is excessively hardy and difficult to eradicate. It has been called the Vine That Ate The South because in the deep south it was imported as a raw soil stabilizer for construction sites and road embankments but it grew too fast for that purpose. Once established if you are in a frost free zone it is a total PITA to get rid of.

An Ape is a Primate humanoid in form that lakes an external tail structure. Monkeys have tails, apes do not.

Kudzu Ape is an ape who spreads everywhere it can survive overwhelming everything else in the ecosystem it invades. i.e. 20th century Homo Sapiens Sapiens.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kudzu

[Tanada]

[C8]

Heck Influenza kills around 24,000 every year in North America, but it does it in dribs and drabs instead of all at once like the 1918 outbreak that killed hundreds of thousands.

The influenza outbreak of 1918 killed 3-5% of the human population of what was then around 2 billion. The estimate is between 30 and 50 million died from that pandemic. To put that into perspective, if the same 3-5% fatality percentage would be applied to today's global population of 7 billion then a similar virulent H1N1 flu virus would kill between 210 and 350 million humans.

An event that does in 5% of a species population or even much worse has been a rather common experience in our biosphere since Homo Sapiens became Kudzu Ape.

The 1918 epidemic is an incredible story and one I have studied a lot, as well as other epidemics. I have talked with several doctors about what would happen if these diseases came back. It should be noted that the number of deaths from epidemics has decreased greatly since the 1950's flu outbreak. One of the big reasons that killer diseases from the past did so much damage was because medical people, and the public, didn't have the technology to maintain hydration as we do today with IV drips. Dehydration greatly increases the death rate of any disease (and especially those causing diarrhea, vomiting or sweats) . Sanitation also was terrible in hospitals. The death rates have really declined greatly from epidemics since IV's and sanitation have been improved.

[Ibon]

I've been meaning to ask, what the heck is a Kudzu Ape anyway?

Tanada answered that brilliantly. I would just add..... you and me......

[Ibon]

. Sanitation also was terrible in hospitals. The death rates have really declined greatly from epidemics since IV's and sanitation have been improved.

Of course from having read my posts you probably have noticed that I despair the loss of our predators which leaves me no choice but to point out a few flaws in your almost cavalier confidence that we have pathogens under control. Although I recognize the differences you mentioned for the managing of pandemics here are a few counter arguments that come to mind.

The vectors (airplanes) that spread disease are far more abundant in 2013 than in 1918

The recombination of influenza DNA between chickens, pigs and humans is as prevalent if not more so in 2013 than 1918 through our agriculture practices. In other words, the likely hood of virulent strains emerging is as prevalent as ever. The situation is perfectly analogous with San Francisco earthquakes since the 8.5 seismic event of 1906. All quakes since then have been smaller and less destructive but the risk is as prevalent as ever. So it is with the less virulent strains of influenza since 1918. It is only a question of time until a magnitude 9 virulent influenza virus, with that perfect combination of virulence and ease of spreading, emerges.

The density of human populations in urban areas far exceeds anything we saw on the planet in 1918.

Hydration therapy with IV drips, although cheap and easy, could easily be overwhelmed by the sheer number of patients if a pandemic can get beyond initial containment.

At some point a game changing pathogen will pass through our net that has more holes in it than you assume. It is just a question of patience. With these examples I haven't had to move into any novel exotic scenarios like climate change spreading tropical pathogens northwards. That is more speculative.

[Graeme]

Climate Change Impacts from the National Climate Assessment: Focus on Effects of Emerging Infectious Disease on Human Health

In a previous post, I outlined some of the ways in which climate change is increasing the severity of extreme heat and heat wave episodes and affecting human health across the United States. In the second in a series of blogs on human health impacts, I’d like to focus here on the ways in which human exposure to infectious disease vectors (that is, disease-carrying insects like fleas, ticks, and mosquitoes) is increasing due to climate change. As we will see, there is great potential for disease rates in humans to increase.


Elevated global temperatures are increasing both the frequency of reproduction and the amount of feeding as well as the geographical distribution of disease-carrying insects across the United States. Extremes in temperature, surface water, precipitation, and humidity are increasing the populations of mosquitoes, ticks, fleas, and also that of the parasites and diseases these insects carry. For example, a disease ecologist recently reported that the larvae of malaria-carrying mosquitoes are known to speed up their metabolism as temperatures increase, which means their adult life spans are getting shorter and they are biting to feed more often. Complicating this is the fact—unrelated to climate change—that disease-causing bacteria and viruses have increased rates of mutation and resistance to vaccines and other drugs developed to treat and prevent infectious disease.

Some of the diseases these insects carry that threaten populations in North America are dengue fever, Lyme disease, West Nile Virus, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, and tularemia. Others not currently present in our continent, like Chagas disease, Rift Valley fever viruses, and chikungunya can nevertheless present threats because infected travelers from endemic regions like the Caribbean can bring these diseases along with them when they travel to the United States. You may have seen chikungunya mentioned recently in the news, as local cases in U.S. territories in the Caribbean have been reported.

nrdc