[SamInNebraska]

Recently it came to my attention that ASPO was rolling out an official association at the same location that some remnants of TOD had fled to.

"Hosted by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas USA (ASPO-USA) in cooperation with The Planet Beat."

http://www.theplanetbeat.com/aftertod

It is interesting because I believe Jan (head of the ASPO lobbying group in DC) posted over at TOD about opening up something called the Energy-XChange, and if you check the page you'll see that is what is listed at the top.

Combined with the lack of updates and recent recycling of old articles (with a conspicuous lack of date to accompany them) at the ASPO-USA website:

http://peak-oil.org

and one more interesting factoid....no ASPO conference announced this year. In past years August and September was the rally the troops moment for a small get together somewhere or another in October or early November. This year? Nada.

Tom Whipple is posting regularly at Resilience.org, but none of it is showing up at the ASPO website. Since May. Jeff Brown is obviously still alive and posting, as is Kobb and other members of the ASPO board, so they weren't all hit by a bus last week.

So what I am wondering is if the same disrespect recently shown to TOD editors and contributors at industry professional meetings has spilled over and affected the lobbying efforts of ASPO-USA, with the same result?

Anyone here about whether or not ASPO-USA is circling the drain, same as TOD did?

[Beery1]

Who cares?

Oil's decline is coming no matter what happens to ASPO.

[rollin]

As far as world oil production, it is doing a dance between actual depletion and efforts to keep the price up so oil producing countries can meet their obligations. The real action is going to happen over in Asia and some in Africa as they attempt to model the western way of transportation and energy use.

The US has a huge advantage over many countries, it is mediocre at using energy. There is so much slop in the system that we could cut our use by 1/3 and hardly notice. All that the US has to do is learn how to manage it's use and apply some more efficiency measures, thus not even being pinched hard for the first 10 to 15 years of oil production descent. After that, when descent has become obvious, Americans will have to get serious.

The Europeans are already somewhat energy efficient and will be forced to use their abilities to shift even further from oil in the next 10 years. Probably see the best technical innovations and energy management coming from them. Fertile ground for ASPO.

So ASPO-USA does not really have a lot to do for the next decade. ASPO in general has some great action to follow if they can hang in just a few more years. Problem is keeping the impetus during the plateau period. How do you keep beating the war drums when major economy downturns have taken a lot of the demand out of the system?

Study is no longer needed, implementation of various management, technology changes, and social changes are needed now and later. Post Carbon Institute will be in it's heyday.

[ROCKMAN]

rollin - "There is so much slop in the system that we could cut our use by 1/3 and hardly notice." I assume by "we" you mean those of us who wouldn't lose our jobs if we cut a lot of that "mediocre" energy consumption. I agree we have a lot of "slop" in the system. But it's good to remember the millions of Americans whose incomes are dependent upon that slop.

A good plan if you can just figure out how to turn all those service workers into wind turbine and solar panel engineers.

[OldTech]

"millions of Americans whose incomes are dependent upon that slop"

And in a nutshell that is why BAU tends to continue. Any change or proposal that reduces incomes is unacceptable to those who are loosing income. And even if one is not directly loosing income, it adds to the fear that one might loose income.

[ROCKMAN]

OT - Yep...we could not have built a better trap for ourselves if we had intended to. It's a worn out tale but the hare/turtle race still applies. Had we focused on adjusting BAU when we got hit with the price spike in the late 70's we could have SLOWLY but significantly changed BAU. But when the global economy collapsed and oil went to $10/bbl in 1986 any desire to change was lost. We just became the hare napping in the shade because we thought we could afford to take our time.

Obviously we were wrong.

[rollin]

You are right Rockman, there will be plenty of opportunity for new jobs in the future. Not just in the energy field but due to climate change. The money still being made due to Sandy's destruction is phenomenal.

I was not referring to transition of energy, just using energy more efficiently and managing extraneous activities. If a job depends on energy being wasted and unnecessary purchases , time to start looking elsewhere, maybe to Asia or Africa where demand is increasing.

I was able to cut my transportation fuel costs by about 30 percent just by managing trips, doing multiple tasks in one run. Further cuts came when I decided to cut out some unnecessary driving. More money in my pocket and less time wasted. Most people could dramatically cut fuel use with just some planning, no need to even buy a high mpg car. I would say that personal transportation use can be cut 50% by proper planning and cutting out frivolous trips. Now if the manufacturers start building vehicles for efficiency that will cut use by up to half again. More than half of all Chinese vehicle sales are for cars with 1.6 liter engines or less. Imagine what would happen in the US if cars were lightened up, ran on 2 liter engines designed for efficiency instead of luxury and acceleration? Remember what happened in the 80's with cars suddenly getting 40 to 50 mpg showing up?
Look at what is happening in Europe, between 2000 and 2010 new passenger cars CO2 output fell from 168 g/km to 143 g/km. Meanwhile engine power actually increased by about 14% on the average. They already had efficient vehicles but are still pushing further and quickly. This will become the trend here.
Houses have been better insulated for many years now, imagine all the energy that would have been used if that had not happened. Homes are now 30 percent larger than pre-2000 but use 21% less space heating energy. I think that could be cut in half with current methods and technologies. Once the US figures out that we actually reached the Pacific and the Wild West times are over, there will be a big push in energy reductions for building and re-fitting.

Pumping efficiencies are on the rise.
Jet aircraft are now on their way to being twice as efficient, actual flights with new engine designs are happening now.

Disruptive technologies like solar PV, wind and possibly ocean thermal electric generation will steadily erode how electric power is generated. NJ is installing at least another GW of solar PV this year and Pennsylvania produces about 1.3 GW of wind power , with 4GW being the maximum for large installations in that state. Overall in the US there has been a 33% rise in solar PV installation rates in the first quarter of this year. The US is expected to install 4.4 GW of solar PV and .938 GW of solar concentrating power this year. It is small now but growing fast.

China is looking to have half it's electrical generation by renewables in 2030. That is against a background of increasing demand.

Times they are changing but opportunities are also increasing.

[SamInNebraska]

Who cares?

Oil's decline is coming no matter what happens to ASPO.

Yes. We know. People have been saying it in 3 different centuries now. Probably won't make it to 4, but the ones who claimed it in the first or second centuries didn't think it would make it into the 3rd. But here we all are....

[SamInNebraska]

As far as world oil production, it is doing a dance between actual depletion and efforts to keep the price up so oil producing countries can meet their obligations. The real action is going to happen over in Asia and some in Africa as they attempt to model the western way of transportation and energy use.

And you think this is why ASPO is looking suspiciously like it might be circling the drain like TOD?

The Europeans are already somewhat energy efficient and will be forced to use their abilities to shift even further from oil in the next 10 years. Probably see the best technical innovations and energy management coming from them. Fertile ground for ASPO.

Their ASPO seems to still be moving along okay. Not sure about the fertile ground part, America is just as fertile considering prices and whatnot, and the level of whining. But just can't seem to get the traction to convince the country.

So ASPO-USA does not really have a lot to do for the next decade. ASPO in general has some great action to follow if they can hang in just a few more years. Problem is keeping the impetus during the plateau period. How do you keep beating the war drums when major economy downturns have taken a lot of the demand out of the system?

Boy who cried wolf syndrome, certainly something that both TOD and ASPO-USA could be accused of. And really might be part of the reason one has failed, and the other might be.

Study is no longer needed, implementation of various management, technology changes, and social changes are needed now and later. Post Carbon Institute will be in it's heyday.

Post Carbon Institute is a bad joke. Having Mr Pol Pot as your answer man ain't the answer.

[SamInNebraska]

[quote="ROCKMAN"]Had we focused on adjusting BAU when we got hit with the price spike in the late 70's we could have SLOWLY but significantly changed BAU. But when the global economy collapsed and oil went to $10/bbl in 1986 any desire to change was lost./quote]

Some learned there lesson well, and certainly BAU is now different, changed subtly just as you mentioned.

Here is what I owned when I smooched the wife, before she was the wife.



and what happened during the rationing and shortages in the late 70's were traumatic enough that even the 1986 collapse still had me using one of these:

80HP and couldn't get out of its own way, but a solid 50mpg.



but nowadays 50mpg isn't hard and with WAY more comfort and convenience then way back when. Never forgotten the real rationing and shortages, or the ensuing price collapse. When resource scarcity grabs you well, it can stay with you a long time.

These guys did 1600 miles on a single tank...my kind of energy scarce world car!

[ralfy]

From what I remember, around 70 pct of the U.S. economy is heavily dependent on consumer spending, and that in turn is dependent on increasing debt.

Also, in a global capitalist economy, efficiency doesn't lead to more conservation but the same or increased consumption, as unused oil and other resources are sold to others.

Finally, there is demand for more oil and other resources, as most human beings need one or more basic needs. To just need all of those basic needs may strain bio-capacity.

[ROCKMAN]

Sam - And then there's the other side of the story: "Autonews quotes analyst Tom Libby: Through May, sales of full-sized pickups are up 21% this year, compared with 7% for the industry overall, and are on pace to hit 2 million units for the first time since 2007. ”They have a real opportunity to take share,” Libby says."

And imagine, as ralfy implies, if gasoline prices fall a bit.

[Beery1]

Who cares?

Oil's decline is coming no matter what happens to ASPO.

Yes. We know. People have been saying it in 3 different centuries now. Probably won't make it to 4, but the ones who claimed it in the first or second centuries didn't think it would make it into the 3rd. But here we all are....

And despite your team crowing about the death of peak oil 'theory' and predicting exponential growth, global oil production hasn't increased in a decade.

[SamInNebraska]

From what I remember, around 70 pct of the U.S. economy is heavily dependent on consumer spending, and that in turn is dependent on increasing debt.

And so that is why ASPO-USA might be circling the drain like TOD?

Also, in a global capitalist economy, efficiency doesn't lead to more conservation but the same or increased consumption, as unused oil and other resources are sold to others.

And so that is why ASPO-USA might be circling the drain like TOD?

Finally, there is demand for more oil and other resources, as most human beings need one or more basic needs. To just need all of those basic needs may strain bio-capacity.

And so that is why ASPO-USA might be circling the drain like TOD?

[SamInNebraska]

Sam - And then there's the other side of the story: "Autonews quotes analyst Tom Libby: Through May, sales of full-sized pickups are up 21% this year, compared with 7% for the industry overall, and are on pace to hit 2 million units for the first time since 2007. ”They have a real opportunity to take share,” Libby says."

And imagine, as ralfy implies, if gasoline prices fall a bit.

Off goes the sale of pickup trucks! Nice to live in a country rich enough to continue to put fuel in them I suppose, versus (as someone else said) the "scooter" countries. Like that analogy.

I suppose it is possible that the same things causing pickup sales to rise again are the same things causing lack of interest in lobbying groups like ASPO-USA. They just can't figure out how to sell their message in a mature producing province, without choking on the idea that this is happening within it.

[SamInNebraska]

Who cares?

Oil's decline is coming no matter what happens to ASPO.

Yes. We know. People have been saying it in 3 different centuries now. Probably won't make it to 4, but the ones who claimed it in the first or second centuries didn't think it would make it into the 3rd. But here we all are....

And despite your team crowing about the death of peak oil 'theory' and predicting exponential growth, global oil production hasn't increased in a decade.

Actually, conventional crude has increased as of late. First the peak wouldn't peak, and became a plateau, and then the lousy plateau became a higher plateau, isn't this just awful? So basically field declines were made up for, and then some, spanning the timeframe of a decade now. And that is just one subset of the chemical feedstock used to manufacture the consumer products people have an interest in.

The production of those has skyrocketed pretty substantially, up perhaps 5 million barrels a day in the past few years? And that is from the last supposed peak, so now we need to discuss the next higher plateau I suppose. Doesn't really look like a plateau, when viewed from a particular timeframe.

The trend from 1985 doesn't even seem to consider the plateau generating all the fascination in some circles.

[JanLarsMueller]

There are a number of things in the post by Sam in Nebraska regarding ASPO-USA that need to be cleared up.

First, I think Sam mis-characterizes the situation with The Oil Drum. I am not privy to all the details, but it was not the external force of a "drain" that led to the decision to put the TOD website on hiatus, but a deliberate assessment by the TOD board that something needed to change. You can disagree with the decision, but it was made for good reason.

ASPO-USA is also effecting deliberate changes to how we approach our work. The simple fact is that the term "peak oil" has worn out much of its usefulness and become a liability. After narrowly focusing attention on VOLUME of oil supply for so long, we should not be surprised that an uptick in supply volume in some places is now tripping us up.

It is not easy for an organization named the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas to move beyond peak oil, but that is what we must do to bring our work to broader and more influential audiences.

To be clear, oil and gas are still central to the story that we are trying to tell, but we must tell that story in a broader context and connect with the things that most people understand and care about--in particular, how oil and energy relate to the economy.

We have been planning a new website called The Energy Xchange that will focus on the energy-economy nexus and positive actions to reduce the economic risks of America's oil dependence. The site is aimed at audiences beyond the so-called peak oil community, but when TOD announced it would cease regular operation, we thought it would be appropriate for ASPO-USA to offer to serve as a home for TOD refugees.

The Energy Xchange, however, was not ready for launch, so we created a minimalist INTERIM site (as noted on the homepage) that would provide continuity for the TOD community. The TOD community may scatter regardless, but we thought it worth an effort.

Sam may have created some other misperceptions about ASPO-USA. We are a primarily a volunteer network of allied professionals and concerned citizens organized to share information and help people understand and adapt to a new energy reality. We are based in Washington DC, but at present we do not focus on "lobbying."

Hosting an annual conference has been the most visible part of our work. But the effort required and value of holding a "peak oil" conference reached a point of diminishing returns. If our goal is to reach beyond the peak oil community, we needed to re-think the conference and develop our capacity in other areas. Consequently, we elected to not host a conference this year.

...Spam Deleted...

With regards,

Jan Lars Mueller
Executive Director, ASPO-USA

[ROCKMAN]

Jan - I agree with you for the most part. I've been one of the folks that have argued against a sometimes almost obsessive focus on a PO date. I finally had to create my admittedly odd acronym "POD"... peak oil dynamic. As an aside I wondered how many caught the slight joke: POD vs. TOD? It was just an effort to transition from date and reserves volume arguments to a broader discussion of the entire dynamic that's affecting our lives.

But having said that consider this site. How more peakoilish can it get than "peakoil.com"? Yet life seems to be going on just fine around here. Perhaps it has more to do with the format. I spent years on TOD but I think the ability to create new threads by the participants on po.com has allowed the site to evolve into not just a broader discussion but instantly able to focus on current affairs. Even those not strongly related to PO. Consider our discussions on the Syrian situation. Energy is just a very small sidebar to the discussion but it has energized the site lately. More energy from more interest. More interest more participation.

peakoil.com is not going to be some leading force developing changes in our energy policies. A worthy goal that your organization may strive for. But I doubt many here have had such expectations for this site. It's just a place for a very tiny community of folks with similar interests to discuss their thoughts. As such it seems to be hugely successful IMHO.

[TheDude]

I checked out The Energy Xchange, after fishing the link out from the list on The Last Drumbeat. Shouldn't the link be on the ASPO front page somewhere? The layout there could use some spiffying up but it's a nice roundup of stories at any rate.

So you're down on "peak oil"? You know, the last thing the US did before peaking was to discover Prudhoe and push past 10 mb/d. Things never looked rosier. Me, I couldn't care less about petty terminology, I just want more data to clear away the fog; will we reach the absolute peak in supply soon? It's sad that you're being phased by what's going on in ND/TX and the attendent op ed rubbish in Market Watch and the WSJ. Just because a bunch of roughnecks discovered that they can poke 33k straws in the ground every year and make some $$$$ doing it doesn't really mean anything if it's going to be an exclusively US phenomenon. Has that question been addressed with any certainty? After all, we've been told that "peak oil" is "garbage" before, because of Kashagan/oil shale/Tupi/UDW/CTL/GTL/KSA megaprojects/ethanol/THAI/etc. And that's just off the top of my head. Is it any surprise that some of the crap they flung at the wall actually stuck?

[Pops]

Well Jan thanks for registering after these almost 10 years to post up some spam advertising your new un-PO site and soliciting our members for donations. Usually such gets deleted might have been nice if you'd asked.


Increasing VOLUME of oil and sorta-oil has you flummoxed, eh? Hasn't the volume been increasing for 150 years? If you think volume is going to continue increasing for another 150 years then what is there to study?
LOL
Maybe your new moniker should be Association for the Study of Business as Usual...


It may be a surprise to you but we've been"studying" a great many aspects of the situation besides volume here for a number of years. A quick search on "economy" here on the site brings up 53,790 hits - no joke!

I'm pretty sure the problem isn't so much with the term peak oil. When I first started looking around the web in '01 or so there were very few hits on PO but now it's a pretty common term that pops up in MSM stories rather often. It is a bumper sticker sound bite that encapsulates the idea of limits perfectly.

I'm pretty sure the problem at TOD and I maybe at ASPO is attempting to quantify the future with an air of authority and certitude that wasn't justified. Take Laharrere's advice and when you make a guess don't use more than 1 or 2 numbers.


Oh and you're welcome. We'll still be here when you're ready to advertise that you're starting a new site about studying the post-peak era. LOL