[ROCKMAN]

Just an indication of what oil exporters feel they need to do to add significant reserves to their base. And perhaps presumably also where they expect oil prices to eventually go. From Rig Zone:

MOSCOW - The world's largest listed oil producer, Russia's Rosneft, plans to invest $1.5 billion to survey the East Arctic shelf, deputy general director at Rosneft-Shelf-Far-East said Friday, Interfax news agency reported. Oleg Sivousov also said investments in Far East and Arctic projects have so far totaled $46.4 billion, Interfax reported. The Arctic is one of the few remaining places that can move the needle for oil giants in terms of production and reserves, but the technical challenges are formidable. At the end of January, Rosneft received licenses for 12 plots of the Barents, Kara, Chukchi and Laptev seas.

[C8]

Hey Rockman, you probably don't remember me but I used to post at TOD last year. I remember you because I posted how much $ my father in law got for a fracking lease on his land in Wheeling WV and you kindly offered to bid on it to increase their offer. I created a book summary on TOD that broke their record for replies (over 630). Hope you are doing well, I seem to remember you are a geologist from Texas who works for an independent self sufficient oil driller and you have some kind of medical condition (can't remember what). I sort of dropped out of the PO stuff after I became aware of how bad climate change was going to be. I decided to get away from it all and just have fun, but I always followed your writings. Anyways, good to hear from you.

With regard to the arctic- the only problem that I see (and its a big one) is the problem of storms. In the GOM if you have a hurricane you just abandon the rig and come back later to do minor repairs. But the sea in the arctic is full of very heavy, sharp and destructive ice and as the weather warms there will be more storms that can shove all this stuff around and into rigs. Arctic storms can really be deadly in other ways too as the wind chill can hamper people mounting relief/rescue/repair efforts. IMHO it will be decades before the arctic is safe enough to drill in. There is too much variability in the weather there and will be for many years- doesn't seem profitable. I worry that someone will try drilling and a lot of people will die.

[ROCKMAN]

Howdy C8. Yep…in Texas with the same medical problem…still nuts. LOL. Glad I could help you put the screws to those lying bastards in the oil patch.

Yep…the GOM is a walk in the park compared to the Arctic. We know Shell had their problems. Don’t want to pick on my Russian cohorts but I’ve worked on a Russian drillship off the African coast. True story: only nightmare I’ve ever had while sleeping offshore was on that rig. Put my feet thru the ceiling tiles from the top bunk one day. So many “near misses”. One of the reasons I gave up the contract after a year. Yep…lives will be lost in the Arctic…always happen. But in the GOM most are lost in chopper crashes and not in rig accidents. I suspect that won’t be true in the Arctic. You can survive in the GOM water temps for a while…not so in the Arctic. And then consider what it took to deal with the Macondo blowout with more local infrastructure to deal with such a situation then the rest of the world combined. Doesn’t produce a very good feeling.

[dorlomin]

But in the GOM most are lost in chopper crashes and not in rig accidents. I suspect that won’t be true in the Arctic. You can survive in the GOM water temps for a while…not so in the Arctic. And then consider what it took to deal with the Macondo blowout with more local infrastructure to deal with such a situation then the rest of the world combined. Doesn’t produce a very good feeling.

The water kills in minutes up there. I knew some old boys who did the Arctic convoys to the USSR back in WWII, they reckoned you were dead in minutes once you hit the water.

Additionally, form most places it will be a short working year due the ice so people will be under huge time pressure when drilling. And being cold less evaporation to help clean up spills.

[Keith_McClary]

The water kills in minutes up there. I knew some old boys who did the Arctic convoys to the USSR back in WWII, they reckoned you were dead in minutes once you hit the water.

My neighbour was in a convoy post WWII carrying timber from Murmansk stacked on deck. The wood got iced up from freezing spray, making the ships top heavy. Two capsized, all hands lost.

[sparky]

.
The main problem is not the storms , those in the North Sea are doozzies
the big problem is drifting ice , it take EVERYTHING with it and is quite abrasive too

As for the cold waters , yes and no , we were told life expectancy is 3 minutes for an average joe
a guy from Finland fell in the sea, the watch tug stuffed up and took half an hour to get him
he abused them in three languages and wanted to fight the crew
went I asked about the three minutes the Norwegian safety officer say it was for humans, not Finns
in Northern Russia we dipped in water cut out from the ice ,
I nearly died after one second and got out ,
some of the Russians lasted 10 minuted pretending the air was too cold outside

As for surviving on Russian rig , there was an U.S. cosmonaut who did a tour on board the old MIR space station
they had repeated failure of their oxygen plant an had no spares parts, a big fire on board and various near death experiences
every day staying alive was an interesting challenge and they were getting quite cool about fixing whatever
He just couldn't get used to the Russian food rations
He said the MIR should have been kept , it was the best teaching platform for astronauts

[radon]