[midnight-gamer]

Anyone seen this presumptuous article on CNN?
http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/04/opinion/frum-peak-oil/index.html?hpt=us_mid#cnn-disqus-area

[Ian McPherson]

It's nonsense. Ignore it. The oil industry is proceeding exactly as Robert Hirsch predicted in his 2005 peak oil report. The unconventionals will add to the area under the Hubbert Curve, but will be unlikely to be able to satisfy demand in the long term, because of high cost, low flow rates and high depletion rates.

The peak oil community has cried wolf too many times before, to our detriment. We must keep adjusting the predictions as new information comes to light. That includes new sources of supply. Be patient please. All things peak and decline, even denial. It's only a matter of time...

[Dybbuk]

The title of the piece should have been "The Market Is God", because that's the basis of this point of view. The market has god-like powers to eternally provide what we need, so we should "stop worrying". And of course, the usual silly comments about how "they've been saying that for years, and it hasn't happened". Like how in 2005 they'd been saying for years that the housing bubble would burst, like how in the 1990's they'd been saying for years that the U.S. would suffer a major terrorist attack, etc., etc...

Just how god-like the market is, can actually be an interesting topic to discuss, but no one wants to discuss it. Everyone seems to take a black-and-white position...either the market is god, or the market is dirty and evil and is only there to make corporate bigwigs rich, at the expense of the longsuffering working stiff. The reality is far more nuanced and interesting than either of these positions, but no one wants to hear the reality.

[ralfy]

Here's another:

"Fracking to the rescue as US oil production hits 20-year high"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... -high.html

However, there are several good points in the comments section of each article.

[Lore]

Correct me if I'm wrong here. Increased US oil production has narrowed the spread between imported and domestic supplies by about 20% since 2005. Rounding it up we are only importing 40% now instead of 60% for our own domestic refining, but wait, we are also consuming less oil in the US to the tune of about 19/mbpd, down from around 22 million barrels. The numbers reflect about a 15% reduction from the high point of our usage, yet the US is still surprisingly consuming about 22% of the world's oil. So, what does that say about total world supplies? That number hasn't changed significantly. However, other countries are gaining fast. Most of the excess here is obviously then being refined for export.

Less use and more domestic production tends to skew the numbers as opposed to overall world consumption, which as pointed out, is still increasing at a hefty rate. The oil boom in the US is therefore somewhat of an illusion when considering global oil needs and price.

[Pops]

I have always been mostly cool, that is my style

Pete, you are far from cool! More like Rove on election night.

Your welcome of Ian here (the first intelligent peaker to post up here in a long while) makes me think it's no wonder there is no po community.

Anyway ,here is the gist of the story:

many experts expect production of 90 million barrels by decade's end.

Considering that Frum's point is that people have been predicting peak forever and cites the IEA right up front, this is instructive:



It's no surprise he's hoping for a flood of oil from Iraq though, he was the Speechifier in Chief's speechwriter after all, coined the term "axis of evil" and with his buddy Pearle, was a great instigator of the war. Considering nothing else he wrote about Iraq was true, I suppose he's hoping for a little oil so he can say he knew it all along.

[dissident]

David Frum is a neocon kook that did quite a bit to sell us the Iraq war. Now he is trying to sell us another bridge. Are we going to buy it too?

[dinopello]

David Frum is a neocon kook that did quite a bit to sell us the Iraq war. Now he is trying to sell us another bridge. Are we going to buy it too?

He's a very smart neocon kook. He is not a pure ideolog, he's playing a deeper game. It's possible it could be something shallow like a money game though.

[PrestonSturges]

I don't think we need advice from a warmongering Canadian (whiplash!) like Frum on fossil fuel policy.