[mmasters]

When is peak oil going to hit hard, when do the production declines outstrip demand? When will the ever esculating gas prices begin.

[Corella]

There are many spots where it does already. Processes are overlapping each other so it is always difficult to name exact causes. However, it s not only about Africa and spots in Asia, Alberta too is hit hard already. Many people may notice later...
Else: who says gas price will go up? If we happen a next foam-burst of all the bubbles it can go down, nevertheless few can afford.

[Ayoob]

The day or the hour is not important. What is of the greatest importance is that it WILL hit, and you will still be alive. The most important thing to any individual is how you cope with that time.

In my opinion, probably repeated a hundred times here in my posts, is to figure the halving time of whatever resource you think will impact you the most.

Take the year over year decline rate measured by percentage, and divide that number into 70 or 72. Albert Bartlett uses 70, Morgan Stanley uses 72. I'm not sure this will meaningfully impact the debate.

For example, let's say the year over year decline rate is 2%. Divide 70 by 2, and you come up with 35. In 35 years, the daily supply will be half of what it is from your peak point. If you are still alive in 35 years, the total available supply will be cut in half.

If it is 5%, then the time is 14 years. If it is 7%, then the time is ten years.

The biggest loss is the first halving time. For all the rest of humanity, we will not lose more than we will in the first halving time. In the second halving time, we will only lose half of what we lost in the first halving time. Does that make sense?

Let's say that the total global oil output today is 80 million barrels per day. At the end of the first halving time, we will have 40 million barrels available. A loss of 40 million barrels per day. At the end of the second halving time we will lose 20 million barrels per day. Much less loss than the first, but as a group we used to use 80 million barrels. From 80 we are down to 20.

In my personal opinion, humanity will simply not function the same after the 2nd halving time. We will have lost 75% of all the daily production we had at the peak.

At 2% decline, that would be in about 70 years. At 5%, that will be 28 years. At 7%, that would be 20 years. I assume I will be alive 20 years from now so this calculation means something to me. Some prognosticators have said we could be looking at a 6% decline rate.

In America, natural gas seems to have gained ground. Converting a car to run on propane or natural gas is about a $1000 investment, and propane or natural gas used as fuel would cut my per-gallon price by roughly 50% if not more. If I went with natural gas, I would have to install a natural gas station at my home at a cost of roughly $10K. That includes purchase price, installation, conversion of my vehicle, and probably some contracting work on my house. I COULD do it if it was cost effective. On the other hand, you can buy a lot of gasoline for $10K. I could buy diesel vehicles and cook up biodiesel at home if it was cost-effective. I just have a hard time figuring that nobody else is going to contact their local Chinese restaurant for their waste vegetable oil. Why wouldn't the restaurant owner just set up a biodiesel station at the restaurant to fuel his own vehicles? His dishwasher is a cheap and available source of labor, have him do it.

So, what is the smartest choice for ME for coping with the reduced availability of gasoline? Would Costco shut down due to the increased cost of shipping? Would my city go bankrupt dealing with the high price of fuel for police cruisers? Many questions are raised when considering all the possibilities and potential solutions.

In my mind the most important thing is to figure out how to personally navigate the situation as it impacts you.

Consider the idea that you are looking for a specific moment in time where suddenly all of this happens at once. I don't think it's going to unfold that way. A year goes by and things get tougher. Another year goes by and things are relatively stable. Another year goes by, and people have become more resourceful... but things get tougher anyway. Another year goes by... and then another year goes by.

[Beery1]

Ayoob is right, I think. But we also have to factor in a big stock market crash when the decline becomes obvious, and I think that will come well before the first halving time.

[Tanada]

The day or the hour is not important. What is of the greatest importance is that it WILL hit, and you will still be alive. The most important thing to any individual is how you cope with that time.

In my opinion, probably repeated a hundred times here in my posts, is to figure the halving time of whatever resource you think will impact you the most.

Take the year over year decline rate measured by percentage, and divide that number into 70 or 72. Albert Bartlett uses 70, Morgan Stanley uses 72. I'm not sure this will meaningfully impact the debate.

For example, let's say the year over year decline rate is 2%. Divide 70 by 2, and you come up with 35. In 35 years, the daily supply will be half of what it is from your peak point. If you are still alive in 35 years, the total available supply will be cut in half.

If it is 5%, then the time is 14 years. If it is 7%, then the time is ten years.

The biggest loss is the first halving time. For all the rest of humanity, we will not lose more than we will in the first halving time. In the second halving time, we will only lose half of what we lost in the first halving time. Does that make sense?

Let's say that the total global oil output today is 80 million barrels per day. At the end of the first halving time, we will have 40 million barrels available. A loss of 40 million barrels per day. At the end of the second halving time we will lose 20 million barrels per day. Much less loss than the first, but as a group we used to use 80 million barrels. From 80 we are down to 20.

In my personal opinion, humanity will simply not function the same after the 2nd halving time. We will have lost 75% of all the daily production we had at the peak.

At 2% decline, that would be in about 70 years. At 5%, that will be 28 years. At 7%, that would be 20 years. I assume I will be alive 20 years from now so this calculation means something to me. Some prognosticators have said we could be looking at a 6% decline rate.

I personally do not believe it will work out that way, IMO Peak Oil is the Fork in the road of civilization. Either we will find a workable set of substitute energy sources, or we will collapse back to a simpler level of energy exploitation. Petroleum is a key cornerstone of our so called civilization, take it away without effective substitution and our civilization will crumble. Build in the substitutions and something like our current level of technology can be sustained for a while, but BAU can not be sustained in the sense that endless growth can exist on a finite resource base. We can't monocrop farm enough land sustainably to support our current population, let alone future growth. Permaculture farming could sustainably feed us all, but that model is at odds with the current monocrop annual system now in place, and switching can not be done instantly.

[Shaved Monkey]

Where's the its already hit hard option?

good doco on the poverty in the US tonight on TV in Australia
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/ ... 684714.htm

[noobtube]

Only the clueless, overfed, entitled, SUV-driving, suburban-living, police-loving, hate mongering, mall buying American believes Peak Oil isn't already hitting hard.

Look at the Rust Belt. What is that?

Look at the rampant poverty. What is that?

Look at the crashed property values in cities all across the country. What is that?

Look at the collapsed financial industry that needs perpetual bailouts to continue. What is that?

Look at the always-war mentality of the United States Federal government. What is that?

When will it hit hard? I guess for most people, that will be the day when they can't stuff their faces with Big Macs, Burritos, and Beer.

[Fishman]

Noob (what a perfect name for this one) Your rant is hillarious
"Only the clueless, overfed, entitled, SUV-driving, suburban-living, police-loving, hate mongering, mall buying American believes Peak Oil isn't already hitting hard".(sounds like the rants of a racist, or perhaps an OWS washout )

Look at the Rust Belt. What is that? (Dem and union driven collapse)

Look at the rampant poverty. What is that? (Failed Keynesian economics, take a class other than 4th Century basket weaving)

"Look at the crashed property values in cities all across the country. What is that?" (When you give no income, no job or assets-ninjas folks loans you get this outcome)

"Look at the collapsed financial industry that needs perpetual bailouts to continue. What is that? "(So who keeps gving them bailouts?)

Get out of your mama's basement.

[noobtube]

Oh, I see, it's everybody's fault but yours.

As long as you get to keep your goodies and your belly is full, then you must have all the answers, and that means everyone else is the problem but you.

The fact you use the word racist when you do not know who I am, shows you are the typical self-entitled, the world-owes-me, self-proclaimed "success" that everyone is supposed to follow because you, of all the people in the world, have all the answers and know-it-all.

Yep, the United States does not have enough of those types.

It's funny how you pick and choose who is the problem instead of looking in the mirror.

And, people wonder why the United States is falling apart.

[Buddy_J]

And, people wonder why the United States is falling apart.

No they don't. Otherwise far more would notice peak oil effects and then be forced to do something about it.

[ian807]

How hard is hard? Prices went up after 2005.They'll never come down again to 2000 levels for any significant length of time.

Hard is event driven. Hard is when there start to be supply chain breakdowns in the "just-in-time" delivery system based on cheap, convenient petroleum based fuel. Since supply chains are interdependent, this may represent a "hard" hit.

Oil prices affect the price of everything else, including the price of finding, extracting, refining and distributing petroleum fuels. At some point, this results in a feedback loop (i.e. expensive petroleum itself makes petroleum more expensive). There will be price spikes, followed by prices crashes, again and again, until the system stabilized to a permanently high plateau. That is a predictable "hard" event.

In fact, it's not peak oil, per se that will set this into motion. It's the "net energy cliff" that we have to watch out for. Net energy from existing oil is declining and will continue to decline as more and more energy is needed to extract a barrel of refinable hydrocarbons. There seems to be very little information on this, and for good reason. Oil companies, obviously don't want to research information the might devalue their assets, reduce stock prices, discourage financing or reduce anyone's bonus. Few independent sources describe their methods of counting net energy. Still, it's not brain surgery to figure out that extracting tarry, sulfur laden goop from a deepwater well in the Orinoco basin is going to yield less net energy per barrel than a barrel of saudi light sweet crude.

The implication that the oil pumped prior to this point represent a much greater amount of real net energy then the remaining oil is certain too. We've been pumping in earnest for a century and a half. We won't have anything like that long on the second half.

[Rod_Cloutier]

I've said this before and I'll say it again; There are different approaches to dealing with peak oil. One of which is to reduce the population through warfare and keep the spoils to yourself.

I can see the 'elites' gaming the rest of us, essentially forever, to ensure they get to continue with business as usual; with no changes or adaptations of THEIR lifestyle or wealth. They'll force the rest of us into slavery or worse to get their way.

How long would the remaining fossil fuel, metals, lumber, fish, food and other stuff last if they wiped the rest of us out? (Quite a long time) This is what their aiming for. A new fudalism; a perpetual wealthy elite and everyone else who survives the crash reduced to being surfs, or slaves; with no hope of progress or improvement of their lot.

How the poor deal with peak oil is known- poverty, hunger, illness and death. How the rich deal with peak oil is to take the poor's supplies away from them to keep for themselves.

(Expect social revolts or revolution on the road down)

[ian807]

I've said this before and I'll say it again; There are different approaches to dealing with peak oil. One of which is to reduce the population through warfare and keep the spoils to yourself.

I can see the 'elites' gaming the rest of us... A new fudalism; a perpetual wealthy elite and everyone else who survives the crash reduced to being surfs, or slaves; with no hope of progress or improvement of their lot.

I'm skeptical of this scenario for a number of reasons. When Mayan civilization collapsed due to climate change and lack of water, it was the elites that died off, not the common people, who simply picked up and moved. When hydrocarbon wealth is gone, it's not Joe Farmer with his Amish farming guide who disappears. I think it's the guy whose idea of scarcity is to drive last year's Maserati. At a certain point, Maserati guy's money is worthless and I tell him to push off.

In a more high tech scenario, the elite's wait until there are enough artificially intelligent robots that are advanced enough to service them adequately. This changes everything (if you can keep the robots powered). After that, babies are either gene engineered to be strong, smart and beautiful (i.e. elite material), or laws are passed to eliminate unlicensed reproduction, or both. For this, we need to maintain some level of technology and sufficient energy. A plague might be useful for this. It worked in the middle ages, after all.

If neither of the aforementioned strategies works, well, war is always useful for thinning the herd, and they still go willingly. You can be sure no Rothschild, Astor, Vanderbilt, or Rockefellers will be fighting directly.

[Plantagenet]

Peak oil is already hitting hard--look at the collapse in 2008 and the slow growth since then.

As to when it will hit REALLY hard, I'd give it a few more years. The impact so far in the USA has been mitigated by the fact that the economy has slowed to a crawl, reducing oil demand. However, any acceleration in GDP growth is going to increase oil demand and cause prices to go up to the point that the economy gets hard again.

We'll be on a gradual downward spiral for a few more years at least.

[basil_hayden]

I bet there's a lot of $200 oil; in 30 years, tertiary recovery methods ($200) support fracking methods ($100), that in turn supported conventional ($10) recovery methods.

Then we'll have to worry, IMHO, and we still won't be ready; even after the 2008 dress rehearsal.

[monsta666]

I cannot be sure what the OP meant to say but here is my take: when the OP said when peak oil hits "hard" I took this to mean the time when the MSM and world governments can no longer deny the existence of peak oil. As hard as things are now the prevailing view in the media is this is a bad financial crisis caused by excessive and irresponsible debt accumulation. The price of oil and it being the chief source of our growth problems has not really entered the conciousness of the public.

High prices maybe acknowledged but the main reason people think oil prices are high is because of speculators and bankers gaming the system. Absolute scarcity is foreign to most people and the general consensus by the public, media and government is that this an issue of relative scarcity. That is the scarcity of oil comes not because we are "running out" of oil but rather we are not allocating and distributing this resource efficiently enough. If Obama (or insert corporation or other government) follows the right policies and allows the markets to work as they should then a solution will be found. This is the prevailing wisdom of people today, just ask people why oil prices are so high and I am confident you will get the reasons I described above.

As for when peak oil would hit "hard" and make public opinion change, I figure this will come around 2-3 years after the world leaves the undulating plateau of world crude oil production. It should be noted that the time taken for world economy to react to plateauing oil was three years so I suppose it is reasonable to assume that it will take a similar amount of time for the economy to react to declining oil production. Once that happens I will figure there will be a financial crisis but worse than 2008 because the state of the world economy will be much poorer by the time the next financial crisis hits.

Saying all that, it is possible that even then people will not see peak oil as the chief source of the problem and it will be seen as yet another problem related to finance. As for the symptoms of it hitting hard just look at Greece and imagine this scenario in the country you live in. Once people are struggling to heat their homes people will lose trust in the US government if it is still reporting GDP growth. Once this trust is broken we are likely to get social/political unrest. Social/political unrest and financial problems, if great enough, is likely to influence future oil production. I would submit that oil production will not follow the Hubbert curve on the downward section. Oil production does not operate in a vacuum and is connected to the economy, political and social systems we live in. If those systems are in turmoil and going into various degrees of meltdown then production of oil will be adversely effected.

[Corella]

Supply chain can be interrupted just by insurance companies not trusting debtors organizing shippings - threat of system break down over just one night. We could observe it in 2008 already and have been very lucky some hero-politicians could stop the tsunami so far. If this happens again, causes are not just expensive energy or commies or....! One of a hundred causes is damage competition. To get out of dilemma, international sustainability standards are needed and a restructuring of the energy-sector. If the Middle-Europe-region is not supported in efforts of restructuring, instead competed badly by a short fracking bubble, we will find all ourselves hit hard, no matter Dems or Tea-Pats ruled that!

[Econ101]

Peak Oil is a political tool not a fact. Once that is understood the question of when peak oil hits hard is one of politics and policy.

The federal government has been working hard by not allowing federally controlled resources to be developed. They are also doubling down on harassing production efforts where they lack legal control of the resources.

As our government takes more of your wealth it's always handy to have an oil company or two to blaim and a little scare talk on depletion and news stories about climate change on hot days always helps a little too!

[Econ101]

When is peak oil going to hit hard, when do the production declines outstrip demand? When will the ever esculating gas prices begin.

Demand and supply have and will stay in balance. Is oil the only thing going up in dollar price? Does gasoline still cost 25 cents a gallon? Price is relative. If I use a 1964 silver quarter gas is still 25 cents/gallon. I know because the coin is legal tender and says 25 cents right on it. If I use a dollar bill it take almost 4 of them. Tell me just exactly what has changed?

[ralfy]

Demand has been outstripping conventional production since 2005:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailycha ... onsumption