[OilDummy]

WoW! This place is scary to a "non-liberal" "peak-oil unbeliever" like me. It is, to me, very much like the tWiLiGhT zOnE we so much hated to enjoy in the 60's.

Just a cursory glimpse around here indicates to me I likely won't be a regular here on PO. I'll be nice while I'm around, but I really just do not believe what most of you folks do.

Oh, and please don't discount me...I very nearly lost everything attempting to become part of the organic agriculture movement 10-15 years ago. That was a hoax as well. Nice idea, but a cruel hoax to promote the beliefs that O.A. could ever be economically viable for the individual farmer.

This energy business is much the same; peak oil-schmeak oil makes about as much sense as getting rid of freon (now we're worried abt CO2 instead), outlawing oil-based (Ooooo we're asceert-a flaxseed oil now?) wood preservatives (paints) in favor of PVC house skins, etc., etc., ad nauseum. Some of you people (present company excluded) just need something to be worried about, don't you?

End of the beginning.

[Roccland]

You were taken by the first "hoax"... That is interesting.

Well - try to stick around - a lot of good science based fact is discussed here.

[skeptik]

So... what is it precisely about the word 'finite' that you don't understand?

[dinopello]

Don't worry, be happy. Worry never helps. Neither does panic.

[gnm]

Don't assume we're all "liberals" here... Apparently you need to label people?

So what part of "natural resources deplete" do you think is inaccurate? Do you think the US can drill its way out of being a massively import dependent country?

Have you studied the facts? Do you think Matthew Simmons is a shrieking liberal conspirator who just wants to stop global warming? How about Jeffery Brown?

You should review the material on peakoil.net and maybe stop by theoildrum.com before you naysay peak oil...

-G

[OilDummy]

You were taken by the first "hoax"... That is interesting. Well - try to stick around - a lot of good science based fact is discussed here.

A quick look around at the "science based fact" runs almost 180 deg. contrary to much of what I read...how does THAT happen, how can so much be so contrary?

Oh, btw, the O.A. also involved the "love" of farming that has kept so many in it until it has wrecked them. I got out with my credit barely intact, still trying to square up with creditors.

[gnm]

A quick look around at the "science based fact" runs almost 180 deg. contrary to much of what I read...how does THAT happen, how can so much be so contrary? .

What have you read which says otherwise? Any references or links? Are we talking shale oil here?

Sorry to hear about the organic farming failure. A lot of people are making a lot of money selling premium priced organic produce however. Having friends who are in fact farmers I have first hand information on just how tough it can be (severe crop failures/insects etc).
-G

[Micki]

Before you go just ask yourself a couple of things:
1) IF Peak oil is real and may affect us in the near future, would you be better off knowing about it so that you can prepare?

2) Do you think the concept of peak oil is real?
i.e. oil is a finite resource? If it is finite there would be a point in time when maximum extraction rate was reached (and that is what PO theory is about) so the question is not IF but WHEN.

If you agree to both above you should spend some more effort on researching the topic rather than stick your head in the sand.

Peak Oil as a concept is not invented by us at this site. It has been acknowledged at least since 1956 when oil geologist Hubbert correctly predicted US peak production would happen 1969-1971.
He was also laughed at until it was painfully obvious he had been dead on right.
Every well has a peak production moment and production thereafter slips into decline. Every field has a peak moment.
Every country has a peak moment (and many of them have passed their peak production) Why not globally?

This forum is not for everyone, so perhaps visit peakoil.net, theoildrum.com etc. and at least understand what the concept is about.

I have one more favor to ask that you do to yourself. At least have a look at these brief clips.

14 min show from ABC. Short and sweet: ABC

AND: Four Corners

[dinopello]

A lot of people are making a lot of money selling premium priced organic produce however. Having friends who are in fact farmers I have first hand information on just how tough it can be (severe crop failures/insects etc).-G

From what I can tell, farming organically requires knowledge, skill and hard work but it is profitable for those that are adept at it. Or organic farmers market has been growing every year - more entries into the supplier side usually means there is profit to be had. And, as the prosthesis of fossil fuel based, fertilizers and pesticides become more and more expensive it seems like it will become more attractive - at least in servicing markets like where I live.

[OilDummy]

I was thrown out of a different type of forum for speaking my mind and not taking their guff (I'm being nice here). I didn't expect to come across this and I certainly didn't expect to engage anyone this soon. I haven't done my homework and I am, quite honestly, not prepared to share it just yet even if I had all the proverbial ducks in a row.

Let me see how open-minded it is here before I waste my time re-researching that which I have come across in the past.

[skeptik]

A quick look around at the "science based fact" runs almost 180 deg. contrary to much of what I read...

The concept is actually remarkably simple. For any non-renewable resource the following occurs. Discovery. Rate of production starts at zero, ramps up to a maximum, and then declines back down to zero. 'Low hanging fruit' applies. The easiest and cheapest part of the resource is extracted first. As more is extracted it becomes ever more difficult and more expensive to extract. Thats it basically. Exactly when the peak of oil production will occur, and what it's implications are, is open to endless debate.

how does THAT happen, how can so much be so contrary?

Poor data. Trying to figure out how much oil is contained in complex geological structures thousands of feet under the ground, and how much of that can be produced is a non-trivial exercise. Much of the data (resource, 'reserves', and production) is also massaged or deliberately hidden for political , economic, financial reasons.

Oh, btw, the O.A. also involved the "love" of farming that has kept so many in it until it has wrecked them. I got out with my credit barely intact, still trying to square up with creditors.

You have my sympathies. The organic farming movement has done quite well in the UK, where I come from.

link

"The market for organic products is generally buoyant and expanding. Retail sales of organic produce are now worth approx. £1.2 billion per year with considerable opportunity for import substitution through increasing home production. All the available evidence suggests that for the foreseeable future the UK organic market will continue to increase and many farmers and growers may be missing a good business opportunity if they do not give serious thought to organic production."

[Roccland]

I was thrown out of a different type of forum for speaking my mind and not taking their guff (I'm being nice here). I didn't expect to come across this and I certainly didn't expect to engage anyone this soon. I haven't done my homework and I am, quite honestly, not prepared to share it just yet even if I had all the proverbial ducks in a row. Let me see how open-minded it is here before I waste my time re-researching that which I have come across in the past.

Here's a suggestion. Don't ridicule before one does their homework.

Really - As far as I am concerned - you are a troll. If you never posted anything again here I could give a rip.

Bitter perverted washed up fat white guy... There howz that for stereotyping...?

[OilDummy]

Well, peck,

you are exactly right and woefully wrong. I am fat, I am nearly bald too, but I have done the homework...so much so that I have forgotten more than you ever knew, I think.

But for you to become so mean and vehement...in an obvious attempt to drive me off...well, that's quite interesting.

And it is quite telling because you don't know me, you don't know from where I come, and you just might have to be open-minded enough to give my evidence some consideration, but you fear my stuff might be better than yours.

An early reply such as yours to my rather civil response to all this is telling...and indicates to me that this my well be the troll den.

Good God you're a nasty person.

[Roccland]

Well, peck, you are exactly right and woefully wrong. I am fat, I am nearly bald too, but I have done the homework...so much so that I have forgotten more than you ever knew, I think.
But for you to become so mean and vehement...in an obvious attempt to drive me off...well, that's quite interesting.
And it is quite telling because you don't know me, you don't know from where I come, and you just might have to be open-minded enough to give my evidence some consideration, but you fear my stuff might be better than yours.
An early reply such as yours to my rather civil response to all this is telling...and indicates to me that this my well be the troll den.
Good God you're a nasty person.

Naw bro - you have not seen nasty. You can (and should) - create a brand new profile and start all over again.

Read some first - then post - kind of a golden rule round here.
Later dude.

[korosten]

Oildummy, let's see if we can agree on any of the following
1. the earths mass is finite
2. therefore oil is finite
3. therefore oil will have an end sometime
4. therefore oil production will have a peak flow at some point (called peak oil)

Where do you disagree so far?

[skeptik]

Well, peck, you are exactly right and woefully wrong. I am fat, I am nearly bald too, but I have done the homework..

You unfortunately caused some confusion by stating that you haven't done your homework in an earlier post

[OilDummy]

The term "organic" has become a marketing tool much as the term "green" has become popular as a tool to let everyone know this business or that is cool.

While the term organic is better defined that it was 15 years ago, it still is not a strict definition everywhere.

But what I was getting at is that the promoters of the day actually believed we could return to family-based agriculture as it once was here in the U.S. Now, it is invaded by corporate ag and food marketing interests.

Today's agribusiness credo is: "If it ain't big, it ain't!"

[OilDummy]

Oildummy, let's see if we can agree on any of the following:
1. the earths mass is finite
2. therefore oil is finite
3. therefore oil will have an end sometime
4. therefore oil production will have a peak flow at some point (called peak oil)
Where do you disagree so far?

Number Two.

[jlw61]

Oh, look... oil is up almost $6 right now.

How about that!

[OilDummy]

Well, peck, you are exactly right and woefully wrong. I am fat, I am nearly bald too, but I have done the homework..

You unfortunately caused some confusion by stating that you haven't done your homework in an earlier post

Gosh, This is a pretty picky bunch here. I said I hadn't done my homework in reference to preparing for this forum. Does anyone think someone keeps pages of information at their fingertips for something like this? I was just roaming around and came across this. This is not my regular church, not my pew. I don't belong here, obviously, and if I can respectfully find the door, I'll be out of here as quickly as I came.....but if the attacks keep coming, I won't tolerate that.

Oh, just so you folks know, I am doing my part. In my job each day I consume in the neighborhood of 1,000 to 5,000 gallons of diesel during a shift. That'll make it so you small car freaks can have your way that much more quickly.