[Pops]

Diane Sawyer says;

Reporter: The good news comes on the heels of a game-changing headline from the internal energy agency.
They predict the u. S. Will be energy independent by 2030.
And become the world's largest exporter of oil, surpassing, counties like saudi arabia, venezuela, nigeria and even iran.

{Sound} Link

haha, so considering we consume 18-20MMb/d of which we import 8-10MMb/d, not only will we conserve our way to "independence" by consuming 8-10MMb/d less, I guess we'll conserve another 8-10MMb/d so that we can export more than Russia or KSA!

I guess Dick was wrong, not only does Diane think we can conserve our way to energy independence but we can even conserve our way to becoming the leading exporter!

Our Friends The Oil & Gas Producers have really made a coup this time.

http://www.eia.gov/countries/index.cfm?topL=imp

[Pops]

Wait a minute, I guess we'll need to conserve 30MMb/d if we are to be the biggest exporter!

[Lore]

China and India are very happy about being able to use all this excess energy for the gas tanks of their new Buicks.

[Plantagenet]

You can't blame Diane Sawyer for saying this ---- she is just reporting on the official position of the Obama administration.

The predictions of US energy independence etc. come from the EIA, which is a branch of the US Department of Energy.


"A nation that can't control its energy sources can't control its future."--Barack Obama

[Pops]

Let me explain for those trapped in their rut:

The IEA, (not controlled by Obama) said we'll be producing as much as KSA - not exporting as much as KSA...
and that we'll be "independent" because we'll only be consuming half as much as today.

So, see the irony in my post?
See the mistake in the story?

The US would need to conserve 8MMb/d to be independent by producing 10MMb/d
We'd need to produce another 10MMb/d to export more than KSA who exports 10MMb/d

or export ALL we produce.

[rockdoc123]

I have a different spin on this....I posted it in another thread. Basically if the shale oil success continues there will be way too much oil in the US for demand. At that point WTI and Brent will diverge much further from their current disparity. At some point it will seem wildly economic to someone to play the hedge and start shipping North American oil to Europe or the Far East consuming areas. It will take some time but eventually WTI and Brent will start to align

[dinopello]

We'd need to produce another 10MMb/d to export more than KSA who exports 10MMb/d

The statement I think related to 2030. So, what is the prediction for how much oil KSA will be exporting in 2030 ?

[Pops]

As I recall the IEA thinks russia and KSA will be producing essentially the same.

After increasing recently, it looks like US exports have plateaued right now for whatever reason, exports are about the same as a year ago. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_ex ... mbbl_m.htm

Another thing to look at is the failure recently of the proposed Bakken Express pipe to get enough advanced contracts to proceed, its been canceled. So either the guys who are going to have 5MMb/d to ship out (or however much) think Buffet is going to have enough rail cars to handle it or they aren't confident enough they'll have the production to sign on the line. Maybe he's making them a good deal. http://www.energyglobal.com/sectors/pip ... ments.aspx

[vtsnowedin]

I find it disturbing that it was not just a slip of the tongue by Sawyer. The graphics put up on the screen behind her clearly used the word export not production and listed major exporting countries and there MBD exports currently.
I suppose a lot will happen between now and 2030. The bills coming due on 21 trillion of US debt, higher interest rates, hyper inflation, widespread warfare over resources are more likely as not and KSA and others might well be on the backside of their own Hebert's curve. So we could be producing 14 using just 7 and exporting 7 while KSA is down to 6 or less. $25 per gallon gas with $10 of it tax to pay down the federal debt anyone??? Fill me up for if the USA is that far down the loo the rest of the world is already in the tank.

[dinopello]

Back in the 30's probably most people thought there would be flying cars by now. Projections are always off, but I can't think of a time in the US where there was such a disparity and split in the planning outlook between different groups. That usually means there is a lot of money to be made, but you have to pick the right side.

[diemos]

Tsk.

and here I thought Diane had pretensions of being a serious journalist.