[Graeme]

Here are the top three risks facing the world

From the people at the World Economic Forum, the wonky global thinkers responsible for the yearly Davos conference, comes a new report that reinforces many of the world’s greatest worries over the past year: The rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer, public debt is at catastrophic levels and weather is getting weirder.
For the second year in a row, the biggest global risks are income inequality, government debt and rising greenhouse gases, according to the panel of 1,000 industry and government experts the WEF interviewed. But the risks that will have the most impact are systemic financial failure, government debt and crises in the water supply:

Two of those risks are interrelated. Although many say a total eurozone destruction is now not likely, the prospect of its collapse was sparked by one of the other WEF risks, a “failure to redress excessive government debt obligations,” as Forum puts it.

Though the risks mostly stayed the same from last year’s report, respondents this year saw them as more likely to happen and as having a higher impact.
“Two storms — environmental and economic — are on a collision course,” said John Drzik, the head of Oliver Wyman Group and one of the experts surveyed for the report.

Water risk made headlines during the drought that scorched countries around the world last summer, but it’s actually a much broader issue that causes unique problems in different countries, according to Rob Kimball, an associate at the World Resources Institute, an environmental think tank.

“For some communities it’s as basic as drinking water availability, or unsustainable groundwater extraction leading to the intrusion of saltwater, particularly in coastal areas like those near California and the Gulf of Mexico” he said. “But drinking water is just a tiny bit of the puzzle – 70 percent of the water we consume around the world is used for agriculture.”

Elsewhere, water risks touches everything from shipping to electricity production. The Mississippi River, for example, is already so low after this year’s drought that there’s a chance cargo vessels soon won’t be able to navigate a section of it, which could potentially affect even global commodity markets. In India, low rainfall reduced hydroelectric capacity and increased pressure on the electric grid, contributing to widespread blackouts over the summer.


Developed in partnership with the editors of Nature, a leading science journal, the chapter on “X Factors” looks beyond the landscape of 50 global risks to alert decision-makers to five emerging game-changers:

Runaway climate change: Is it possible that we have already passed a point of no return and that Earth’s atmosphere is tipping rapidly into an inhospitable state?

Significant cognitive enhancement: Ethical dilemmas akin to doping in sports could start to extend into daily working life; an arms race in the neural “enhancement” of combat troops could also ensue.

Rogue deployment of geoengineering: Technology is now being developed to manipulate the climate; a state or private individual could use it unilaterally.

Costs of living longer: Medical advances are prolonging life, but long-term palliative care is expensive. Covering the costs associated with old age could be a struggle.

Discovery of alien life: Proof of life elsewhere in the universe could have profound psychological implications for human belief systems.

washingtonpost

[radon]

Wrong. Everyone reading this forum has learned that the tops risks are as follows:

1. Obama.
2. Resource depletion.
3. Population pressures.
4. Obama.
5. Obama.
6. Climate change.
7. Obama.

[Pops]

Discovery of alien life: Proof of life elsewhere in the universe could have profound psychological implications for human belief systems.

Shows where these people are, "proof" has nothing to do with "belief".

--
But my guess as to the greatest threat is the increasing dependence on a global supply chain, not that I'd expect that to come up.

The example I always use is that 80% of the almonds used in the world are now grown in just a few counties in central California. Hardly a existential threat, just one I'm familiar with. The climate is ideal but that isn't the reason the production is concentrated there, it was a concerted effort that promoted the product and built the infrastructure. The "problem" is that nowhere else in the world is there now the infrastructure required to grow and process almonds. Those areas have the right climate but that haven't concentrated on the one crop can no longer compete with the efficiency that CA developed... and exports via cheap transportation. But, remove the cheap transportation or reduce the CA production because of whatever and no almonds for your rocca because what production and infrastructure there was for almonds elsewhere is gone.


The same situation applies to most everything in the modern world, from high voltage utility scale transformers to the spit screen on your cell phone mic.

The consequence is, even a localized financial or production or transportation failure is now global.

Take the Mississippi river ...

[ian807]

Disagree. These are a bunch of scattered crises stemming from the primary crises which are:

1) Economic failure of most or all major world economies.

2) Energy decline (which continues even as absolute oil supplies increase)

3) Nuclear war (an oldie but goodie which hasn't gone *anywhere*)

4) Solar Flare like the 1859 Carrington event (low probability, but extraordinarily large consequences)

5) Nonlinear supply chain collapse due to items 1 through 4.

6) Massive ecological collapse of rain forest ecologies (Breathe much? You should be concerned.)

Note that global warming is not on the list. While there are winners and losers in that scenario, it's not ultimately fatal.

[autonomous]

Apophis May Destroy Some Earth’s Satellites In 2029

April 13, 2029, Apophis will come so close that it may destroy satellites in orbit.
The European Space Agency's Herschel space observatory has acquired new images of the asteroid and their new data is conclusive.

First, it's much bigger than NASA's previous estimation. According to the new images, this rocky beast has a diamater of 1,066 foot (325 meters), with a margin of error of ±49 feet (±15 meters). According to team leader Thomas Müller of the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics in Garching, Germany, "the 20% increase in diameter, from 270 to 325 m, translates into a 75% increase in our estimates of the asteroid's volume or mass."

What that means is if it hits Earth, its destructive power will be much higher than what scientists originally expected. Based on previous data, NASA estimated an impact of 510 megatons for Apophis. That's more than two times the energy released by the Krakatoa eruption of 1883, an event that changed Earth's global climate for five years.

Apophis is still small enough not to kill us all, but it can disrupt life on the planet for a few decades

http://gizmodo.com/5974708/apophis-may-destroy-earth-satellites-in-2029

3D Simulation of 500,000 asteroids (scary):
http://www.asterank.com/3d/

[Newfie]

I skimmed through the report, mostly doing the Playboy routine, looking at oics and ignoring the words. Im a visual kinda guy!

But in this case you are looking more closely at the "data." Which appears to be a lot of opinions by "experts." But lets just assume they have an idea of wha they speak.

I noted two interesting things.

First, the trajectory and speed of which they expected things to get worse. This was almost universally bad. The graphs basically say "we expect things to get worse faster". If you extrapolate a very few years the things are almost sure to collapse. A very pessimistic view.

Second, when you tease out to just the experts in their field, then they expect things to be worse than the whole crowd. This was especially noticeable in the ENVIROMENTAL area.

Thus, despite the moderately roomy tone, it seems the underlying message is considerably darker.

[Whitefang]

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/t ... s_01092013

prepping for famine caused by drought?

If there were ever a sign that something is amiss, this may very well be it.

United Nations agricultural experts are reporting confusion, after figures show that China imported 2.6 million tons of rice in 2012, substantially more than a four-fold increase over the 575,000 tons imported in 2011.

The confusion stems from the fact that there is no obvious reason for vastly increased imports, since there has been no rice shortage in China. The speculation is that Chinese importers are taking advantage of low international prices, but all that means is that China’s own vast supplies of domestically grown rice are being stockpiled.

Why would China suddenly be stockpiling millions of tons of rice for no apparent reason?

Perhaps it’s related to China’s aggressive military buildup and war preparations in the Pacific and in central Asia.

If a 400% year-over-year increase in rice stockpiles isn’t enough to convince you the Chinese are preparing for a significant near-term event, consider that in Australia the country’s two major baby formula distributors have reported they are unable to keep up with demand for their dry milk formula products. Grocery stores throughout the country have been left empty of the essential infant staple as a result of bulk exports by the Chinese.

[SeaGypsy]

Obviously you are out of touch with the development of understanding of El-Nino & La- Nina cycles.

We are in the Pacific west, coming out of a 4 year El- Nino, approaching La- Nino. What this means is the flood cycle seen recently in China and Australia will quickly turn to drought. A serious drought in both of these countries will put the USA in control of most grain prices besides rice, while the few countries capable of exporting rice cannot make up for a serious shortfall in China.

The biggest threat to China is food security. The potential for a food emergency at a scale dwarfing any in history is real and quite likely imminent. Buying rice is a stop gap, but doubtful there is enough excess to put away for a prolonged drought.

What could happen in and around China in such times? Massive internal strife, potential territorial expansion (invasion of neighboring countries), explosion or implosion.

I would rate drought and famine in China as the most immediate threat. 2.6 million tons sounds a lot. 2.6 billion kilograms. 2 kilos per person. A week or 2 worth normally, A month or 2 stretching it.

[Keith_McClary]

NASA Sees Fields of Green Spring up in Saudi Arabia

Because rainfall in this area is now only a few centimeters (about one inch) each year, water here is a non-renewable resource. Although no one knows how much water is beneath the desert, hydrologists estimate it will only be economical to pump water for about 50 years.

Looks like some of the 2000 green areas have already been urbanized.

where the area photographed is located

[AgentR11]

Why would China suddenly be stockpiling millions of tons of rice for no apparent reason?
Perhaps it’s related to China’s aggressive military buildup and war preparations in the Pacific and in central Asia.

I think the Chinese are expecting the climate thing to go from theoretical to real for them quite soon; particularly water flowing from them, to India. Both high population, nuclear powers, and both are going to want to keep that next cup of water.

You want to talk an unmitigatable motivator for war to the point of unconditional surrender or annihilation... water is at the top of that list. I wouldn't expect this to go hot this year, expect a lot more stockpiling, and not just of grains. But we are definitely going past the theoretical speculation point on this one.

[Plantagenet]

How very curious that Peak Oil hasn't been mentioned yet.

The global economic crisis, the recessions in the EU, and the income inequality problems are all related to lack of GDP growth, which in turn are due to high energy costs triggered by PEAK OIL.