In 1885, the US Geological Survey announced that there was “little or no chance” of oil being discovered in California. In 1891, it said the same thing about Kansas and Texas.
In 1939 the US Department of the Interior said that American oil supplies would last only another 13 years.
In 1949 the Secretary of the Interior announced that the end of US oil was in sight.
http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/01/great-moments-in-failed-predictions/
The Limits to Growth (1972) – projected the world would run out of gold by 1981, mercury and silver by 1985, tin by 1987, zinc by 1990, petroleum by 1992, and copper, lead and natural gas by 1993. It also stated that the world had only 33-49 years of aluminum resources left, which means we should run out sometime between 2005-2021. (See Donella Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth New American Library, 1972.
http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/01/great-moments-in-failed-predictions/
Ibon wrote:The media will follow, never lead. Peak Oil will be embraced when liquid fuel constraints are no longer even debated.
Econ101 wrote:Right now there is no evidence beyond speculation there will ever be any liquid fuel constraints although the media will often say something contrary. Are they leading or following?
Claim: In 1974, the US Geological Survey announced “at 1974 technology and 1974 price” the US had only a 10-year supply of natural gas.
Natural gas production is 3-4 times what it was in 1974 and by some estimates we have several thousands of yrs supply remaining, at current use levels.
Claim: In 1952 the US President’s Materials Policy Commission concluded that by the mid-1970s copper production in the US could not exceed 800,000 tons and that lead production would be at most 300,000 tons per year.
Data: But copper production in 1973 was 1.6 million tons, and by 1974 lead production had reached 614,000 tons – 100% higher than predicted.
In 1865, Stanley Jevons (one of the most recognized 19th century economists) predicted that England would run out of coal by 1900, and that England’s factories would grind to a standstill.
The Limits to Growth (1972) – projected the world would run out of gold by 1981, mercury and silver by 1985, tin by 1987, zinc by 1990, petroleum by 1992, and copper, lead and natural gas by 1993. It also stated that the world had only 33-49 years of aluminum resources left, which means we should run out sometime between 2005-2021. (See Donella Meadows et al., The LiThe Limits to Growth (1972) – projected the world would run out of gold by 1981, mercury and silver by 1985, tin by 1987, zinc by 1990, petroleum by 1992, and copper, lead and natural gas by 1993. It also stated that the world had only 33-49 years of aluminum resources left, which means we should run out sometime between 2005-2021. (See Donella Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New York: New American Library, 1972. mits to Growthary, 1972.
mmasters wrote:Will the media ever fully embrace peak oil?
Econ101 wrote:I think it has been in the news for some time and even though they have been continually burned on the issue they keep trying:In 1885, the US Geological Survey announced that there was “little or no chance” of oil being discovered in California. In 1891, it said the same thing about Kansas and Texas.
In 1939 the US Department of the Interior said that American oil supplies would last only another 13 years.
In 1949 the Secretary of the Interior announced that the end of US oil was in sight.
http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/01/great-moments-in-failed-predictions/
[/quote]Econ101 wrote:But, peak oil has evolved. It no longer means running out but changes with each new discovery and price fluctuation. Last I heard peak oil now means high prices or something and global warming is now climate change or something and Al Gore, selling convenient untruths, is now richer than Mitt Romney!
Econ101 wrote:Right now there is no evidence beyond speculation there will ever be any liquid fuel constraints although the media will often say something contrary. Are they leading or following?
SamInNebraska wrote:mmasters wrote:Will the media ever fully embrace peak oil?
What do you mean? It was front page news back in 2005, seems like a pretty decent "embrace" to me?
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/in ... usat_x.htm
mmasters wrote:Will the media ever fully embrace peak oil?...
I mean embrace it as a crisis and give it at least somewhat the status it deserves rather than just a cover story.
Plantagenet wrote:mmasters wrote:Will the media ever fully embrace peak oil?...
I mean embrace it as a crisis and give it at least somewhat the status it deserves rather than just a cover story.
Not bloody likely.
The MSM isn't going to run stories on peak oil and oil production decline now that oil production has stopped declining and instead is going up in the USA.
The MSM news stories instead are going to be all about frakking and politicians promising energy independence and oil production going up in the USA and all the jobs being created in North Dakota and stuff like that, because that is what is happening right now.
Maybe someday ten years from now the MSM will cover peak oil, when oil production in the USA reverses again and heads back down, but I wouldn't look for it to happen any time soon unless Ghawar production suddenly falls rapidly or something else like that happens.
Plantagenet wrote:Maybe someday ten years from now the MSM will cover peak oil, when oil production in the USA reverses again and heads back down, but I wouldn't look for it to happen any time soon unless Ghawar production suddenly falls rapidly or something else like that happens.
mmasters wrote:SamInNebraska wrote:mmasters wrote:Will the media ever fully embrace peak oil?
What do you mean? It was front page news back in 2005, seems like a pretty decent "embrace" to me?
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/in ... usat_x.htm
I mean embrace it as a crisis and give it at least somewhat the status it deserves rather than just a cover story.
SamInNebraska wrote:...it also needs to be a crisis which slaps a soccer mom right in the face and says, "no bitch, no fuel for your fat American ass in your monster truck to haul your 70# kid to practice because you thought it would be cool to enter him in a league the next town over", now THAT would cause some ruckus!
Beery1 wrote:SamInNebraska wrote:...it also needs to be a crisis which slaps a soccer mom right in the face and says, "no bitch, no fuel for your fat American ass in your monster truck to haul your 70# kid to practice because you thought it would be cool to enter him in a league the next town over", now THAT would cause some ruckus!
I'm hoping it will make a lot of Americans lose their fat asses, due to having to find ways to work and to shop that don't involve sitting on those fat asses in that monster truck.
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