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Where to invest money now and when the plateau ends?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Where to invest money now and when the plateau ends?

Unread postby mmasters » Fri 05 Jul 2013, 13:20:13

A few years ago when the 2007/08 crash happened I tripled my money in the markets and exited.

These days I find it a bit tougher looking around as far as where to invest. Is the frakking thing worth investing in at this stage of the game?

I think there's probably 2 categories of investments we should discuss:

1) Current market investments for the next few years.

2) Strategic investments for when the plateau ends as there's sure to be a lot of money shuffling around then.

I think ultimately real estate is the way to go in the end (in a state with low property taxes) once this has all played out.
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Re: Where to invest money now and when the plateau ends?

Unread postby dinopello » Fri 05 Jul 2013, 14:00:17

I added a lot of real estate to my investments in the form of various REITs and other capital investment funds (O, NNN, PSEC, etc). They've been a bit volitile but pay a good dividend 5-12%.
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Re: Where to invest money now and when the plateau ends?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 05 Jul 2013, 14:55:32

I think oil service companies are going to continue to do well for the next several years.

As the search for oil becomes ever more frantic, oil service companies will be there to help (and cash in).

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Re: Where to invest money now and when the plateau ends?

Unread postby dinopello » Fri 05 Jul 2013, 15:30:00

pstarr wrote:All others are temporary manufactured bubbles.


Everything in the universe is temporary. Timing is everything.

pstarr wrote:Invest in education, self-sufficiency, a trade, work/trade...


That's all good stuff .
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Re: Where to invest money now and when the plateau ends?

Unread postby KingM » Fri 05 Jul 2013, 17:10:53

I'm really glad I've mostly ignored the investment advice on this forum. Since 2005, when I joined, I forked over $12,000 for bullion coins, which have greatly increased in value, but since they are in case of a hard crash, don't help much in the near term, but have otherwise continued saving in retirement accounts and taxable mutual and bond funds. My net worth has gone up six times in those eight years. My income has tripled.

If I'd listened to PO advice and bought land somewhere I'd be a subsistence farmer.
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Re: Where to invest money now and when the plateau ends?

Unread postby John_A » Fri 05 Jul 2013, 17:45:40

KingM wrote:I'm really glad I've mostly ignored the investment advice on this forum. Since 2005, when I joined, I forked over $12,000 for bullion coins, which have greatly increased in value, but since they are in case of a hard crash, don't help much in the near term, but have otherwise continued saving in retirement accounts and taxable mutual and bond funds. My net worth has gone up six times in those eight years. My income has tripled.

If I'd listened to PO advice and bought land somewhere I'd be a subsistence farmer.


I made most of my net worth improvement since 2009 in the market. Left some in, but have since gotten out again. PMs are generally a long term joke, real estate has done pretty well, and my income has advanced nicely (not as well as yours!) in the worst recovery ever as employers look for proven skills as they dump seat warmers. Was headed hunted 3 times last year, and changed jobs for the first time in nearly 2 decades. That was a nice net worth improvement as well, and long term will provide an even wider range of skills for the next head hunting episode I suppose, but the market has done me pretty well. Right about the time the advice was to flee, I went all in at the bottom. I pay close attention to PO investing advice mostly, and then bet against it pretty hard. Worked for Simon against Ehrlich, and still seems to have quite a bit of merit.
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Re: Where to invest money now and when the plateau ends?

Unread postby mmasters » Fri 05 Jul 2013, 18:06:23

KingM wrote:I'm really glad I've mostly ignored the investment advice on this forum. Since 2005, when I joined, I forked over $12,000 for bullion coins, which have greatly increased in value, but since they are in case of a hard crash, don't help much in the near term, but have otherwise continued saving in retirement accounts and taxable mutual and bond funds. My net worth has gone up six times in those eight years. My income has tripled.

If I'd listened to PO advice and bought land somewhere I'd be a subsistence farmer.

Yeah I agree the general line of buy PMs, land and go farm your way out wasn't very good.
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Re: Where to invest money now and when the plateau ends?

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Fri 05 Jul 2013, 19:08:22

yet...its not a sprint,its a marathon
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Re: Where to invest money now and when the plateau ends?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 05 Jul 2013, 19:58:33

My only stock invest is a small holding of Railroad stocks, they are the only long term way I could think of that food will be shipped long distances after the peak when oil is hard to get. The food grown here consumed in America is shipped by rail, most of the stuff put on cargo ships goes over seas and in a world of shortages that might no hppen an more so ship socks seem more risky to me.
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Re: Where to invest money now and when the plateau ends?

Unread postby westexas » Sat 06 Jul 2013, 14:11:40

If I'd listened to PO advice and bought land somewhere I'd be a subsistence farmer.


Here is a file for historical annual farmland prices in Iowa:

http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/w ... /c2-72.pdf

Some rates of increase in farmland prices for three counties in Iowa from 2005 to 2012:

Adair: 16.5%/year
Howard: 15.9%/year
Wright: 15.1%/year

Of course, one does not have to be a farmer, you can lease the land out. I talked to an investor at a recent ASPO-USA conference who bought farmland circa 2005. His average rate of increase in rent has been about 20%/year.

My overall ELP Plan advice from six years ago:

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2011- ... ze-produce
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Re: Where to invest money now and when the plateau ends?

Unread postby Pops » Sat 06 Jul 2013, 14:29:20

The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Where to invest money now and when the plateau ends?

Unread postby mmasters » Sat 06 Jul 2013, 14:55:23

Some good ideas. Keep em coming!

Oil service companies

Railroads (on the downslide)

Farmland REITs - not publically available yet, farmland investment funds (good now and on the downside)
http://moneymorning.com/2012/07/12/why- ... -farmland/
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Re: Where to invest money now and when the plateau ends?

Unread postby mmasters » Sat 06 Jul 2013, 15:49:44

pstarr wrote:Exactly. Given that (money==debt==promise-of-future-work==energy) we will ultimately (how soon is anyone's guess?) enter into a deflation. Perhaps a deflationary spiral? When that happens all of our expectations built up during the increasing-energy regime will be turned on their heads.

--Decreasing energy==decreasing money supply.
--Things will be worth less (not more) in today's dollar.
--The opposite of inflation.
--Less money to buy things.
--Less trade.
--More indebtedness.
--Less power to the people.
--Less money.

Who wins? Those willing to accept labor for food. And who would that be? The landowners. The farmers.


I suppose more particularly it'll be stagflation on the way down (deflation + inflation in food and gas prices). The essential things in life will drive the economy, much like how rural towns operate on the essentials in life, this will become most everywhere. I think Jim Rodgers is right, the farmers/farmland owners will profit in the future because next wave of globalization will be that of essentialism.

After that there wont be anywhere left for the fractional money system to take us. That's when I predict socialism will come in--once the playing field has been reduced to that level the people will have no power left.
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Re: Where to invest money now and when the plateau ends?

Unread postby Pops » Sat 06 Jul 2013, 17:56:39

pstarr wrote:Compared feudal serfdoms, though one would hope we have gotten behind that, at least in the West.

We've gotten behind it all right!

Rentier economics, profit from the past.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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