[Sixstrings]

China’s most powerful military leader, in an unusual public statement, last week ordered military forces to prepare for combat, as Chinese warships deployed to waters near disputed islands and anti-Japan protests throughout the country turned violent.

Protests against the Japanese government’s purchase of three privately held islands in the Senkakus chain led to mass street protests, the burning of Japanese flags, and attacks on Japanese businesses and cars in several cities. Some carried signs that read “Kill all Japanese,” and “Fight to the Death” over disputed islands. One sign urged China to threaten a nuclear strike against Japan.

Gen. Xu Caihou, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, considered the most senior military political commissar, said Friday that military forces should be “prepared for any possible military combat,” state run Xinhua news agency reported.

Heightened tensions over the Senkakus come as Defense Secretary Leon Panetta arrived in China Monday.

Panetta, in comments made in Japan shortly before traveling to China, said, “We are concerned by the demonstrations, and we are concerned by the conflict that is taking place over the Senkaku islands.”

...

A U.S. official said the PLA’s most senior political general rarely makes such direct appeals to troops to prepare for combat.
http://freebeacon.com/chinese-general-prepare-for-combat/

This is all over the Senkaku islands which the Japanese government recently purchased from a private Japanese. Islands are uninhabited but there are oil and gas reserves surrounding.

My other thread got merged with embassy attacks, but this is unrelated to the Islamic protests.

So, question for the thread, how will this go? What's the solution here? I can't remember what happened with the Falklands, if the Brits ever agreed to some profit sharing from possible oil. That would have to be what China is leveraging to get here, either that or stall Japanese oil exploration. They can't really go to war for the islands, they won't just get them handed over, but if they rattle enough sabres I suppose they'll get a cut on it.

[Plantagenet]

... profit sharing from possible oil. That would have to be what China is leveraging to get here, either that or stall Japanese oil exploration. They can't really go to war for the island....

Why not?

Maybe a war won't be needed---maybe China will just occupy the island---possession is 9/10s of ownership, as they say. I can't see Japan re-invading if China occupies it. AND, China has similar claims all the way down to the Phillipines. Whatever happens here may set the stage for China's conflicts with Taiwan, Vietnam and the Phillipines over similar disputed islands.

[Sixstrings]

Maybe a war won't be needed---maybe China will just occupy the island---possession is 9/10s of ownership, as they say. I can't see Japan re-invading if China occupies it. AND, China has similar claims all the way down to the Phillipines. Whatever happens here may set the stage for China's conflicts with Taiwan, Vietnam and the Phillipines over similar disputed islands.

Good point. They can plant those activists on the island and then have a casus belli to occupy to "protect" the activists they put there.

I wonder what's changed here, though. The islands ARE Japanese:

Japan controlled the islands from 1895 until its surrender at the end of World War II. The United States administered them as part of the United States Civil Administration of the Ryukyu Islands from 1945 until 1972, when the islands reverted to Japanese control under the Okinawa Reversion Treaty between the United States and Japan.[5]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senkaku_islands

Yet it's touchy, and Japan has never developed them:

The islands are an issue in foreign relations between Japan and the PRC and between Japan and the ROC.[6] Despite the complexity of relations between the PRC and ROC, both governments agree that the islands are part of Taiwan as part of Toucheng Township in Yilan County of their respective divisions. Japan does not officially recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state,[3] and regards the islands as a part of Ishigaki, Okinawa Prefecture and acknowledges neither the claims of the PRC nor ROC to the islands. The Japanese government has not allowed Ishigaki to develop the islands.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senkaku_islands

So, what has changed. Is Japan ready to explore for oil.

Peak oil? Time for the resource wars over miserable barren rocks in the ocean with oil nearby?

[Plantagenet]

I wonder what's changed here, though. The islands ARE Japanese:

Japan controlled the islands from 1895 until its surrender at the end of World War II. The United States administered them as part of the United States Civil Administration of the Ryukyu Islands from 1945 until 1972, when the islands reverted to Japanese control under the Okinawa Reversion Treaty between the United States and Japan.[5]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senkaku_islands

Japan stole the islands from China in the First Sino-Japan war (1893-5). The Japanese Imperial navy defeated the Chinese Navy and Japanese ground forces invaded Korea and Taiwan and the Japanese forced China to cede Korea, Taiwan and various islands to them at that time.

[dolanbaker]

I can't remember what happened with the Falklands, if the Brits ever agreed to some profit sharing from possible oil.

Ther was never any deal made, thaat's why Argentina (with support form other Latin Americal countries) is making it difficult for any company exploring in the south Atlantic to operate by preventing access to Latin American ports.

China at this stage are more likely to just let it's citizens "invade" for them and defend their rights to be there should Japan try to take back the islands.

[dorlomin]

Japan has a highly regarded surface fleet. I cannot see how China can hold onto something so small against a blockade. The risk is not worth the pay off. Especially if it coalesces an anti China alliance in the region.

Sabre rattling in public but quiet words behind closed doors.

[seahorse3]

Warfare isn't just shooting bombs. There are reports the Chinese may dump Japanese bonds, and apparently the Chinese are the largest holder of Japanese bonds. That's just one form of warfare. The Japanese economy is weak right now. It has been struggling with stagnation for a long time. Many pundits believe it as at its last end, that something like hyperinflation may take hold for various reasons. Then tack on Fukoshima which was a kick to the Japanese economic groin. I'm not sure the Japanese are capable of waging economic or all out war with China. The Chinese smell Japanese economic rot and are getting aggressive. After what the Japanese did to the Chinese, which the Chinese have not forgotten, I'm not sure I blame the Chinese.

[dorlomin]

There are reports the Chinese may dump Japanese bonds, and apparently the Chinese are the largest holder of Japanese bonds.

And when it has done that what has it gained?

What has it lost?

The whole chess board will still be there, the other players watching and calculating, Japan seeing Chinas best shot and working out where it went.

And what off Chinas internal stability? You think protests against Japan are the only thing going on? Why would China partially harm its own economy while giving the malcontents a reason to be on the street?

China his built up on safety and caution internationally. Japan on great care on limiting its assertiveness. There is more to lose for both here than to gain.

[ColossalContrarian]

This is a huge development and may deserve it's own thread but it looks like China is taking things up a notch warfare comes in many flavors....

Bond Wars: Chinese Advisor Calls For Japanese Bond Dump
From ZeroHedge

China is actively considering "using its power as Japan’s biggest creditor with $230bn (£141bn) of bonds to "impose sanctions on Japan in the most effective manner" and bring Tokyo’s festering fiscal crisis to a head." I.e., dump Japan's bonds en masse.

-> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bond-wars-chinese-advisor-calls-japanese-bond-dump

[ColossalContrarian]

If China dumps Japanese bonds it will bring the entire world in to the scrum. Eyes will move from Iran further East...

[PrestonSturges]

If China wants to roll the dice with the world economy, everyone else is going to be more than happy to embargo them and let China go dark while the rest of the world solves its unemployment problem.

[dolanbaker]

If China wants to roll the dice with the world economy, everyone else is going to be more than happy to embargo them and let China go dark while the rest of the world solves its unemployment problem.

China is big enough to operate indepentantly of the rest of the financial world, they'll trade in products rather than fiat currency.

[JohnRM]

After what the Japanese did to the Chinese, which the Chinese have not forgotten, I'm not sure I blame the Chinese.

The Japanese didn't do anything to China. Virtually no one that took part in WWII is still alive. The people of Japan today have never harmed the Chinese.

[dolanbaker]

After what the Japanese did to the Chinese, which the Chinese have not forgotten, I'm not sure I blame the Chinese.

The Japanese didn't do anything to China. Virtually no one that took part in WWII is still alive. The people of Japan today have never harmed the Chinese.

History can be a huge millstone on the attitudes of the people of a country, especially if the state has a policy of reminding the population via history lessons.

Ireland is a classic example where a significant percentage of the population have anti British feelings based on "800 years of occupation!". Germany still suffers a bit from the Hitler years.

The same could be said about the US, there is a certain element who are still very anti British.

So yes, when the current generation are taught in school that the islands were taken, they're easy to stoke up any anti Japanese feelings as the "fuse" is already there.

[sparky]

.
this incident turn out to have more layers than a lasagne
the Chinese communist party kiss the Kuomintang from Taiwan against the evil japs
people daily
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90785/7953164.html

there is a lot of popular feelings in the street , in Asia of course everybody HATE the japs
but the Chinese rulers might have found themselves slightly uncomfortable in their Armani suits
during the riots and demonstrations there were posters of chairman Mao brandished
the subtext is clear , he had balls you just got bank accounts
It's a time of political transition in China , it happen every decade or so
usually it's nicely and boringly choreographed
this year it went in all directions with murder , scandals ,
a top cop seeking refuge in an American consulate , mysterious disappearances
this Japan China tiff is also nicely timed to squeeze the U.S.
Panetta has just announced an extension of the missile shield to be deployed in Japan
obviously directed at China's nukes capabilities

Japan was always a rock solid ally , certain of being backed by Uncle Sam
now this is open to question on this small issue
China threaten the stick and America is not to keen on getting involved
it would be nice for Beijing to demonstrate to Tokyo that the American umbrella is for sunny days only

[seahorse3]

If the consequences of war were a deterent to war, there would be no war. But, there is. So, maybe the consequences of China starting a war would not be in their best interest, I don't think that's a deterent. Unfortunately, people/countries don't act on logic, but on emotion. If consequences detered conduct, we wouldn't have crime, divorce, war. Governments are no more rational than the individuals that comprise them. It may be logical to develop clean energy, even mandate things like CAFE standards, EV, NGV, etc., but we don't. In my opinion, consequences don't seem to ever deter.

If consequences deterred war, the Japanese wouldn't have taken the perceived "first step" by buying the islands.

Now, I said based on what the Japanese did to the Chinese in WWII, I understand the Chinese anger at Japan. The response to that statement was Chinese anger at Japan is not justified for anything that happened during WWII, for the Japanese today didn't do anything to the Chinese today. But history does matter and affects everything. History sets the course of the future. That's why there is still so much anger in China at the Japanese. That is why the American Indian still wrangles with the US government, why the US govt paid reparations to Japanese citizens interned during WWII, why the Jews and Muslims still hate each other, and any number of examples.

[JohnRM]

That's right. The US paid reparations to those actually interned during WWII. Notice that we have not paid the descendants of slaves. I'm not denying reality here. I'm just disputing the logic behind it.

[seahorse3]

John, logic does dictate a different resolution than emotion, but unfortunately, I think most decisions even at the nation level are dictated by emotion and not logic.

[gandolf]

I cant imagin any country would be will ing to go to war over oil...
I mean thats just silly

[SeaGypsy]

Ultimately China will be ruled over at sea, by the alliance. The least vulnerable oil supplies they depend on are coming over the water. Never mind the pissantry over these piddling islands and 'possible reserves'. The real stuff is coming vast distances over the ocean. There is no way China can risk being cut off from oil supplies by any means.