[dinopello]

But, people can't agree as to the reason

As welcome as such changes have been, explanations for the nation’s plummeting homicide rate remain elusive, stymieing economists, criminologists, police, politicians and demographers. Have new police strategies made a difference, or have demographic shifts and population migrations steered the change? Could the reasons be as simple as putting more bad guys behind bars, or does credit go to changes made a generation ago, such as taking the lead out of gasoline or legalizing abortion?

[dolanbaker]

Much of it can be put down to the "Baby Boomers" growing too old to fight!

[Quinny]

They still kill a hell of a lot of people. Maybe they can't afford the ammo!

[dbruning]

Years ago I saw a report that mentioned violent criminals had an unusually high level of heavy metals in the brains.

I wouldn't think it possible since my personal opinion is things are becoming more polluted rather than less, but maybe less heavy metal is finding it's way brain-side?

And no, I'm not referring to the music genre

[dinopello]

Years ago I saw a report that mentioned violent criminals had an unusually high level of heavy metals in the brains.

I wouldn't think it possible since my personal opinion is things are becoming more polluted rather than less, but maybe less heavy metal is finding it's way brain-side?

Both could be correct. There may be less heavy metal pollution (the unleaded gasoline argument) but maybe more pollution from anti-depressants in the water.

[AdTheNad]

Someone should add "amount of pornography on the internet" onto that graph for an easy explanation.

[ralfy]

Other factors might include heavily armed military and police forces with formidable surveillance and prison systems, large amounts spent on government services, etc.

[careinke]

I'm going with the legalization of abortion. Unwanted kids don't usually make the best citizens. Abortions should be free to all, with a cash bonus for those who want to get sterilized at the same time. Vasectomies should also be subsidized. Having children should be taxed.

[Pops]

It continues to plummet from recent peaks at least. But it is nothing like as low as in the '50s. I agree with abortion and also cheap basic goods playing a part. One thing we don't have a lot of right now, at least from the historical perspective is racial violence and I suppose that has to do with the civil rights act. There was also a big shakeout of the dope industry back in the '80-90s. It's mainly a city-center enterprise and mergers and acquisitions in that industry are messy.

I was also thinking though, that young people today are not able to buy a home and maybe they don't want to, there is even a big new business of hourly car rental. Maybe that makes them less... invested maybe? Perhaps more susceptible to getting pissed and grabbing the pitchforks as economic inequality continues to increase?

Of course I found evidence to back up my idea... here is an interesting article,

To Peter Turchin, who studies population dynamics at the University of Connecticut in Storrs, the appearance of three peaks of political instability at roughly 50-year intervals is not a coincidence. For the past 15 years, Turchin has been taking the mathematical techniques that once allowed him to track predator–prey cycles in forest ecosystems, and applying them to human history. He has analysed historical records on economic activity, demographic trends and outbursts of violence in the United States, and has come to the conclusion that a new wave of internal strife is already on its way1. The peak should occur in about 2020, he says, and will probably be at least as high as the one in around 1970. “I hope it won't be as bad as 1870,” he adds.

[Pops]

I can't usually finish a post by JMG, he is even longer winded than me, but I did think it interesting that his timeline meshes with the one I just posted:

We’re in America’s fourth such interval. Like the ones that preceded it, it’s a time when the only issues that really matter are the ones that nobody in the nation’s public life is willing to talk about, and when increasingly desperate attempts to postpone the inevitable crisis a little longer have taken over the place of any less futile pursuit. How long the interval will last is a good question. The first such interval ran from the end of the Seven Years War in 1763 to the first shots at Lexington in 1775; the second, from the Compromise of 1850 to the bombardment of Fort Sumter in 1861; the third, the shortest to date, from the stock market crash of 1929 to the onset of the New Deal in 1933. How long this fourth interval will last is anyone’s guess at present; my sense, for what it’s worth, is that historians in the future will probably consider the crash of 2008 as its beginning, and I would be surprised to see it last out the present decade before crisis hits.

http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/ ... ahead.html

[copious.abundance]

Murders in U.S. Cities Reach Record Lows Again

The number of homicides in the United States’ biggest cities hit record lows again in 2013 as the murder rate nationally continued to drop to levels not seen since the 1960s.

According to year-end data released by police departments around the country, Chicago still leads the country in homicides with 415, but that number declined 18% from 2012 and is the fewest since 1965. Crime has been a problem in pockets of the city’s South Side and West Side neighborhoods for years. Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel hired a new superintendent of police soon after he was elected to shift the department’s strategy in an attempt to prevent future crimes. But while the murder rate declined to roughly 43 homicides per 100,000 residents (down from 50 in 2012), the number of murders in Chicago still outpaced every other major metropolis in the U.S.

New York had 333 murders in 2013, less than one a day, a record low and a much lower rate than Chicago at four homicides per 100,000 residents. In Detroit, the city had 332 murders, 54 fewer than the year before and the first time in three decades there have been fewer than 350 homicides in a year.

[PrestonSturges]

Well you would never guess this from listening to Fox News where every 10 minutes there's another story about How Black People Are Destroying America with a massive crime wave of ethnic violence.

I've had to set someone here straight on how there there isn't a huge crime wave, and that this imaginary crime wave isn't Obama's fault.

[Plantagenet]

Crime frequency is driven by demographics. As the huge mass of boomers age out and the population skews older the overall crime rate falls

There just aren't many 60 year old muggers, rapists, etc

[KaiserJeep]

I'm not a gun nut, I have not purchased a gun in 40+ years (I inherited some during that time). But I do know that across the USA, gun sales have steeply increased for decades, and reached a peak shortly after Obama's second election. State records of firearm ownership indicate on average that gun ownership has steadily increased in all 50 states, Puerto Rico, the Pacific Trust Territories, and the District of Columbia. In fact the number of guns surpassed the number of people in the USA just last year:



Meanwhile the number of American households voluntarily reporting gun ownership has been on a steady decline. As has the number of violent crimes. Meanwhile the number of mass shootings appears to be the same (or moderately declining or moderately increasing), it's hard to tell which.

Obviously, people are owning more guns and crime is declining. Obviously they don't want anyone to know that they have these guns. Arguably, more people unsuited by stability or temperament to be gun owners now have more access to guns owned by others.

I offer this as a topic for debate. I have no strong feelings about guns. They bear no special fascination and they are definitely not a hobby. I realize that such discussions sometimes get heated.

I suggest that the decline in violent crime mirrors the increase in gun ownership, just as the NRA says.

[PeakOiler]

Violent crime may be decreasing, but it certainly isn't gone. My sister-in-law's daughter was shot and killed the other night in Houston:
http://www.khou.com/news/local/ryan-burgs-arrested-fatal-shooting-at-northeast-Harris-County-home-238472971.html

I'll be attending the funeral on Tuesday.

[Tanada]

Condolences Peakoiler, truly a sad day.

In the wider debate I think a lot of the fall in violent crime has been the fall in teen aged population as a demographic effect. It is well known that young people raging with hormones and frustrated with life are more likely to turn to violence as a way of getting what they want. Crime statistics have shown for decades that when teen population declines so does violent crime as a whole. Sure you still get crime from 30 and older criminals, but not nearly as much as a proportion of the population.

[TheAntiDoomer]

It's almost completly the abortion thing. The Freakonomics guys pretty much proved it.

[dorlomin]

The fall in crime is a phenomena across the entire west. There are lots of theories, everyone seems to think the things they want to happen in society are part of the explanation.



http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/ ... d-economic

One popular explanation is the reduction in lead in petrol
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... ish-export


Many specific types of crime, like twoc (stealing cars) is much harder, others like bank robbery is harder and less profitable. Some drugs like crack and heroine are falling in use though meth is pretty high. But many of the drugs of choice, weed and MDMA are not really associated with violence.

Whatever the reasons they are likely to be complex, contradictory and controversial.

[dissident]

In the face of this reduced crime trend, here in Harper-land (aka Canada) we have 5500 new prison guards hired to run new prisons. This is to accommodate all the new inmates from mandatory sentencing. You know, we need to get tough on crime. Meanwhile the budget of Environment Canada was cut by 20% with associated layoffs. We know that caring about air quality and climate is for commie loons who want to take away the freedom of corporations to trash the planet.

God save us from the corporate utopians.

[Keith_McClary]

In the wider debate I think a lot of the fall in violent crime has been the fall in teen aged population as a demographic effect. It is well known that young people raging with hormones and frustrated with life are more likely to turn to violence as a way of getting what they want. Crime statistics have shown for decades that when teen population declines so does violent crime as a whole. Sure you still get crime from 30 and older criminals, but not nearly as much as a proportion of the population.

US Bureau of Justice Statistics
Couldn't find more recent data.


Figure 54: Offenders, by age, 1996–97 to 2009–10 (rate per 100,000 relevant persons)
(Australia)