JV153 wrote:I'm suspicious of what EIA includes as oil in their reporting these days, but I'm quite sure that US oil production won't hit 9.5 mbarrels/day by 2016 or by 20xx.
The basis for the EIA number comes from first resource estimates, then well and field level results aggregated up, and then the cost competitiveness between various projects (for oil, gas, coal, renewables, etc etc) and then expected demand in relation to GDP growth and the price relationships between the various power and fuel generation types, commercial and residential efficiency and so on and so forth.
Upon what is your estimate based?
ASPO was apparently offered both the model (NEMS) and inputs that they may decide how to do it better and then from ASPO there was then....silence. Apparently their method of just assigning random declines to production just doesn't stack up, or their expertise in model building to figure out these types of issues is lacking, when compared to the DOE's statistic and analytic arm.
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