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Runaway Semantics Absurdum

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 08:07:23

Well, it's a number, I guess. Personally, I find 42 to be a bit funnier.

Note also that numbers are in fact words.

Anyway, back to the putative topic of this thread:

http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2 ... may-b.html

Ticking Arctic Carbon Bomb May Be Bigger Than Thought

Scientists are expressing fresh concerns about the carbon locked in the Arctic's vast expanse of frozen soil. New field studies, presented here this week at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union, quantify the amount of soil carbon at 1.9 trillion metric tons, suggesting that previous estimates underestimated the climate risk if this carbon is liberated. Meanwhile, a new analysis of laboratory experiments that simulate carbon release by thawed soil is bolstering worries that continued carbon emissions could unleash a massive Arctic carbon wallop.

Disappearing Arctic ice, which gets most of the attention from climate scientists, is an effect of humanmade climate change. By contrast, the melting of frozen soil, or permafrost, can drive warming. As it thaws, microbes devour carbon previously locked inside, unleashing carbon dioxide—a potent greenhouse gas—in the process. The carbon dioxide amplifies the warming power of carbon pollution in a vicious feedback loop.

Scientists have struggled, however, to quantify this threat. Permafrost occurs on a quarter of the Northern Hemisphere landmass—from Alaska to Canada and across Siberia—but researchers have taken far too few readings to feel very confident about the risk. "We are working on really large landmasses with limited data," says physical geographer Gustaf Hugelius of Stockholm University. Measuring the carbon content of permafrost requires muddy field work with heavy drilling machinery, operated in remote areas, and satellite data help little.

Those logistical constraints have largely limited researchers' previous estimates of carbon to the top meter of permafrost. But scientists think that carbon down to a depth of 3 meters is susceptible to thawing and release as well. An influential 2009 estimate that Arctic permafrost held 1.6 trillion metric tons of carbon included only 45 field sites analyzed down to that depth. In the new study, Hugelius added 405 new analyses of field sites that went to 3 meters, some through new field work he and colleagues performed, some from archived data. Adding up the carbon found in different soil types he says, yields an initial new estimate of 1894 billion metric tons of carbon locked into permafrost across the Arctic, 13% more than the previous estimate.


Generally, the more we know, the worse things look.

The total mass of atmospheric carbon dioxide is 3.16×10^15 kg (about 3,000
gigatonnes). I'll leave it to someone who is beamingly proud of their aptitude with numbers to convert that into the total carbon mass in the atmosphere, for comparison. :)
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 09:04:58

dohboi wrote:Note also that numbers are in fact words.
No. Words can describe numbers, but numbers exist without human thought.

Anyway, back to the putative topic of this thread:
Nope the topic was 'runaway global warming is happening now' filled with hysterical postings of every graph and map you dont understand, only for me or someone else a little more mature to point out that you were wrong.

Its boring being right so often, but I bear the burden.

The total mass of atmospheric carbon dioxide is 3.16×10^15 kg (about 3,000
gigatonnes). I'll leave it to someone who is beamingly proud of their aptitude with numbers to convert that into the total carbon mass in the atmosphere, for comparison. :)
4.1813 J/(g.K)

To raise every gram of water by one degree Celsius you need 4.1813 joules.

When people post about new horrors 200 meters deep they are talking about 200 000 liters of water for every square metre of surface area. That is roughly 200 million grams.

It takes decades for the small changes in radiative forcing to warm that much water.

It will take centuries and even millennia for that much permafrost to melt.

Unlike your dishonest strawman, I do not deny a serious problem.

Just that these things will takes decades and centuries to happen.

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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 09:47:10

AgentR11 wrote: And that proves that sea level won't rise enough to be devastating for Houston and Miami, exactly how?
Oh dear.



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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 10:33:15

Ah yes, such well thought out and useful content.
Boggles the mind.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 12:18:33

dorlomin wrote:
AgentR11 wrote:
And that proves that sea level won't rise enough to be devastating for Houston and Miami, exactly how?

See you are deliberately introducing a complete strawman.


Its not a straw anything. Its a simple question.

You folks seem to be saying that because the whole of the permafrost down 100+ meters won't melt any time soon (a point that I absolutely agree with), that nothing devastating or urgent is in play with regard to the net of all these various inputs and feedbacks.

Now, I don't buy the whole off to venus thing, but the Earth has seen much warmer temps, and much higher sea levels before; and the rate of change that we are applying to the system is so much greater than prior rates of change, that I see no reason to discount a 1-2 m increase over the century, or even the first half of this century; and that such an increase would be absolutely devastating.

So, the question stands, do you reject the reasonableness of a 2m rise? Do you think such a rise is anything other than catastrophic?

I really find the concept of the: "off to venus tomorrow" or "no runaway condition" dichotomy , very false and misleading. It looks to me much more along the lines, of runaway is currently engaging, it'll take a few decades to get really brutal on humans as an advanced culture, and several millennia to take us back to a balanced Permian/Triassic maximal like climate, followed by some tens of millions of years of weathering and gradual cooling. Whether its out of our control already, or not, is debatable, but if you factor in political and economic realities, control seems like sci-fi warp drive/ftl wishes and not rational hope.

The only rational response in my mind to this is to accept that its coming, understand we have some time to act, and that we should figure out how to NOT DIE.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby clif » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 16:52:07

numbers exist without human thought.


NO they do NOT.

Numbers are a form of human abstraction used to make sense of the Universe we live in,

Just like the "law of gravity" numbers did not exist before a human invented the abstraction.

What we call gravity existed as a force, but the human abstraction we call the law of gravity did not exist any more then the abstraction we call numbers. The objects or forces we assign the abstraction of numbers might exist in physical form buy the number we assign it does not exist in physical form.

What ever element or mechanism numbers try to explain might exist before human thought abstracted it to make some sense of it.

Numbers did not exist in isolation waiting for a human to find it like Alpha Centuri or black holes did.


Mathematics is in fact a language, one that we use to describe and make sense of the Universe in ways words alone cannot. Just as you cannot speak German or Chinese with out learning the language, neither can you speak calculus or Riemannian geometry with out learning that particular brand of mathematical language. To properly speak any language is the ability to think in said language, and we as humans need to learn the abstract language of numbers before we can speak in numbers or any other language. Just as we need to learn words before we can speak an non mathematical language.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 17:22:52

clif wrote:Numbers are a form of human abstraction used to make sense of the Universe we live in,

:-D

You have confused the names we have for things, with the things themself. A number is a property that an entity can posses. How many moons does the earth have?

If three zebras are standing on the veldt and another joins. There are four. This is a property. There are not eight, because a human is not their to observe and name it.

Counting is not unique to humans: a huge range of animals understand numbers

Many animals have basic numerical abilities, but some experiences can transform their minds and ultimately change how they think about numbers

Simply because we name something Alpha Centari does not mean it did not exist before we named it.


Solipsism is last century. 8)

What clif said.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 17:26:22

AgentR11 wrote:
dorlomin wrote:
and there is enough mechanical and thermal penetration to put that all in play.
Mechanical? Do carry on.


Heave. As the surface melts and refreezes, it expands and contracts. That's called a mechanical force.
Sorry but you forgot to attach your source that this 'mechanical penetration' is an important part of driving permafrost loss and not merely a consequence of it.

Thanks in advance.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 18:04:24

I'm not representing myself as someone publishing, so I appreciate your thanks and interest, but I'm not hunting for something like that. I don't know if it exists. I also did not use the term "important", that one is solely on you to demonstrate if you think it is worth the trouble. The most I can add is seeing the various notorious figures in this debate present "talks" and show examples of permafrost buckling and creating small puddle/ponding which increases the rate of heat conductance and melting.

Do you reject the idea that the top meter of permafrost is likely to melt&decay within this century?

Do you think that a 2 m sea level rise within the century is anything other than catastrophic?

My hunch is that you folks are so desperate to avoid acknowledging the horrific consequences of what most of the arctic science is saying, that you latch on to some of the outlier doom peddlers as opponents, and dismissively pass on discussing the truly massive catastrophe that is a 2m sea level rise.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby clif » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 18:11:41

Simply because we name something Alpha Centari does not mean it did not exist before we named it.


Never said that.

What I actually said,

Numbers did not exist in isolation waiting for a human to find it like Alpha Centuri or black holes did.


and we needed to discover the physical entity, before we used an abstract term to give it a name whether that name is a word, or a number.

Are you purposely being this obtuse?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 18:24:11

AgentR11 wrote:I don't know if it exists.
Thats alright. Mechanical sounded so "sciencey".

Do you reject the idea that the top meter of permafrost is likely to melt&decay within this century?
:lol:

My hunch is that you folks are so desperate to avoid acknowledging the horrific consequences of
The bait and switch is back in full flow. Any challenge to the constant blaring siren of hysteria is boxed as a variant of denialism. Whats more it is catagorised as a personal weakness. I am not as strong and heroic as Dohboi and AgentR11, because I cannot face the full impact blah blah.

Such an implicitly self congratulatory attitude.

How are those methane spikes from Barrow and Zeppelin coming along? Was I right again, that people were panicking over just data gathering errors. I seem to recall dohboi going off about how the scientists had been 'got too' to cover up the news.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 18:26:32

clif wrote:
Simply because we name something Alpha Centari does not mean it did not exist before we named it.


Never said that.

What I actually said,

Numbers did not exist in isolation waiting for a human to find it like Alpha Centuri or black holes did.


and we needed to discover the physical entity, before we used an abstract term to give it a name whether that name is a word, or a number.

Are you purposely being this obtuse?
Numbers are a form of human abstraction used to make sense of the Universe we live in,
and we needed to discover the physical entity, before we used an abstract term to give it a name whether that name is a word, or a number.
Things exist without humans. This includes numbers.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby clif » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 18:41:48

Well you answered the question even if you do not realise you did,

Things exist without humans. This includes numbers.


Numbers do NOT exist as a physical entity whether as matter or force of energy, to be discovered.

Numbers do not exist except for the human mind.

Even your examples are all abstractions, which do not exist in reality.

If three zebras are standing on the veldt and another joins. There are four. This is a property.


By definition, the abstract word If means everything else is a construct of your mind trying to get me or other readers to construct the same abstraction in their mind.

The same with any number. which are words an abstract language we all call mathematics. they did not exist before humans created the idea of a number. Don't think so, why didn't the Roman Empire have a number for the abstract idea of zero. they didn't , why not, if numbers exist outside the abstract language we call mathematics? Why didn't the Greeks have a number for the abstract idea of zero?

For informational purposes the idea of Zero, came into European usage as an abstract number for usage in the language of mathematics from Arabian influence during the middle ages.

To pout it simply, the Arabian influence, during the middle ages, added a word to the language of mathematics Europeans used called Zero. So did Zero the number exist before the Middle ages, not mathematically as far as European mathematicians are concerned, cause they had no abstract term to use for it, thus could not express that idea mathematically.
Last edited by clif on Mon 10 Dec 2012, 18:46:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 18:44:36

dorlomin wrote:Thats alright. Mechanical sounded so "sciencey".


Why would it sound "sciencey"? Its the word I typically use in conversation to describe object acting on object through physical contact. As opposed to a thermal, or chemical, or other action... Its just a regular English word.

:lol:


Why so hostile to the simple question: Do you reject the idea that the top meter of permafrost is likely to melt&decay within this century?

It seems well within the expected outcomes, given current and continued increases in CO2..,

Is it so hard to acknowledge that a runaway climatological effect may appear quite slow to human perceptions? If that effect's primary, but unavoidable, impact is felt strongly only as our grand kids enter adulthood, does that make it somehow LESS catastrophic??
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 19:06:02

clif wrote:Numbers do not exist except for the human mind.
Yet animals can count..[/quote]
which are words an abstract language we all call mathematics.
Words name the property. They are not the property.

Do you believe aliens would not be able to know there is one moon round the earth, becuase not being human, they cannot perceive the property of one thing?

You confuse names with reality.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby clif » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 19:10:53

Yet animals can count..


With out ANY human help?

I have no evidence of that. BTW counting IS an abstract idea, not existing with out a mind doing the counting.

and the number used during counting is still an abstract term.

Do animals use a number?

Do you believe aliens would not be able to know there is one moon round the earth, becuase not being human, they cannot perceive the property of one thing?


Is this the same person denying that the vast amount of the top meter of permafrost is likely to melt&decay within this century?

Now wanting to use the UNPROVEN idea aliens count?

Can you point me to the evidence they do?

Or is this another abstraction you are creating in your mind, that you want us all to participate in?
Last edited by clif on Mon 10 Dec 2012, 19:12:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 19:11:51

AgentR11 wrote:Why so hostile to the simple question:
What hostility.

This is laughing: :lol:

You are trying to change the topic.
Is it so hard to acknowledge that a runaway climatological effect may appear quite slow to human perceptions?
and once more :lol:

My hunch is that you folks are so desperate to avoid acknowledging the horrific consequences of what most of the arctic science is saying, that you latch on to some of the outlier doom peddlers as opponents,
:lol:

There is a nice credible thread about the Arctic. You can see my posts on nice credible science in that thread.

This thread is all about Cid, dohboi and friends and their theories.

Who are you refering too with this line.
outlier doom peddlers as opponents
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 19:16:04

clif wrote:
Yet animals can count..


With out ANY human help?
I have already posted links.
Is this the same person denying that the vast amount of the top meter of permafrost is likely to melt&decay within this century?
Deary me.

Who is denying what now?

Now wanting to use the UNPROVEN idea aliens count?

Good lord. Someone is missing the point of the hypothetical. Perhaps because they think it is an abstract idea.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby clif » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 19:26:14

I'm sorry but in this thread, on one (abstract number BTW) hand, you are demanding strict scientific evidence, and in this philosophical argument, you are presenting abstract ideas with no actual scientific proof ... at the very same time.

Interesting don't you think?

You cannot prove your abstractions but demand irrefutable proof form others which have a much better philosophical argument for their ideas then you have produced as of this time.

I asked for proof, and you claimed you gave it, but not to me.

Deary me.

Who is denying what now?


No denial in the statement I made, even if your trying to infuse the statement with it, to buttress your crumbling duel arguments.

Good lord. Someone is missing the point of the hypothetical. Perhaps because they think it is an abstract idea.


The hypothetical by definition is abstract. It only existed in your mind until you typed the idea in your keyboard, to become 1's and 0's on the internet for the rest of us to read when the computer recreates the characters on our screens as words(abstract ideas) for the rest of us to read.

No physical activity in your statement except for what happens on earth. Thus it MUST be abstract as an idea.

Which leads me to believe your real agenda here is not looking for the truth, but trolling this thread because you disagree with the suppositions posited in the ideas presented here.

Otherwise you wouldn't almost demand I accept unproven abstractions, at the same time trying to refute ideas from others with much better physical and scientific evidence behind them.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 7

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 10 Dec 2012, 19:33:03

dorlomin wrote:You are trying to change the topic.
Is it so hard to acknowledge that a runaway climatological effect may appear quite slow to human perceptions?
and once more :lol:


Nope. Not at all. I am asking a relatively simple question, doesn't require published papers or anything, its even phrased nicely as a "may" instead of a "shall".

Its a question about Runaway Global Warming, its perfectly on topic, and for some odd reason, you keep refusing to answer it. "yes/no/idunno" all perfectly good answers. Or a more elaborate answer if you think there is some nuance there.

nb... Laughing at people when they ask an honest question is a fairly hostile response. No reason it should be interpreted any other way.

There is a nice credible thread about the Arctic. You can see my posts on nice credible science in that thread.

This is the thread about "runaway gw"; ie, have the processes begun that will place atmospheric CO2 concentration outside of our control?

This thread is all about Cid, dohboi and friends and their theories.
Who are you refering too with this line.
outlier doom peddlers as opponents


Basically Cid, a few others support his outlier opinion. Only Cid really seems to have a severe case of passion over it; which is an odd thing to be passionate about, because, if right, its a shrug your shoulders and carry on as you were, and if its wrong.. its a shrug your shoulders and carry on. Its a pointless position.

I think you're making it too personal, by letting the thread be about Cid. The named topic is perfectly reasonable, and suitable for the forum. Are feedbacks currently in play that will trump any counteraction by man; are they soon to occur, will they never occur, will the spaghetti monster melt/save the Earth at the brink?

The loss of summer sea ice really "does it" for me, that's a slow, irreversible feedback, and it changes everything. Whether it makes methane go wonky this decade or next century, doesn't really make much difference to me.
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