[TheAntiDoomer]

http://www.care2.com/causes/3-reasons-p ... -deal.html

According to a recent study from Stanford University, however, our fear of peak oil might be a little premature. It assumes that consumption will continue to skyrocket until the very last drop is squeezed from the earth. Surprisingly, the study concludes that a variety of economic and societal factors will collide, forcing a switch to alternatives before that point.
“Technological advances and the high price of oil are helping most such alternatives compete on price,” write the authors. “If prices rise above their current levels for an extended period, we’re likely to see even more efforts to improve efficiency and exploit alternatives to conventional oil. That would hasten the onset of a demand-driven peak.”

[dorlomin]

“Several earlier studies have suggested that passenger land travel has already plateaued in industrialized countries and is no longer hitched to economic growth,” explain the authors. “Passenger land travel now accounts for about half of the global transportation energy demand. Even in developing countries, economic growth has been less oil-intensive than was seen in the West during the past century.”

People cant afford to drive as much, therefore peak oil is not a problem.

[ROCKMAN]

“…our fear of peak oil might be a little premature”. About 10 years ago the world was spending about $860 BILLION per year for oil. Today it is spending $2.8 TRILLION per year. Instead of “premature” one might say concerns have risen a tad late.

Of course, that just the monetary loss which doesn't include the ranks of the millions unemployed/underemployed around the world or the hundreds of thousands that have died in military activities in oil producing regions. But the money is what's really important.

[wildbourgman]

I have changed the tone of many of my views on peak oil. I still have the same views with even more evidence when it comes to production capability and cost for the most part. One example is the current well that I'm working on, we are almost 500 million into it and we are having to side track it. Zero production to date and almost half a billion input. We wouldn't do that if cheap and easy oil were available.

In saying that, I don't know that we have to go to a Mad Max scene in our society. We can adjust, but I don't know if we will or what kind of adjustment it'll be. I feel the same way about our fiat currency in the United States, I think it's going to collapse if we keep going down the same road and I think we'll have to adjust as other countries had to when their currency was totally debased. When people say "you can't eat gold" that assumes that a currency collapse means that we are leveled to zombies running around scrounging for the last can of navy beans on the shelf of a wiped out Walmart. What it having a little gold and silver means you have trusted currency to trade with your fellow humans in a civil manner when you have nothing else to barter?

Peak oil could very well be a point on a chart in an economics class many years from now, but it may not be the seventh sign of end times prophecy.

[John_A]

I have changed the tone of many of my views on peak oil. I still have the same views with even more evidence when it comes to production capability and cost for the most part. One example is the current well that I'm working on, we are almost 500 million into it and we are having to side track it. Zero production to date and almost half a billion input. We wouldn't do that if cheap and easy oil were available.

Half a BILLION dollars into one well? 500 million dollars? Holy Well Cost Batman!

Deepwater Horizon and the Macondo prospect was like a 100 million dollar operation, where are you drilling, the east coast of Greenland?

[wildbourgman]

Deepwater GOM baby. Since Macondo it's become even more expensive. I think Apache is even talking about getting out of the gulf (depending on what news you read) due to the added cost of drilling especially in deepwater.

US Gulf activity soars three years post-Macondo: Lease sales hit record highs as explorers jump back in


By Starr Spencer, with Gary Gentile in Washington and Bridget Hunsucker in Houston



April 19, 2013 - Three years after the devastating Macondo oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, activity is soaring above pre-event levels -- with dayrates for drilling rigs matching or exceeding peak levels five years ago, improved permitting times and operators spending more money than they have in decades on deepwater acreage.



But explorers also face double-digit cost increases in the Gulf along with the need for increased time and manpower to assure safety since the accident. Safety has become the watchword for all US Gulf operations, a concern that appears to have spread offshore globally. Since Macondo, US offshore authorities, drillers and Gulf operators, including BP -- which operated the deepwater well that blew out on April 20, 2010 -- have racheted up safety practices throughout the exploration and production chain.

[ROCKMAN]

John - The Wildman is probably running a tad over AFE. That freezer full of Blue Bell ice cream ain't cheap. LOL. But even when there are few problems just reaching TD on an exploratory hole can run $70 - $120 million. And if completed add another $20 - $50 million. And then a few hundred $million for production facilities. Wildman can correct but I suspect his daily burn rate is above $1 million per day...maybe a good bit more. If his side track takes 60 or 80 days you can add maybe another $100 million to the tally.

The most expensive DW dry hole I drilled was $148 million. But it was the second deepest well drilled in the western hemisphere.

[wildbourgman]

I normally don't pay attention to the cost and busted AFE's as long as my check comes in every two weeks we're good to go, but this one was so big that everyone on the rig knows what the number is. Just for clarification it's around 400 million now and expected to be 500 million once the well is completed, give or take ten million.

What's 10 million or so between friends?

[ROCKMAN]

What will it take to recover $500 million? Taking into account the fed royalty that would be 6 million bbls of oil at $100/bbl. Of course that doesn't include the operating expense: could be anywhere from $60k to $300k per month. Nor does it include a pro rata share of the production facility. Nor a pro rata share of the seismic, lease and overhead costs. And lastly doesn't take into account the time value of money: IOW future $'s are worth less than the $'s spent.

So just a very rough guess: they have to produce 6.5 to 7.5 million bbls of oil to just reach a 0% rate of return.

[wildbourgman]

Man that's a whole lot.