[Plantagenet]

I just went to a screening of "Switch"---the new documentary movie that discusses the future of energy. This film is quite a big deal----the "Switch" website says the film will be shown at 250 US Universities this year, and sure enough here it was at the University of Alaska. Its also winning prizes at various film festivals.

Switch energy project website

The film does a nice job of going through various kinds of energy (solar, hydro, biofuels, coal, NG, oil, nukes, frakking) and the point of the film is that we have to "Switch" from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

At the end of the film they get to the point----the film shifts to a lecture hall where the professor is giving a powerpoint lecture (shades of Al Gore in "an inconvenient truth). The prof says that as we run out of oil, the price goes up, so we will never run out of oil. Fifty years from now the film shows the world using the same amount of oil, but because of growth we have to "switch" so we use more renewables than oil. Fifty years?

A fifty-year long oil plateau? This film is what students all over American are seeing so they can learn about our energy future???

[ROCKMAN]

That does strike as a long time line also. I also wonder if the film might have had a stronger impact if it had emphasized a more critical "switch" going on today and not decades in the future: the switch from oil to coal. Given the mounting concern of AGW doing so might have put a too pessitmistic tone on a discussion of building out the alts.

[Dybbuk]

50 years might be a reasonable figure for total fossil fuel use. But it does seem long for oil...unless they start making synthetic petroleum.

[Plantagenet]

50 years might be a reasonable figure for total fossil fuel use. But it does seem long for oil...unless they start making synthetic petroleum.

This film bills itself as an educational "green" documentary telling hard truths about the need to "Switch" to alternative renewable energy. But the conclusion is that oil and coal will be there for the next 50 years---and only then do we have to switch to an economy dominated by renewables.

If its 50 years until we have to "switch" then who cares? That means BAU for the next 50 years. No big deal.

This film is being distributed free to universities and high schools across the USA. Who the heck is paying for that? In hindsight, I wonder if it was funded by an oil company and it is just pretending to be about the "switch" to alternative energy. The message viewers come away with is that the energy crisis isnt' actually a crisis----we can do little things now (the narrator of the film concludes by driving a GEM electric cart to take his kids to school and insulating his attic) and that is enough to slowly and gradually move towards the "switch" that won't actually occur until some time way off decades into the future.

Has anybody else seen it? Its being distributed free to colleges, universities and high schools across the USA---who the heck is paying for that????

[Dybbuk]

Maybe they chose a longer time horizon so as to minimize the appearance of an agenda. After all, most of the debate about peak oil is about the "when" and not the "what". Even the cornies will admit that at some point in the distant future, we'll have to start replacing fossil fuel use with renewable energy. The argument is about how soon and how gradually.

One thing I've noticed so many times in discussions with people about the future, is that a lot of people aren't intuitive enough to envision endgames. All they know is what they see in front of them. If there are still gas stations on every corner that never run out, there's a mental disconnect that prevents them from contemplating that this state of affairs might not be here forever. And the corny types feed on this myopia...if oil production this month is the highest it has ever been, they declare "problem nonexistent" and make fun of anyone who acts like there is still an issue to be discussed.

So maybe this film can at least plant a seed in some people's minds that this "switch" is inevitable. Or maybe it is a propaganda piece like you said. According to the schedule, it is showing this week at a place that is about a half hour drive from me. Wonder if it's worth the trip?

[Plantagenet]

maybe it is a propaganda piece like you said. According to the schedule, it is showing this week at a place that is about a half hour drive from me. Wonder if it's worth the trip?

I enjoyed the movie "Switch". Its very well made---the narrator personally visits power plants, mines, offshore oil rigs, hydro plants etc. from Norway to Iceland to India to Texas. At the very end of the movie he does the long term projection of these power sources and concludes we'll have to "Switch" to an economy dominated by renewable energy in 50 years.

Its not your typical low budget independent "green" movie. Whoever made it had a huge budget for filming and travel----and now they are showing it for free all over the country.

Who the heck makes a 90 minute documentary movie and then shows it for free?

If you do go to see it, stay for the credits and see if it says who is behind the movie------I left at the end of the film and missed the credits.

[dinopello]

IMDB has some info on the film. Say it was produced by Scott Tinker

Dr. Tinker worked in the oil and gas industry for 17 years in research, exploration, and development, prior to coming to The University of Texas at Austin in 2000. Scott has been a licensed professional geoscientist in Texas since 2003. He is very active in professional organizations and societies and is the past President of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists and the Association of American State Geologists. He will serve as President of the Gulf Coast Association of Geological Societies in 2012. Dr. Tinker also holds appointments to the National Petroleum Council and the Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission, and he currently serves on several private, university, and professional boards.

Dr. Tinker is the Director of the Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG) and the Director of the Advanced Energy Consortium. He is also the acting Associate Dean for Research and Professor, and he holds the Allday Endowed Chair in the Jackson School of Geosciences at The University of Texas at Austin. He graduated magna cum laude with a Bachelor of Science degree and majors in Geology and Business Administration from Trinity University. He received his Master of Science degree in Geology from the University of Michigan and his Ph.D. in Geosciences from the University of Colorado.

[ralfy]

Related:

"It Will Take 131 Years To Replace Oil, And We've Only Got 10"

http://www.businessinsider.com/131-year ... il-2010-11

[ennui2]

That article is from 3 years ago. Try one more current from the same source.

[ralfy]

That article is from 3 years ago. Try one more current from the same source.

Unfortunately,

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_an ... dance.html

http://shalebubble.org

Also, check out some of the comments to the article, such as the point that resorting to non-conventional production doesn't mean that peak oil is "dead" but actually confirms the opposite.

And then there's oil production per capita, which is more logical:

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/09/p ... apita.html