[Ibon]

We analyze the tangible physical data and sift through the ramifications with varied predictions. What about the intangibles? For those of us several decades alive with memories back 40 years or more are there echoes from the past that at times remind us of how we perceived ourselves, our species, our prospects, our will to adapt and rise above the warnings of the tangible dangers already understood back then.

I can remember a time when I believed we would through collective will make the intelligent decisions a few minutes before midnight to avoid what to me back then seemed obvious collective suicide.

Today I am a member of the current cynical collective, short sighted like mice, myopic in focussing on how to best cope on a ship that is no longer guided by rational self preservation.

But I do remember a different more noble sentiment that is an intangible cultural meme that we have lost, replaced by a more cynical perspective, one that will surely accuse these very musings of being those of a delusional nature.

But I do protest and feel certain that these noble sentiments, however scoffed, are not yet totally extinguished. For they touch on the deepest of human spiritual sentiments, and will one day rise from the ashes.

[Plantagenet]

Most cynics are really crushed romantics: they've been hurt, they're sensitive, and their cynicism is a shell that's protecting this tiny, dear part in them that's still alive.

--Jeff Bridges

[Rod_Cloutier]

I don't know; but things seem vastly different when I look back on my childhood in the 1970's. The older generation, although more bigoted, religious, and strict, they had a maturity that people today no longer have.

In my teen years in the 80's; there was a Twisted sister song called 'Rock and roll will never die'. However it did die; nothing remarkable has come out since at least 1995, going on two decades now. Rap, hip-hop, new age; I don't like them, never have, never will.

In the 1990's I was starting out on a career in the trucking industry; I got married, started a family, got the two kids and the dog, bought my first car then a house; everything looking up. Lost my job at the end of 2008, and went through a bankrupcy in 2009. Economically its never been the same for me since, my expectations changed.

In this last decade I became aware of impending peak oil, catastrophic climate change, ecological collapse, ect... So I've adjusted my expectations down even further. Three weeks ago I saw this lecture on youtube that is predicting global human extinction by 2050. (I've been depressed for weeks since seeing it). Intangible change is here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ina16XSJQvM

The news sprials out of any sense of coherence, and the 'reality' I believed in growing up has been shattered. Stuff so bizzarre, but true; you just can't make this stuff up:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7qliVpGEk0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrUVLpFa ... r_embedded

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HP7L8bw5 ... r_embedded

Looking forward to the next, 10, 20, 30 years of life cautiously. Who really knows what will happen? Hope only for the afterlife:

(Excellent 10 part series) : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XgF_iwUNqFU

[Pops]

I was a teen from '67-'77, so that's race riots, assassinations and Tet on one end and Carter's peak oil speech on the other:

The energy crisis has not yet overwhelmed us, but it will if we do not act quickly.
It is a problem we will not solve in the next few years, and it is likely to get progressively worse through the rest of this century.

On one end, personal sacrifice, on the other only a sacrifice of comfort and habit. But Carter's inconvenient message was so derided even Carter himself discarded it in favor of an idea more American:

Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.

God is on our side, he wants us to drive a 500cid Eldorado, if you don't believe it just try and stop us. Like Toby Keith sang after the outgrowth of the Carter doctrine bloomed: we'll put a boot up your ass, it's the American way.


Perhaps there was a greater willingness to sacrifice "for the greater good" sometime back when, Carter thought so for a while anyway. Those still under by Jim Crow's thumb who'd not been able to vote, let alone benefit from the post war boom got some help from the college kids whose parent's had benefited and they changed a lot of things. Carter thought that meant we'd all pitch in "to put up with inconveniences and to make sacrifices" in the name of "planning for the future".

Of course he was way wrong because all we wanted was to get our piece, Carter figured that out way too late.


It would be comforting to imagine we could sacrifice today for tomorrow, or mine for ours but it would only be imagining.

.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperie ... er-energy/

[PrestonSturges]

When JFK, RFK, and MLK were assassinated in short order, it became clear that nobody was untouchable if they rocked the status quo. I guess we always knew that, but sort of felt that it would not happen on television. Then Vietnam impressed on us that even pointlessness wars dragged on forever and that our side committed massacres. And Kent State showed that even casual protest could be get you killed, and that there were people in the US who cheered the killers. The Oil Crisis showed our lifestyle of perpetual growth and happy motoring was an illusion. Reagan was just the same shit sandwich in a new wrapper as the US supported our our enemies and trained death squads that killed nuns. The idea that Ruby Ridge was a wake-up call for the right wing survivalists is rather amusing since they probably cheered Kent State, and they about had a stroke because Clinton was the president who finally got caught fooling around. Then Bush let New Orleans drown while the cops (now in prison) went on a killing spree and tried to claim people were shooting at Coast Guard helicopters. And then Dubya lied us into a war that killed hundreds of thousands. And the financial system collapsed largely because of fraud while wingnuts try to blame lazy negros. Fast forward to today where the GOP's game plan is to drive the country into a Depression, because hey, it worked for the National Socialists. And the ammo shelves at Wal-Mart are stripped bare because the goobers literally believe we are about to have race war. And every week you can watch a new video of the cops beating to death someone with Downs Syndrome or diabetes.

[PrestonSturges]

BTW - An "intangible" change would not be "perceptible."

[kuidaskassikaeb]

The funny thing for me is that kids today seem much more together than we were. I think the early seventies were the much worse for drugs sex and other fun stuff. We were when society hit bottom. And even when you think about the possible destruction of civilization: nuclear war was never more than 30 minutes away. Crime was way worse and so were a lot of types of pollution.

But for the society things seem so much worse now. Things like resource depletion and global warming don't seem avoidable just something to endure.

[Ibon]

BTW - An "intangible" change would not be "perceptible."

Intangible is often used in a figuritive sense about something that can not be quantified or measured. In this sense the way a culture changes is an intangible. Or something like love or friendship. Although they are not measureable they can have a huge impact on perception.

[Ibon]

It would be comforting to imagine we could sacrifice today for tomorrow, or mine for ours but it would only be imagining.

It is delusional or just an act of imagining to believe that mankind will hold the healing of the biosphere (our ultimate commons) to a level of importance that it supercedes the myopic needs of maintaining the status quo.

So where does one park these noble sentiments? Do we simply lock them away in a nostalgic cupboard of distant childhood memories and surrender to the collective cynicism?

This is not just an academic musing on my part. The cynicism we see today is an intangible that acts as a self fulfilling prophecy of hopelessness.

The ecological consequences of overshoot will at some point break down the cynicism and greatly impact the collective will.

I would argue that this intangible collective cynicism is acting as a far greater limit than the actual physical resource constraints.

[Cloud9]

Necessity is the mother of invention. Abundance is the father of complacency.
Change will not happen until it is forced upon us. The slow bleed we are experiencing can go on for a long time. Look how long it took for Detroit to abandon its dreams of recovery. Dreams of a new age persisted while their heavy industry was being sold for scrap and a scavenger culture was pillaging their infrastructure. Yet, the cargo cult continued with new strip malls being put up and demands being made for more infrastructure expansion.

Even now, we hear that this or that invention will return us to the good old days of cheap abundant energy. We are told that fracking will save us and that a new age of natural gas is upon us. We are assured that green shoots are everywhere while real incomes continue to go down. No one sits down and does the math on what it would take to scale up these projects to power the country to levels we were enjoying in 2005.

We are in the age of contraction. We have been since the seventies. Dot com bubbles and housing bubbles are not examples of sustainable organic growth. They are a product of malinvestment brought on by fiat money expansion. The last big bubble being blown is the exponential growth of central governments worldwide. That bubble will burst as well. When it does, the pain and suffering on the local level will reach the breaking point. When that happens, we will find local solutions to our problems.

[Pops]

The cynicism we see today is an intangible that acts as a self fulfilling prophecy of hopelessness.

A majority of humans believe in a god made in their image that condones every belief and act of their particular sect, that's why he was invented. Every time I saw Tim Tebow take a knee I just laughed, he thanked the god of Tebow who obviously hated and spited all tebow's foes - depending of course who paid tebow's salary at that moment.

The change has been in the beginnings of understanding that we aren't the central characters in the universe and the traditions of millennia are merely self-serving fairy tales told by authoritarian magicians. We don't have dominion, we aren't apart, we weren't made separate with gods own breath and given naming rights to all the stadiums animals..

We are a part, a piece of the whole, dependent on nature, not separate and above it. It's hard to come to terms with our place in the natural world once we are unmoored from the belief we'd been given dominion by the creator.

Sorry of that comes across as bashing christianity in particular, I just don't know any buzzwords from other traditions.

The ecological consequences of overshoot will at some point break down the cynicism and greatly impact the collective will.

Yes I agree, Cloud puts it well.

We will either come to worship another god, one made in the image of the world that sustains us or we'll continue with the old god that blesses our own sect's every selfish act right up to the end

I would argue that this intangible collective cynicism is acting as a far greater limit than the actual physical resource constraints.

I think cynicism is the path forward through resource constraints.

In the ancient meaning, cynicism is distrust of convention and religion, rejection of the status quo and living a simple and moral life. Only in modern times have authoritarians in religion and greater society made the meaning negative by convincing the gullible that individuals are inherently immoral with no ability to distinguish right from wrong without the guidance of a human/god intermediary ...
who by the way, needs you to support them.


.

[Cloud9]

Pops, it would be a mistake to dismiss the real power that a belief in God bestows on a people. For me at least, God is the uncaused cause. I suspect the rest we purport to know about him is the result of our own imaginings. It is interesting to me how mathematicians I know tend to embrace the concept of a grand architect, while my friends who are biologists see no grand design. From my experience, to expect God to intervene in our own behalf is the epitome of hubris. Having said that, miracles do happen but in the end everybody dies. Still, the benefits of a common belief system should not be dismissed. If you look at the success of the Jews or the Mormons it is clear that a belief in God gave them a survival advantage over other groups. Theocracies were after all the first form of government.

When I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I find myself whispering a small prayer. That prayer tends to calm my nerves. That is a survival advantage that should not be negated.

[Ibon]

I think cynicism is the path forward through resource constraints.

In the ancient meaning, cynicism is distrust of convention and religion, rejection of the status quo and living a simple and moral life. Only in modern times have authoritarians in religion and greater society made the meaning negative by convincing the gullible that individuals are inherently immoral with no ability to distinguish right from wrong without the guidance of a human/god intermediary ...
who by the way, needs you to support them.

It would appear so. If you think of the institutional pillars that underpin our modern culture, there is distrust and cynicism toward all of them; religious institutions, our economic institutions, our government institutions.

I remember attending a peak oil conference years ago when Richard Heinberg gave a talk and there was a comment he made that is related to this line of thought. Paraphrasing somewhat he said that the greatest cultural revolutions happens when the ecologicial underpinnings that hold up a culture become undermined.

You have to be cautious when you assume that a major inflection point of our culture is going to happen coincidentally during your own lifetime. But I do suspect that we are approaching on a global scale a very monumental inflection point that has the potential to revolutionize these institutional pillars for reasons stated by Heinberg. Probably drawn out beyond our lifetimes like Cloud mentioned. If you want to revolutionize our economic system, our form of government, our religious institutions, and you want to find a common denominator that will address all at once, then my friends, the consequences of overshoot do offer up the single greatest catalyst and driver going forward.

Paradoxically, if we want to be drawn back to the source that nourished our modern civilization then yes, consequences of overshoot are the paving stones that will do just that.

It is overwhelming to contemplate how our delusions are about to be illuminated through these consequences. I don't say this with even a trace of vengence even as I welcome the suffering that will come. Having said that I am most fearful how this will affect my own progeny and loved ones.

This topic is just too hard for the vast majority of humanity to look directly into. It is so very frightening.

[Ibon]

Still, the benefits of a common belief system should not be dismissed. If you look at the success of the Jews or the Mormons it is clear that a belief in God gave them a survival advantage over other groups. Theocracies were after all the first form of government. When I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I find myself whispering a small prayer. That prayer tends to calm my nerves. That is a survival advantage that should not be negated.

I cannot help but wonder if the "biblical" nature of the upcoming consequences are not the very foundations of an emerging common belief system that will revolutionize our deepest spiritual sentiments. One that will embed with social tabus such commandments that prohibit breeding and consuming beyond our carrying capacity. I am not cynical about this possibility when I contemplate the survivors on the other side of the bottleneck, in a fashion like the Planet of Apes movie, when they will stare in wonder at the ruins of the statue of liberty.

The ultimate mother, our holy mother earth, will retain her sacred place. That thought can guide me like a prayer to calm my nerves.

[Pops]

Pops, it would be a mistake to dismiss the real power that a belief in God bestows on a people.

Yes, you're exactly right. I was raised in the baptist tradition and know very well the power in believing oneself to be of the chosen. Faith has fed every army, for who would fight believing god was rooting for the other side?

That absolutism bleeds over into all realms. How could it be otherwise? If to have true faith, I must truly believe I know that my god is the one true god, so all faiths unlike mine are, by definition, at least misguided if not downright evil. And woe to those who do not at least profess belief. If all that is true then it follows that I'd be more inclined to believe my opinions in every matter are always correct.

That, to make a gross generalization, is why I find the most religious people are also the most outspokenly black and white in their views, all their views. There is simply no room in their belief system for grays because to equivocate in one thing is to equivocate in all things: You're either with me or you're against me.

Thaaat brings me around to my earlier notion. We'll need to cast off the badge of "god's chosen strawboss – just a rung below the creator himself" and revert/revise our beliefs so we stand as part of the natural world instead of above. That idea seems completely compatible with with a creation story. Considering that selective reading of scripture has always been a part of religion the only thing standing in the way of that interpretation is sufficient social upheaval.

[Pops]

You have to be cautious when you assume that a major inflection point of our culture is going to happen coincidentally during your own lifetime. But I do suspect that we are approaching on a global scale a very monumental inflection point that has the potential to revolutionize these institutional pillars for reasons stated by Heinberg. Probably drawn out beyond our lifetimes like Cloud mentioned. If you want to revolutionize our economic system, our form of government, our religious institutions, and you want to find a common denominator that will address all at once, then my friends, the consequences of overshoot do offer up the single greatest catalyst and driver going forward.

I think that is right. We all want to feel like we are at the pivot of history, I'm sure that is the reason so many of us talk about the end of BAU and some fixate on overnight armageddon, or just plain old armageddon.

[Newfie]

Personally I don't think there is really all that much to it.

Humans, collectively, are not all that smart. Individually the experience is different, and there can be some really neat thoughts going on. But collectively, naw.

If you were an alien biologist humanity would be described how?

We are an eusocial mammal, eusocial being a critter that lives in large collectives, and competes gainst other collectives for biological advantage. Thus we have two personas, as a individual, and as a member of the collective. ALL of our highly praised human traits such as valor and self sacrifice are valued because they raise the collective over the individual. Thus we can be described pretty completely.

I don't see a lot of change in the rules, there are changes in the details, the swirls and eddies of current, but the river still runs to the sea.

Sorry if this is obtuse.

[Ibon]

Personally I don't think there is really all that much to it.

We are an eusocial mammal, eusocial being a critter that lives in large collectives, and competes gainst other collectives for biological advantage. Thus we have two personas, as a individual, and as a member of the collective.Thus we can be described pretty completely.

The collective part of the two persons has a tremendous impact on behavior. Think of cult members or religions. Think of the identity of generations. Societies at war. National identities. Football stadiums. A room full of people doing yoga. The audience in a rock concert. A subculture of folks contemplating doom. The Nazi movement. Followers of Gurus. A convention hall of scientists.

And we also have the super collective enabled by globalism and digital media that rises above all of the regioanal collectives. Again, although consequences of overshoot will be asymetric and not like a petri dish, issues like climate change do and will directly impact the super collective.

We ponder at times at the paralysis of protocols like Kyoto or Copenhagen around the subject of climate change. We do need to understand how consequences will influence the collective. We come to the simple conclusions that this paralysis is due to our innate greed or our dependency on ff infrastructure or the influence of corporations in our government etc.
I would like to challenge this and say that the current collective cynicism contributes hugely to this paralysis. A shift in the collective can shift priorities. We do not adequately understand this.

As simple as your description may be this collective is a powerful force like the schooling of fish and although this maybe innately human it is a field little understood and deserving of much more study as its force rivals the impact that an individual can have in his or her journey of self actualization.

To assume we are genetically incapable of acting collectively toward self preservation is paradoxically a point of view that comes from an intangible collective mind set.....that currently is deeply cynical.

[Newfie]

As simple as your description may be this collective is a powerful force like the schooling of fish and although this maybe innately human it is a field little understood and deserving of much more study as its force rivals the impact that an individual can have in his or her journey of self actualization.

To assume we are genetically incapable of acting collectively toward self preservation is paradoxically a point of view that comes from an intangible collective mind set.....that currently is deeply cynical.

I agree it is a powerful force, little understood. Hell, little recognized.

I also agree that I am very deeply cynical.


cyn·i·cal
/ˈsinikəl/
Adjective
Believing that people are motivated by self-interest; distrustful of human sincerity or integrity.
Doubtful as to whether something will happen or is worthwhile.
Synonyms
cynic - sardonic