[Beery1]

If gasoline prices keep rising while wages stay stagnant, given your current income and bills, what is the highest price you could afford to pay for gas and keep doing the things you need a motor vehicle for.

[SeaGypsy]

I went the $50. Be easier to get out of unnecessary trips with a valid reason like $12 a liter.

The question is of course highly unrealistic, as fuel prices directly impact on virtually everything we earn and spend on. Assuming anything like stability in wages and other costs besides fuel is a fool's bet.

[Subjectivist]

I agree with Gypsy that the economy would be very different with much higher prices, but I picked $20.00 because if the economy survived that level I could still do what I have to do travel wise at that cost.

[Pops]

Good thread Beery.

I'm going pretty high and say $20 because we "Need" to use fuel only to go to the store for groceries, the doc once or twice a year and that's about it, which is basically the reason we've not bought a vehicle with better milage. Obviously those trips could be spaced farther and farther apart as the cost rises.

The bigger issue is not the price of fuel at that level but the impact even $10/gal would have on our income and on other costs. At 5 bucks I might see some fall off in income but by $10 I'm pretty sure my income would be impacted substantially and other costs (heating, food) would of course be hit hard as well.

But, at $20 the economy would be virtually dead and so demand for fuel would be just as dead, so sustained prices in the $20/gallon range is way down the far side of the curve barring the appearance of the Great Shark Fin production curve.

--
Also can't forget that fuel used in transporting "stuff" is still increasing even as that used transporting people continues to fall. THis is from EIA's crystal ball (we all know how reliable they are LOL, credit to this blog):

[nocar]

I do not use much gasoline. No car in the household, and we mostly travel by trains, powered by no-fossil electricity (nuclear,hydro and wind). Or bicycle. Of course, we still depend on trucks to deliver food to our grocery store, for example - and I suppose that diesel would go up at the same rate as gasoline. Still, their major cost would still be manpower. As would the occasional taxi that we use. The same for the passenger boat we regularly take to our summer cottage.
The present price of gasoline is between 8 and 9 US dollars per US gallon here in Sweden.

[Ibon]

My fuel costs hauling stuff and tourists up this mountain has been elevated because of the construction which ends March next year. Then fuel requirements are part of operating costs. How much for transport a tourist would be willing to pay is the question that defines how much I would be willing to pay which then leads me to Sea Gypsy's point, how many tourists will there be if fuel costs go that high how expensive are flights to come to Panama to look at birdies and bugs.... hmmmm hard to answer this question.

I would be willing to pay $ 20 a gallon and carefully calculate every trip including buying stuff for all the neighbors that dont have a vehicle and ask them to pitch in on the costs.......

and we do have horses and saddles here and there is a bus down by the main road.....

these are all the considerations...

And one more important one to think about. If the US$ loses its reserve currency status we may very well be paying this much soon for fuel in inflated worthless dollars.....now we have the cheapest fuel.... that will reverse.

[vision-master]

If it reached $10 gal, I just have to sell the car and motorcycle and walk, bicycle or take the bus.

[John_A]

The question is difficult to answer in isolation, because when fuel hits...oh...$6-$7-$8/gallon I probably buy a CNG powered car and stop worrying about gasoline prices. This type of fuel switching, and the GTL plants that will come with it to take advantage of the price spread will put some kind of limit on the natural price of gasoline (natural meaning what the market will bear, versus costing more because of being taxed to the moon like in Europe).

[dinopello]

With my current car and driving, I am sure $10 would not affect my behavior one iota. $20 might start getting me to think especially for longish trips to the country for recreation. Most, if not all my driving is discretionary and there isn't that much of it (especially since my Mom was moved up near me). About 5K miles per year at most.

[John_A]

With my current car and driving, I am sure $10 would not affect my behavior one iota. $20 might start getting me to think especially for longish trips to the country for recreation. Most, if not all my driving is discretionary and there isn't that much of it (especially since my Mom was moved up near me). About 5K miles per year at most.

We should all include current mileage estimates, shouldn't we? That would provide some ancillary information related to maybe why we choose the number we did. Someone who doesn't travel much would be much less affected by a tripling in price.

[Paulo1]

20 dollars but my rural home would be be like a ghost town/valley with every vehicle parked and no activity to speak of. The logging industry would crash as would the fishing industry. Actually, I think just about everything would grind to a halt. Folks that live in the village would probably leave. Most are already quite broke.

I have a couple of 35 year old Honda trail 90s which would be used, but I am thinking of getting something like a 4 stroke 250 in the next while. I live 50 miles from town and we could use it for the odd trip for required supplies. Or, we would carpool with others in the Yaris...combine trips. I scoot around here on an old bicycle or walk. The car and truck is parked most of the time, anyway. For fishing I would probably start kayaking instead of using the skiff. One good thing, the townies would stop coming up with their big-assed boats...f 350s to haul em. I wouldn't mind seeing the end of that.

I think there would be lots of crime, though. People would steal your gas and driving might be dangerous.

Paulo

[ROCKMAN]

Obviously the Rockman could easily afford $50+ given what he does for a living. Oil would be selling for a lot more than it is now. Unfortunately it wouldn't be long before the Rockman again started making his living delivering produce to restaurants just like the last time high oil prices drove the world into recession and collapsed oil prices to almost $10/bbl.

[sunweb]

I could go $20 but would need very little. My area is primarily tourist/summer people with few year round. The area would die back. I would need probably $100 for tractor and garden tractor work. Another $60 worth for snow blowing. My car gets 46 mpg and would drive it little in the winter. I have a honda scooter that gets 60mpg and a old honda 90 that gets 90mpg so summer time would be easy for the little I drive even now.
I also have a still that I could make alcohol probably with root crops.

However, the world would be a very different and hungry place beyond $10 a gallon.

[Timo]

I went for $7.50, mostly because that's the lowest figure that would rationally justify my longing for an electric vehicle. At that cost, the payback would be much quicker, meaning i could talk my wife into the purchase of a new car, our first in over 10 years. We cling to our ICE cars for now, simply because they're both paid for, so no car or mortage payments, at all. I'll make it my new year's resolution to reassemble my old road bike as a commuter, and drive my Tacoma as little as possible. If i were really noble, i'd collect the savings on gas for the next 20 years, enough to buy a new Tesla Model X. That car has Gen X written all over it.

[ROCKMAN]

Timo - Not so simple. Let's say you buy an e-car for $25k. Your old car got 20 mpg. At $7.50/gal your e-car would cost you around 3,300 gallons which would take your paid for ICE almost 70,000 miles. You'll have to insert your avg. yearly mileage. But then there's the hitch: you either have to drop $25k up front or take on a car note plus interest. You pay out period may look good on paper but even if you tote a low note your monthly cash out flow would still be significantly greater than filling up your ICE. And there's the problem for a lot of folks: over 5 - 10 years it might make economic sense on paper but many folks deal with a 30 day cash flow cycle. Yes they save money over many years but in the short term it runs their cost up significantly. Which is why the mpg of the CURRENT fleet of US vehicles has only increased a small fraction of 1% per year for the last decade or so. Last time I saw the number the fleet is 10 years old. Folks like you and me hang on to their cars. You might wait to buy a new car when your current one stops running. But would you give up a functioning acceptable vehicle to drop $25k from your savings or take on a monthly note you haven't had to deal with for years? Having to dish good bit of money in the short term to save money in the long isn't acceptable for many folks.

And then there's folks like me that paid cash for a $17k Kia that gets 23 mpg. A lot easier for me to keep paying a good bit for fuel than buying an e-car. And yes...I dive a vehicle until it's fairly worthless.

[vision-master]

23 mpg is poor in today's world, bad...........

[dolanbaker]

The price of petrol is already around the $10 mark this side of the pond, fuel poverty is common amongst low income workers who rely on cars to get to work.

So for many the cut off point where it's cheaper to quit work and go on the dole is fairly close already.

[Timo]

Rock, good points, and i won't dispute any of what you said. Money is a real, very rational concern when buying and maintaining any new car, but personally, i have a few other reasons for wanting to drive electric other than pure money savings. For starters, i prefer to call it a tad altruistic, but it may be naivete, or perhaps simple stupidity, i am concerned about continuing to burn FFs when other methods of generating and using power are avialable. Driving electric would be a personal milestone in parting with the old status quo, and ushering in a new era of personal, planetary repsonsibility. Call it what you want, but that's just one reason why i want to drive electric. Another reason is electrics cost a whole lot less in maintenance costs over their lifespan than ICE vehicles. Never an oil change, ever again! No more anti-freeze. Plug in at home at night, and no more gas to buy. Install solar, and even that power becomes green, for the car, and a whole lot of other things that need electricity, too. Money is actually a secondary concern for me. In time, i'll be able to buy an electric,vehicle without a loan. That won't be easy, but that's another personal ethic of not going into debt to acquire immediate gratification. I can't do that now, but then again, i'm not in that market, now, either. By the time i am in the market, i realistically expect battery and materials technologies to be miles ahead of where we are, today. And, i expect prices to be lower, too. Couple that with the hypothetical rise in gas prices to $7.50, $10.00, $20.00, or $50.00, and the electric market will be on fire. That can't happen soon enough, IMO.

[Loki]

I chose $10/gal, but it's hard to say for sure. I don't drive all that much, 2500-3000 miles per year in my truck (22 mpg), plus another 1000-2000 on my motorcycle (60+ mpg). If gas went up to $10/gal, I'd be riding my motorcycle a whole lot more.

It's easy enough to quantify the impact of $10/gal gas on my own transportation budget, harder to determine the impact to the wider economy. Would my employer still be in business with $10/gal gas? Not sure....

[ROCKMAN]

Timo - All valid points for sure. So...going to go out this weekend and spend those big bucks? I'm not picking on you...just emphasizing the reality a great many folks face. But if it helps to feed your altruistic heart you can buy one for me too. LOL.

Logic meet check writing. Let the battle begin. BTW all those Texans buying 4X4 pickups that get 16 mpg thank you for your efforts.