[Pops]

When we left CA in '04 the old meter was way over on 4, Bubbles, Bubbles Everywhere was my line and including what looked to me like the popping of the civil liberties bubble as well.

The last spike of the old meter was after the great drought of '12. That pretty well scuttled my last plans for growing an irrigated crop of any size here, beyond a kitchen garden that is. The ground water here is just too deep and fluctuates too much to grow typical row crops. I was at 3+

Then last year I guessed in the Price Challenge that the big glut would arrive as promised and prices would tank. My personal economy did well so maybe 2-.

But either I was wrong about there being a glut on the way or I was early or maybe the glut did arrive but was exported to the EU. And now, the EIA of all people says LTO is just a flash in the pan and the US will be back to decline in a few years. Kopits kinda freaked me out too with the news that not just the oil majors are pulling back on their investment in new production but so are the NOCs and the WSJ says 80 "big oil companies" in the US invested less in 2013 and foreign investment is petering out as well

It seems to me this is a biggie and I'd guess territory we've not covered before: record high prices with falling E&P expenditures. Unless there is just huge amounts of cheap oil about to flow from every gopher hole, if the OilCos don't continually reinvest the big bucks the supply has nowhere to go but down.

If the economy heats up at the same time spare capacity is falling (and exports declining) we will have another big price spike at the least. Which will be very bad news for a global economy finally shaking off the effects of the ponzi credit fiasco. The US and global economy actually looks to be moving off the dime at least the stock markets' all-time highs want us to believe as much (never mind the current jag is fueled by free money - leverage in the markets is at an all-time high) then it is pretty well inevitable we'll have at least another recession.

. . .

I vowed last years we would decide if we would stay here in the Ozarks for the duration or perhaps go on some new adventure. I'd think the time to jump would be soon if we are going to jump.

So the meter is jittering past 2, maybe 3 before long.


Give your old meter a couple of taps and report your measurement.
.

P.S. you may change your reading at any time throughout the year

[Tanada]

That Kopits paper you linked too earlier along with my long term unemployment and the crazy weather gyrations around these parts has my meter popping back and forth between 3 and 4. Today I am at a 4 because of health issues and really crud weather outside conspiring to give me cabin fever.

I think you are better off staying where you are Pops, I moved to this edge of the field house back in 2010 cause I though things would fall apart in 2011 and so far I have not regretted that decision. Now is the time IMO to hunker down, not hare off on a new adventure. Of course that is just my opinion, take it for what its worth lol.

[Loki]

My doomometer is reading around 2.5, could be worse, could be better. I think we in the US will trudge along in our rut, Oilfinder's 5% recovery proceeding apace while large sections of the population are left behind. I'm not predicting any big events in 2014, but I think there's a better chance than not of another oil price spike and financial crash by 2020.

Europe is an interesting variable. Staniford had a good post on Europe's “recovery” and potential impacts on oil price.

This ongoing weakness in the European economy has material implications for the balance of global oil markets.  Here is OECD European oil consumption (according to the EIA) over this period since 2005:



This is out of about 85-91 mbd or so of global liquid fuel production during this period.  If Europe had recovered strongly after the great recession, we might conjecture that consumption would be back to 15-16 mbd, instead of being 13-14 mbd.  Global prices would probably be noticeably higher in consequence.

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2013/12/i ... g-yet.html

[Subjectivist]

I chose 3 because I am basically optimistically pessemistic by nature. That being said I think a kleptocracy is in our future. It seems to be the pattern for governments to fall under the influence of the special pleaders, after that the special interest groups grow more and more dominant until all is corruption.

[Paulo1]

I chose #2 because I feel things could be worse. Yes, they could always be better, but things could certainly be worse.

This is why I feel this way.

I have not been able to comprehend why things keep muddling along as long as they have? I see the debt, the malfeasance, the lying and corruption, the simple dishonest ineptitude, and simply cannot believe we are not crashing in a way that is obvious to Joe Blow on the street. So, I have to accept that maybe we'll limp along for awhile yet? Perhaps extreme weather events will trigger more acknowledgement that humans are soiling their nest and that we must change, but if a cliff hasn't happened yet, there is no reason to assume it will any time soon.

It's kind of like a person's health and happiness. You don't realize how great you have it until something goes wrong. Like pain issues, or other health issues. All of a sudden you hurt and are messed up and you think, (I think)..."man, this is terrible. Why didn't I enjoy last week more when I was feeling good"? I think we are still living like last week....for the most part.

For those currently suffering unemployment and health issues, I wish you a recovery and reset. I know what it is like when life turns shitty for awhile. I hope things improve for you, soon. I just spent all morning in a meeting about my mother-in-law's mental decline with a health specialist. Then, we met with my father-in-law about his upcoming cancer surgery. I returned home resigned to being involved with their struggles and health decline, but thankful my role stops where it does and for my wife's and my current health. It could be worse.

Paulo

[Newfie]

I voted 3, could be better.

The scared kid inside is screaming "No, no...4.7 at least"

[Loki]

I have not been able to comprehend why things keep muddling along as long as they have? I see the debt, the malfeasance, the lying and corruption, the simple dishonest ineptitude, and simply cannot believe we are not crashing in a way that is obvious to Joe Blow on the street. So, I have to accept that maybe we'll limp along for awhile yet?

Society at large, at least in the US, has proven far more resilient than many had anticipated. We certainly have our fair share of social dysfunctions in the US, but these often blind us to the resiliency of our society.

There is also an enormous amount of inertia in the global economic system and the world's central banks have been paddling madly to keep the old ship going. They've been surprisingly effective, at least thus far. We'll see what happens when Mommy takes Baby's candy away.

Still, we're in danger of dying a death by a thousand cuts. A flaccid recovery, secular stagnation, the long-term decline of the middle class, political ineptitude, a series of increasingly expensive “natural” disasters, and, of course, peak oil. None of these factors alone will cause “the crash,” but together they will result in some worrying short-term emergencies and the long-term decline of our civilization.

Long-term decline is cooked into the books, as far as I'm concerned, more interesting will be the short-term emergencies. I can't see how we're going to possibly avoid another financial panic, but we've proven we can blow bubbles for many years before they pop. I think the next short-term emergency is likely to be an oil shock in one form or another, probably in the next 2-3 years. It may be the catalyst for an even deeper financial panic (the Greater Recession) or it may just add one more cut to the thousand.

[Tanada]

I voted 3, could be better.

The scared kid inside is screaming "No, no...4.7 at least"

Thanks for the smile Newfie

[seahorse3]

I suggest the world as we know it has already changed to meet the next crisis, we just don't realize it bc perception, political and economic perception, is a lagging indicator. We have wars in the ME since 2001, we have all kinds of new "anti-terrorism" laws like the Patriot Act and the Military Commissions Act to name a few. We have DHS, a new more powerful NSA, all of which put in place a stronger more centralized federal government necessary to "ration" assets- it's simply not the same "democracy" of a generation ago because times have changed. Out economy has already changed too- too big to faileams that capitalism exists only in name. Do our political and economic system have already changed, because times have changed, but our perception is a lagging indicator. We still use words like capitalism and democracy that no longer have their traditional meanings. We have a wider economic disparity than ever and more people on food stamps than ever, but we think things will get better, that we will return to our political traditions, traditional growth rates, traditional interest rates, tradition unemployment rates, but we won't bc we can't. We can't return to our past bc times have changed, our old political and economic models have changed permanently with the changing energy fundamentals. I don't know what this means, less to go around for sure, that's not necessarily a bad thing

[rollin]

Just picture civilization as a car (pick your favorite old junker) out of control, skidding into a sharp turn just before a cliff. If you just look at the car it doesn't look too bad, maybe a dent or two from previous hits, some rust but still operational, still intact. It's the scenery outside that is frightening and the lack of control as the tires are sliding. You should not be seeing the inside wall through the windshield.
The economy (the engine) is still rumbling along with some misfires, but still going. The brakes (the new knowledge and the environmental/ sustainability/transistion movement) are not doing much to slow the vehicle. In fact the engine seems to want to increase speed.
That outside frightening view (the crashing environment, the looming descent of fuels, the continuing extinction event, and climate changes) is not sinking into many of the passengers who are asleep in the back seat or busy playing games waiting for that ice cream stop.

The velocity was built up over the last few hundred years with the pedal being stomped on in the late 1800's. Only lately has the left foot pressed on the brakes while the right still stomps on the accelerator. Too bad the brakes are bad.

The economy growing or shrinking has little effect on final outcome at this point, inertia has taken over and control is lost. We are still intact and haven't crashed yet so things may seem alright, just don't look down the road.

[SeaGypsy]

Great visual metaphor Rollin
"The engine is bad, but the brakes are worse, the driver is autistic and mesmerized, the kids have a whole other world in front of them on the back of the front seat head rests..." The front seat passenger is screaming "Stop!" (since "slow down" hasn't been working too well) to which the driver (hitherto racing to the mythical land of ice cream and unicorns) responds- :"I can't" Wooshing, screeching, time slows right down and speeds up at the same instant...

[Paulo1]

re:
"The economy growing or shrinking has little effect on final outcome at this point, inertia has taken over and control is lost. We are still intact and haven't crashed yet so things may seem alright, just don't look down the road."

reread the posts and Rollin aand Lokis mention of inertia made me think about the small events that occasionally occur which, only in hindsight, are key pivots. I am not talking about the 'butterfly' concept, but actual triggers. What comes to mind is an orbiting spacecraft or satellite. There is an attraction inertia, orbit velocity, but left unchanged the orbit eventually degrades and the aircraft burns up in atmosphere. Or, as my layman mind imagines, a small retro rocket fires which is just enough to nudge the works into the beginning of rapid re-entry. If the aircraft is not protected, prepared, it ofcourse burns up pronto. It seems we are in a degrading orbit and the 'old boys' are not really in control. There's a lot of scurrying around and desperate fixes, but we know how this movie is going to play out.

Changing my vote to a 2-4 and an "I just don't know, anymore."

Paulo

[rollin]

SeaGypsy said
"The engine is bad, but the brakes are worse, the driver is autistic and mesmerized, the kids have a whole other world in front of them on the back of the front seat head rests..." The front seat passenger is screaming "Stop!" (since "slow down" hasn't been working too well) to which the driver (hitherto racing to the mythical land of ice cream and unicorns) responds- :"I can't" Wooshing, screeching, time slows right down and speeds up at the same instant...

Good one. And if that car is an old 60's Impala there could be a lot of people in the trunk with no view and without a clue.

[careinke]

I voted 4. We were lucky last year.

Oceans dieing
Climate extremes
Accelerated worldwide CO2 emissions
The Sixth Mass extinction progressing orders of magnitude faster than most previous extinctions
Strong possibility of coming down off the PO plateau
Crop failures
Debt crisis
Orwellian governments
Ignoring the constitution
With no possibility of our politicians fixing any of this.

Something will break, you can't roll sevens forever.

[MD]

80+% in the could be worse/better category.

Yep, we're coasting along. As long as the nervous "great leaders" of the world refrain from going postal we should be good for a while yet.

[Timo]

I see i remain the only 5 amongst the bunch. Back in my younger years, i was an eternal optimist, but that wealth of optimism quickly started to wane when i hit the real world. Resiliancy amongst parts of the population will remain, but not enough amongst the growing realm of completely voluntary ignorants across all corners of the globe to make much of a difference. I read a headline yesterday that (in the US) defeating the opposition is now a business for Republicans, while for Democrats, it's a cause. Willful and well-funded, reinforced ignorance will end up winning the day. Unfortunately, that will be the end of days for a whole freakin' lot of our planet. But, who cares?! Right? Right now, i view optimism as wishful thinking. I have hope, but not much optimism at all.

[Duende]

My doom-o-meter is burned out. Has been since late 2011. At some point I just recognized that collectively society will never 'get it' and this is going to play out as a slow burn that nobody recognizes for what it truly is: stairstep decline.

Each 'doom' event will signify another stairstep down - but each event will be experienced discretely by specific locales and individuals at a time. This process is nefarious and distracts our society from seeing the bigger picture.

Now I frame all information in terms of actionable items (or not). For instance, if I read about the fragility of the banking system, the actionable takeaway is "get out of debt". I've stopped worrying about not-actionable information because it is beyond my control. This has done wonders for my sanity.

So, I guess what I'm saying is that doom is assured over time. There's no use worrying about the details of how it's going down specifically. All we can do individually is take action to the degree we are able based on the information we have and leave the rest to their own devices.

[Lore]

Things change, always and frequently, not necessarily for the better either. The human species has had a good run for the last 150 years or so. Although we've paid for it by buying heavily into our future. In the end, as they say, we're all dead anyway. Not very satisfying though to realize that we're taking it all with us in a figurative and rather real manner.

Its mass delusion to think our fragile energy independent technology will have us consuming ever more on a finite planet. That some magic will appear and keep us on the path to more stuff when we hit the wall. I fear the sixth extinction though will include ourselves at our current rate. We're not proving to be a better species, just one more, in a long line.