[Serial_Worrier]

Last afternoon I paid around 3.80/gallon for 92 octane. Just in the summer it was costing 4.40. I think the oil/gas situation has stabilized and good times are ahead!

[Fishman]

Or, the economy is approaching collapse since everyone is laying off since November 6th

[basil_hayden]

They knocked a quarter off so we could all go shopping. It'll be back to $4/gal in January.

[lowem]

So I take it that the good news is that it's nowhere near those stratospheric $5 levels, so the economy could still continue to "grow" for a while.

[Serial_Worrier]

They knocked a quarter off so we could all go shopping. It'll be back to $4/gal in January.

DO you know how commodity markets work?

[basil_hayden]

They knocked a quarter off so we could all go shopping. It'll be back to $4/gal in January.

DO you know how commodity markets work?

Yeah, I know they're manipulated to get 70% of our economy spending for a month or two.

[Pops]

The US is a big ol place, different state taxes, different suppliers: some make their own, some import from other states, some import from other countries...

http://gasbuddy.com/gb_gastemperaturema ... ft=A&tl=48

^gasbuddy map doesn't seem to work...


Miles driven per capita as a percentage of 1971 level and gas prices...

[Tanada]

I have long argued unsuccessfully that whenever the retail price of gas falls more than ten cents the USA should add a penny of new fuel tax a week until it regains its former price and make the tax permanent. Such a subtle increase would be invisible in the fluctuating market but over the course of a few years would make a large impact without the slamming on the brakes analogy being applicable.

If they had set this up in 1985 for example when gasoline in my region was around $1.249 a gallon then when the price crashed to $0.869 a gallon in 1986 the tax would have kicked in and by 1987 it would have been back to its former $1.249 that people had gotten used too without causing any undue disruption in the economy and with substantially more money flowing to the government coffers. Average people crave low prices first, but secondly they crave stability so that they can plan their lives accordingly. With this type of law none of the price crashes would be sustained long enough to cause people to change their behavior. The SUV craze and the Hummer would have been non viable before they ever came into existence and the luxury pick up truck (Lincoln Mark LT) instead of the practical work truck (Ford F 150) would still be a laughable thought. I grew up in farm country surrounded by beat up farm pick up trucks, every time I see one of those luxury models I shake my head in amusement.

If the proposed law had been put in place in say 2005 instead of 1985 then when the price here crashed from $4.20 to $1.95 in 2009 the taxes would have been pushing it back up before it ever got that low. The price crash started the last week of August 2008 and kept declining until the first of the year falling a total of about $2.25 over 13 weeks. If my proposal had been a law then $0.13 of new taxes would have been added during those 13 weeks and nobody would have noticed. That would have left a gap of $2.12 so the tax would have kept increasing one cent a week while at the same time the price was recovering. Between January 1, 2009 and June 14, 2009 the retail price recovered a dollar, the stabilization law would have added another 22 cents to that during this same time period. This would have made the bottom of the low 13 cents higher and the recovery another 22 cents higher by mid June so by mid 2009 the price would have recovered $1.35 of the $2.25 it lost in the crash. Historically the price remained below $3.00 until February 2011, but with the stabilization law adding a penny a week it would have done so around the fourth of July 2009 and would have kept climbing slowly through the rest of the year to hit $3.30 by January 2010 and added another $0.52 through the course of 2010. By January 2011 the combination of world oil price and the new Federal taxes would have the price back to where it was in August 2008. The May 2011 world oil price spike would have set a new high level for the price of gasoline at the pump and the tax would have kicked in slowing the sixty cent slide and bringing us back to the new level around January 2012. The price would be relatively stable and people would be used to more expensive fuel causing them to alter their lifestyles in a much more seamless way without the massive swings we have seen over the last four years.

[Beery1]

Last afternoon I paid around 3.80/gallon for 92 octane. Just in the summer it was costing 4.40. I think the oil/gas situation has stabilized and good times are ahead!

Yeah, gas prices are waaay down. Historically, they haven't been this low in November since...

Oh wait, they've ALWAYS been lower than this in November!

[Pops]

I agree Tanada.

Hamilton's theory is that it isn't the absolute cost of oil but the spike that does the damage to the economy - up to a certain number I agree.

I don't think the problem is 'changing horses in midstream', with the economy functioning well there would be plenty of surplus to move to a different model not so reliant on oil. The problem is beating the old nag all the way into the dirt and only then realizing you don't have enough surplus (without the nag) to come up with an alternative.

[Serial_Worrier]

Last afternoon I paid around 3.80/gallon for 92 octane. Just in the summer it was costing 4.40. I think the oil/gas situation has stabilized and good times are ahead!

Yeah, gas prices are waaay down. Historically, they haven't been this low in November since...

Oh wait, they've ALWAYS been lower than this in November!

They're still low relative to income. Especially compared to Europeans.

[Beery1]

Last afternoon I paid around 3.80/gallon for 92 octane. Just in the summer it was costing 4.40. I think the oil/gas situation has stabilized and good times are ahead!

Yeah, gas prices are waaay down. Historically, they haven't been this low in November since...

Oh wait, they've ALWAYS been lower than this in November!

They're still low relative to income. Especially compared to Europeans.

Americans aren't Europeans. Americans don't react the same way Europeans do to gasoline prices or to taxes. I know because I'm a European who has lived two decades in Europe and two decades in America. And Americans aren't putting the same gasoline taxes into infrastructure that European gasoline taxes allow in Europe. The situations are entirely different. To see how different, just go up to a motorist in the US and suggest raising gasoline taxes to European levels. When he stops laughing, tell him you're serious and watch him start laughing again.

Prices will still be low relative to income at $10/gallon, $20/gallon and $50/gallon. But your point was that the situation has stabilized and good times are ahead. At first I thought you might be joking. I'm just trying to figure out how you come to your conclusion when prices have never been this high in November. I mean, prices fluctuate over the year and if anything, the price now suggests that prices next summer will be even higher that $4.40/gallon. While I'm sure such a price will not herald the Apocalypse, I think it's ridiculous to suggest that good times are ahead.