[NorthernLine]

Hi

I'm a new member here but I've been reading up on peak oil for the past few months. It's a shame that TOD is closing down as it was highly valuable to me while learning. Thankfully this forum looks well populated and is full of knowledge so keep it up

I'm interested in how you think the next 10 years will pan out? Will our world look the same in 2023 with nothing changing other then the usual stuff (music etc)? Or will first world countries increasing look like second world countries? Have we hit peak oil or are we close to it? Maybe you think we're still quite far away from hitting it?

Personally I think we're going to hit something big. I've been looking at the British economy recently and everything looks worse and worse. Unemployment is very high and lots of new jobs are zero hour contracts or part time work. Our official labour productivity has been going down and down for the past few years. Wages are stagnant at best. I think a lot of this can indeed be put down to our loss of easy cheap oil that we had 10-15 years ago. We have nothing to boost our economy with. Petrol prices are sky high too and no-one I know of my age drives a car. I remember when I was 10 years younger, people my age did own cars but they don't today. A lot of these problems seem to have begun before the recent crash.







I'd like to think that we can weather the storm. That our society can adjust and human ingenuity will guide us out of our addiction to the sweet stuff. However, I'm really interested in history and am hoping to study it at university starting in a few weeks. I don't see human ingenuity saving us. Societies have collapsed after losing much less than we're losing. Oil is a lifeblood. If we lose it, we lose our civilisation. I apologise if this sounds like I'm too much of a doomer but I think we're in a 'fall of Rome' type scenario. It's all well and good saying we can have oil free electricity but our food, our medicines, our plastics and our jobs in these industries keep us alive. Without them, what do we have?

I admire people who try to achieve sustainability in their villages through planting vegetables etc but if I'm honest I think it's useless in the long term. 60+ million people in the UK live on an island that can't grow anywhere near enough food. We need the imports. We couldn't get above 8-10 million people in our pre-industrial days so I suspect 50 million of us are kept alive only on a drip feed of oil.

[Pops]

Hi NoLi, I hate prediction threads so here's mine, lol

In 10 years we'll have begun to see overall decline in crude and condensate production. Not really all that far fetched since already the world outside of 14 counties in the US has been virtually flat for 8 years.

Who knows what prices will do but they can't go below the cost of marginal production, not for long anyway, so figure $90 + inflation as a minimum (tar sands). That is if inflation is still around: fewer oil slaves equals less surplus, equals de-flation not in-flation. 10 years may be too early to see it, unless decline is pretty fast.

And rate of decline is the key. Even flat growth in supply puts a damper on the global economy (as we've seen) and since the economy is where most of us get our daily bread, a shrinking economy is where peak oil will impact us, each and every one of us.

The EIA just released their long term projections and as usual they expect blue skys and high tides forever. I'm not sure who works at the EIA but I see them as being better at gauging demand than supply. Give their report a read to see where supply MUST go in order for BAU to continue. Here is one scientific looking crystal ball reflection designed to warm the cockles of any stock market fluffer:



--
10 years ago I worried that folks really thought the road went on forever. I thought we'd run head-long and full-tilt into the brick wall of depletion, unfettered capitalist and consumerist greed - we'd already embarked on the never-ending world war for oil and I thought we were headed for a big fall. In my mind, the price peak and economic crash of '08 was the shot across the bow of the HMS BAU that would, or at least should, constitute a cold slap in the face to anyone able to change direction - at least on a personal level.

Stuff happens, there will be disruptions, wars and dislocations like there always has been but I think PO is going to be the ghost in the machine that just keeps plugging up the works, never out in the limelight because no one wants to look at it full on but the thing that sneaks up and gets you. Long term the most important consideration isn't driving the personal vehicle to holiday, it's the ability to support yourself and for most that means having a job. That is where PO will getcha.

Don't be reassured and think PO is bull because you look out the window and instead of Mad Max you see the postman, he might be there to deliver your pink slip.

.

[Lore]

From James Howard Kunstler's recent blog post about America...

The idea that techno-industrial society is headed toward a collapse has become very unpopular the last couple of years. Thoughts (and fears) about it have been replaced by a kind of grand redemption fantasy that bears the same relation to economics that masturbation has to pornography. One way to sum up the current psychological state of the nation is that an awful lot of people who ought to know better don’t know their ass from a hole in the ground anymore. We’re witnessing the implosion of the American hive mind.

It goes on with his standard mix of gloom and redemption towards a bucolic fantasy of a return to small towns and rural living. This is wishful thinking too.

My prediction is that you can never go back, only forward for better or worse. Yes, certainly contraction in many different ways is obvious for our future and most ignore it, as Kunstler points out, because we are in dreamtime.

[NorthernLine]

Hi NoLi, I hate prediction threads so here's mine, lol

Thanks for your answer

It feels like as well as declining oil production we'll be facing being priced out by the new powerful economies like China etc. So by 2023 we'll be hitting a doubly wammy.

I've been looking at a book to buy and I've seen one written by two economics newspaper editors who saw that our financial boom was bogus and we were heading for a fall. They predict that by 2014 Britain will have what constitutes a 'third world' economy. Our reliance on the outside world coupled with energy shortages could cripple us apparently. We then have a largely unskilled workforce along with our economic reliance on the City which can't be trusted. It's quite scary stuff and the reviews seem to show that they know what they're talking about.

I've read some predictions from the EIA and other groups. I find it quite funny how they always predict a great future, that we'll always have an economy that grows infinitely. Then there are those graphs that show oil production growing significantly while that growth seems dependant on a huge leap in unconventional oil production or oil wells we've neither discovered nor put into use.

I think there's one thing we can count on and that's that our Capitalist masters will carry on their game until the death. Even after the 2008 crash we've had modest growth fuelled on more mini bubbles. We've made no effort to improve our economy at all. It's almost as if they know that it will fail in the end but they'll carry on as it's making them money. No conscience at all.

Do you have any tips on how to tell people about peak oil? My dad seems to get it but he thinks we'll all be fine. I think he has more pressing issues to worry about though. My brother just refuses to listen and laughs at the idea of running out of (cheap) oil. I've found people to be really uneducated on the subject as I was. They don't know about the oil price just before the 2008 crash and they always assume that cheap oil as it is today will last past our lifetimes. There's no connection in people's minds between oil and economics and oil and everyday life outside of petrol. I wonder if that's the governments and the media wilfully keeping people ignorant of the facts.

[NorthernLine]

This is wishful thinking too.

Hi

The idea of a collapse is really quite a hard idea to grasp. It seems that our world is too connected and secure for it to happen yet our lifeblood if becoming scarcer. If we avoid collapse it'll be fascinating to watch what the world transforms into. I think we're living in a really exciting time. We can't continue as we are so either we'll witness a return to a simpler way of life (for good or for bad) or we'll find out a way to support ourselves and be a different society. It's nice to imagine lovely meadows with kids playing alongside communes of sustainability but are we capable of doing that? We're too greedy.

Often good does come out of collapse....well, eventually After the Black Death, a loss of labour meant peasants became wealthier as they could dictate pay etc.

[Pops]

I don't preach, except anonymously of course, it only seems to bring out the knee-jerk in folks. I understand the urge to tell people what you've learned or think you've learned but instead of putting out the whole litany of PO arguments, just sprinkle your regular conversation with factoids "Yeah, I read that shale is a big bubble." Or whatever, but just drop the hints and let people "discover" the facts themselves.

By the same token, be careful which preacher you choose. Latching on to a guru, especially one shilling a book is not conducive to keeping an open mind. I think that is where forums like this are great, you hear most sides of whatever argument. Don't buy into any one persons schtick, take what makes sense to you and your skills.

Lastly, be careful of getting kicked by your own knee-jerk. At heart I'm a back to the lander and I believe we'll ultimately wind up back in a much more local world as Lore (and Kuntsler) describe. But the fact of the matter is modern ag is required to support modern populations, the only way our society can continue feeding this number of people - and more, is to move further and further along the road of industrialized food production. Which isn't to say the individual can't opt out, we did, but my point is the mainstream is not going to start hoeing weeds, they'll starve.

[Ibon]

Since industrialized humans have been habituated for several generations that disease and starvation has been conquered, we are unfamiliar with the historical norm when this wasn't the case. A future that starts to reintroduce these uncertainties will allow a dynamic to emerge that will plunge some into hopelessness and despair and will awaken in others a drive to persevere. It will awaken in some a desperate selfishness and in others a uniting force in cooperation.

Not a bad thing.

[dashster]

That our society can adjust and human ingenuity will guide us out of our addiction to the sweet stuff.

It looks like it will take a terminal decline in order to get society working on a solution. $100 dollar oil has apparently not been successful in even getting the powers that be to acknowledge/realize that there is a problem looming.

But even acknowledging a problem with oil (and coal and natural gas per the Energy Watch Group) might not get much ingenuity working on a solution. Most people, including the powers that be, acknowledge that the world has a problem with respect to Global Warming. And yet more fossil fuel burning (including coal) power plants are built all the time to satisfy the needs of growing economies (i.e. China) and growing populations (just about everywhere including the United States). Our response to global warming has been to burn fossil fuels at a higher rate each year. Doesn't sound very ingenious.

[NorthernLine]

I don't preach, except anonymously of course, it only seems to bring out the knee-jerk in folks

That's good advice. It annoys me to keep trying to tell people these things and I'm sure it annoys them when they have more important and pressing things to think about.

Yeah with issues such as this, where there's no clear idea of what will happen, it needs to be discussed rather than taught by one loud voice. If you read one author's view only you could easily come to the conclusion that we're about to return to the Palaeolithic. Others will convince you that we're going to become some communist utopia.

I have a little problem myself with being biased. I'm a fan of small farming communities a la Bronze Age and I'd want to live somewhere like that even without modern amenities. I have to be careful not to *want* peak oil because it won't result in a peaceful decline to that level but to poverty and violence most likely etc. I'm much more concerned than optimistic. If our quality of life declines hugely I'm as likely to be a victim as the next man.

[NorthernLine]

Not a bad thing.

I remember working in inner city Manchester where the children there thought potatoes were made in factories. These kids were 10 and had never planted anything before. It's quite concerning people can grow up so unaware of the world around them. That can't be good for people's mental health being so disconnected from the world. How would these people survive? Crazy. We're domesticated beyond belief.

[NorthernLine]

It looks like it will take a terminal decline in order to get society working on a solution. $100 dollar oil has apparently not been successful in even getting the powers that be to acknowledge/realize that there is a problem looming.

Well we have the huge problem whereby our politicians will only work for the near future. If the populace don't appreciate the danger then the politicians won't invest huge amounts of money in a future no-one knows about. It'd be political suicide. Even just building a high speed line in Britain has caused a huge debate and controversy. But as they say, you get the government you deserve. I can't believe how cheap oil was just 10-15 years ago compared to today and no-one seems to care. Imagine other commodities becoming as expensive as that and I bet we'd hear about it.

It's clear that we're not as smart as we think. We're just sitting here thinking 'something will come up'

[pasttense]

A very major point is that we don't just have a peak oil problem; rather that peak oil is one of several major problems. For example:
1. Climate Change
2. Financial system--house of cards
3. Peak other natural resources
4. Population--in the Western countries there is baby boomer retirement, in the third world population explosion
5. Exploding health care costs

[NorthernLine]

A very major point is that we don't just have a peak oil problem

That's the big problem isn't it. European countries import so much food from poorer countries. Those poorer countries have a growing middle class demanding European/American lifestyles. More people needing more oil and more people needing more food. Then of course you add in our dangerous financial system and we have a recipe for disaster.

Water is also a problem now, aquifers are being drained. The main Californian aquifer may be completely emptied by 2060. There goes their agriculture and ability to host sprawling cities. Saudi Arabia is also looking at their aquifers drying out. That's the only thing keeping their farming alive in the desert. When they go (they think the next few years) then they're going to need much more oil for themselves and they're going to want to export as much oil as possible to pay for vast food imports to stop any Arab Spring scenario.

[ROCKMAN]

NL – And to add to Pops point about not preaching maybe you haven’t heard of my silly philosophy: Don’t try to teach pigs to roller skate. It only frustrates you and pisses the pigs off.

Just a couple of point you may already understand but in case you get pulled into a debate. Don’t argue about reserves in the ground or how much oil we have today or will be found in the future. PO has nothing to do with how much oil is in the ground or will have in the future. It how much we are producing today and will be in the future. Secondarily it’s also about the price of oil. We are producing at an all-time high now and yet oil is selling for 3X as much as it was just 10 years ago. There are other notable factors but in the end folks really only care about what they have to pay. And today they are paying more than ever before on a yearly average basis and yet we are burning as much or more oil than ever before in history.

Simple facts tend to be the best.

[shouldIBeHere]

I don't know how long it will take, but I really believe that LENR is coming, and it's going to be a major factor.

Been following it very closely for years now, and that's the conclusion that I come up with at this point.

(I'm a brand new member here...so let the ridicule begin)

[Lore]

A very major point is that we don't just have a peak oil problem; rather that peak oil is one of several major problems. For example:
1. Climate Change
2. Financial system--house of cards
3. Peak other natural resources
4. Population--in the Western countries there is baby boomer retirement, in the third world population explosion
5. Exploding health care costs

Exactly, there's a thread here buried, now deep in the bowels of the archives, discussing converging catastrophes. Unlike in the past when the human species got slapped and the only response was WTF happened, we now have a grasp of the total picture. Unfortunately, we still seem to love to be surprised.

[Kristen]

The only guarantee I can proclaim is that humans will become more detached with their surroundings, less interpersonal, and less intelligent. Having the internet and its vast knowledge all the time has reduced the memory span as it is....

Likely...

Cities will grow and be more prosperous. In Minneapolis, bikes lanes will be on most major roads. Our light rail system will be expanded to cover much of the surrounding suburbs.

Oil will be 200 a barrel due to inflation and looking back at the last ten years.

unlikely... but awesome to imagine

A revolution will rise up against the plutocracy that has made us into indentured servants. College students and grads will all stop paying their loans at the same time, making the banks insolvent.

The United States will break up from structural collapse. The Great Lakes region becomes the new center of North America.

[AgentR11]

The core of my prediction is that we are now in a command economy being managed by tools that are at last, up to the task. We have competing inflationary and deflationary forces acting in the presence of a moderating force that continuously subtracts out the delta. Basically excessive government spending (compared with tax revenue) on the inflationary side, and low full-employment rates on the deflationary side; moderation is provided by the Fed's intervention in the bond market, locking in a very low/zero interest rate. A decade ago, I doubt they could have pulled it off, the market's just too fast; but now, the moderators can respond to twitches in the market faster than any of the private or external parties.

So if you accept the command economy premise; then you can come to accept the way the future will play out in the US (and probably most of the industrial nations). Mandatory products (aka FOOD) will gradually resume their place as an increasingly large portion of a citizens budget, but government subsidies at all stages of delivery insure that everyone sane enough to be able to find their way through a grocery checkout, will be able to purchase 3000kcal/day of food. As other discretionary income slips, travel and other recreational expenditures of portable energy will slip. Localization of consumer&market will occur, while at the same time industrial ag will rise to the pinnacle of perfect efficiency. US NG&oil production will remain sufficient to deliver the above 3000kcal/day into central hubs and then localized markets, mostly by rail. As unemployment rises, expect a disconnect between people and their motorized transport for non-motor-essential needs. They won't like it, but they will walk to the grocery store, even along horrible exurb streets, to get enough to eat.

Most importantly though, I expect this all to happen, very, very slowly. Decades. Not months, not even a year or few. This year will always look more or less like last year; just a bit more uncomfortable, and a bit less prosperous. But when we turn on the news and watch stories concerning massive famines in places that we know... we'll find a way to be content with what we can have, as opposed to what we wished we had.

Welcome to powerdown without the rural homesteader bliss. Just the grinding poverty.

[NorthernLine]

@ROCKMAN

Cheers for the tips I guess if people want to find about the future of energy they can lead themselves to peak oil. After all, that's how a lot of us got here in the first place.

I see your point about reserves etc. I understand that lots of reserves cannot be retrieved at this point and it's always likely to change and so any predictions in that sense is probably doomed to fail. All we know is the past rate of discovery and Hubbert's curve.

One question I have is about price. Is the price today of $100~ mostly due to the higher costs of producing oil and the growth of China etc? How much input is there from oil companies inflating the prices themselves like water companies or electricity companies?

@shouldIBeHere

I know very little about fusion. It's always seemed like something that'll be ready 'in the future' yet never is now. Perhaps they can pull it out of the bag.

@Kristen

Good points. There's certainly a lot of investment in Britain in light rail at the moment. Manchester's Metrolink is expanding rapidly, it stops just short of my old town. Birmingham's Metro is growing. London's getting its Crossrail RER thing. Edinburgh is almost ready to open its tram network. Leeds and Bristol are looking to create their own new transport systems. The future is definitely away from the car.

A revolution would be great haha. Londoners can take back the City where they used to live. Romans, Saxons, Normans/Medieval, Tudors.........Bankers. It's sad how it's only really solely for finances now with there being so much human history.

@AgentR11

Your prediction sounds quite reasonable and is in tune with what seems to happen around the world. Countries seem to slowly decline bit by bit until one day we think 'how did it get so bad?'. It's probably much more likely than any huge collapse although we don't know how society will deal with the erosion of its living standards. I could see the youth in London revolting against the government as it has always done periodically. They could choke the city. The level of unemployment would mean they had nothing to lose and their numbers would be bigger than before.

[dorlomin]

I remember working in inner city Manchester where the children there thought potatoes were made in factories. These kids were 10 and had never planted anything before. It's quite concerning people can grow up so unaware of the world around them. That can't be good for people's mental health

Some 9-year old tough who peddles drugs
I swear to God
I swear : I never even knew what drugs were
Oh ...

/derail.