[M_B_S]

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 ... 92280.html


By
William Boston And

Matthew Curtin
connect



Updated Jan. 16, 2014 3:00 a.m. ET

BERLIN—European car sales fell for the sixth straight year in 2013, despite a pickup in registrations in the final months of the year that sparked hope of a broader recovery in the region.

The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, known as ACEA, said Thursday that 11.9 million new cars were registered in the European Union last year, a decline of 1.7% compared with the previous year. The performance marks the industry's worst year since ACEA began collecting EU data in 2003***************************
******************************************

Europe is still in crisis mode.

PEAK OIL crude world was 2005-2006

Germanys oil imports decline ~ 2% in 2013


http://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com/ ... s-4141632/


Main Reason:
http://crudeoilpeak.info/fsu-crude-oil- ... st-2-years

http://blogs.wsj.com/emergingeurope/201 ... car-sales/

[Plantagenet]

Thanks to their high taxes the EU countries now have the most expensive gasoline and NG prices in the world

It's not surprising the auto sector and the rest of the economy in the EU is still struggling given their policy of putting very high taxes on energy

[Ibon]

I can't help but see this partially as design rather than default.

- Major European cities redesigned their city centers to pedestrians and bike traffic closing many roads to vehicles

- fuel taxes going into financing public transportation expansion which was already some of the best in the world.

- An increasingly frugal citizenry; a mix of cultural values together with economic decline

This decline is dwarfed by the expansion of vehicle purchases in China and other BRIC countries. Manufacturers are targeting those markets.

[Plantagenet]

I'm a great admirer of the EU (just back from 6 weeks in holland Denmark and France etc) and I love the EU commitment to bikes and mass transit Nonetheless their economic policies aren't working very well. Six years of recession and unacceptably high youth unemployment show that

So what is wrong in the EU economy?

IMHO energy is the key factor in modern economies, and EU tax policies designed to increase the cost of auto fuel to encourage mass transit also have negative consequences for auto sales, the chemical biz, agriculture, etc

The EU has the highest gas and NG prices in the world and some of the weakest economic performance.

Coincidence? I think not.

[Simon_R]

Hi Plantagenet

We are not doing so badly

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internatio ... old_Income

not growing but ...... we are on the whole mature economies (and a few basket cases)

Agriculture uses on the whole red (duty free) deisel I cannot argue for other industries though.

We also have HUGE social charges for employing people, this is contributory, its not a silver bullet, but cheaper energy would certainly not hurt

Simon

[rollin]

The problem appears to be economic rather than a change in auto ownership. Surveying the Eurostat statistics on motorisation , the number of cars per 1.000 inhabitants appears to be either stable or rising for the various countries. A number of countries had ownership of cars per 1,000 people increase significantly (greater than 10%) from the 1991 to 2011 data.

I think people are getting a skewed idea of European travel, thinking that most travel is public transport. Here are the numbers from the Eurostat for surface travel in 2011 (passenger -km).
Car 84.1%
Trains 7.1%
Motor coaches, trolleys, and buses 8.8%

So in reality the major mode of surface transport is clearly the passenger car by a large margin. Europe may have a better public transport system than the US, but that is very easy to do since US public transport is minimal or non-existent except in large metro areas.

In conclusion, the Europeans are not buying as many new cars but are certainly keeping their older ones and still using them for the majority of surface travel.

[yellowcanoe]

I'm a great admirer of the EU (just back from 6 weeks in holland Denmark and France etc) and I love the EU commitment to bikes and mass transit Nonetheless their economic policies aren't working very well. Six years of recession and unacceptably high youth unemployment show that

So what is wrong in the EU economy?

IMHO energy is the key factor in modern economies, and EU tax policies designed to increase the cost of auto fuel to encourage mass transit also have negative consequences for auto sales, the chemical biz, agriculture, etc

The EU has the highest gas and NG prices in the world and some of the weakest economic performance.

Coincidence? I think not.

I think the fact that almost all European countries have to import 100% of the oil and natural gas they use is a major reason why their economies are doing so poorly. They simply cannot afford to have that much money flowing out of their economy and subsequently consumption must drop. Countries that are able to supply some of their oil and gas internally are doing better.

It is somewhat disturbing to see Europe in this situation when they have been making efforts to reduce their consumption of imported oil for many decades. That was the reason for high taxes on fuel -- it discouraged consumption and ensured that most people bought small, fuel efficient cars.

[dolanbaker]

Car sales in Ireland.
New cars sold each month.


Don't get too excited as Ireland has "age" plates so every six months there is a surge of sales.

[steve from virginia]

Underway is the death ride of the European auto industry. In five years it will no longer exist. In ten years there will be no auto industry anywhere, nor an overseas shipping or airline industry, either.

Europe is being de-carred one country at a time, by the most brutal and destructive manner possible. Except for Denmark and Norway, the balance of European countries (ex-Russia) are fuel importers. What they export to gain the fuels is cars. They have no other way to pay (maybe over the shortest term with gold).

There is no return on the use of the cars for the users, their cost and that of fuel must be met with debt. This is why the Europeans are massively over-indebted along with their trading partners. When Europe exports cars it exports its bankruptcy at the same time, eventually its trading partners are unable to pay.

In order to meet the cost of its massive auto fleet, Europeans are stupidly jettisoning everything that represents a competing claim, yet are core institutions of European society including jobs, pensions, education, functioning governments, state assets, cultural programs, etc. Yet the car-, fuel- and credit driven costs cannot be met. More is thrown into the furnace until nothing is left. Greece is the best and first example, bankrupted by its unaffordable auto fleet; its citizens short of food and heat for their houses, a country fallen into the hands of violent, hate-driven Nazis and gangsters; a war in Greece looks certain to follow, the country annihilated by its cars.

As long as one car runs in any of these countries which must include France, Germany and the UK ... the economies will continually unravel; not merely bankrupted but totally destroyed. The end game in Europe, without jettisoning the useless and guzzling cars, is the continent ravaged like Yugoslavia filled with corpses and refugees ... and burned out car factories.

The Slav lesson is being re-taught in Syria and Egypt right now. To paraphrase Warren Buffett; 'There's car warfare, all right, but it's the cars that are making war, and they're winning.'

[dolanbaker]

Underway is the death ride of the European auto industry. In five years it will no longer exist. In ten years there will be no auto industry anywhere, nor an overseas shipping or airline industry, either.

Europe is being de-carred one country at a time, by the most brutal and destructive manner possible. Except for Denmark and Norway, the balance of European countries (ex-Russia) are fuel importers. What they export to gain the fuels is cars. They have no other way to pay (maybe over the shortest term with gold).

There is no return on the use of the cars for the users, their cost and that of fuel must be met with debt. This is why the Europeans are massively over-indebted along with their trading partners. When Europe exports cars it exports its bankruptcy at the same time, eventually its trading partners are unable to pay.

In order to meet the cost of its massive auto fleet, Europeans are stupidly jettisoning everything that represents a competing claim, yet are core institutions of European society including jobs, pensions, education, functioning governments, state assets, cultural programs, etc. Yet the car-, fuel- and credit driven costs cannot be met. More is thrown into the furnace until nothing is left. Greece is the best and first example, bankrupted by its unaffordable auto fleet; its citizens short of food and heat for their houses, a country fallen into the hands of violent, hate-driven Nazis and gangsters; a war in Greece looks certain to follow, the country annihilated by its cars.

As long as one car runs in any of these countries which must include France, Germany and the UK ... the economies will continually unravel; not merely bankrupted but totally destroyed. The end game in Europe, without jettisoning the useless and guzzling cars, is the continent ravaged like Yugoslavia filled with corpses and refugees ... and burned out car factories.

The Slav lesson is being re-taught in Syria and Egypt right now. To paraphrase Warren Buffett; 'There's car warfare, all right, but it's the cars that are making war, and they're winning.'

A severe exaggeration there, car usage is changing from a "want" to a "need" here.

In other words people don't buy cars to have one they only buy them if there is no alternative and in most places there isn't any viable public transport. Cars will be around for a good while and so will car makers, but far fewer than today because al the cheap cars are being made in SE Asia these days.

[Ulenspiegel]

I'm a great admirer of the EU (just back from 6 weeks in holland Denmark and France etc) and I love the EU commitment to bikes and mass transit Nonetheless their economic policies aren't working very well. Six years of recession and unacceptably high youth unemployment show that

So what is wrong in the EU economy?

IMHO energy is the key factor in modern economies, and EU tax policies designed to increase the cost of auto fuel to encourage mass transit also have negative consequences for auto sales, the chemical biz, agriculture, etc

The EU has the highest gas and NG prices in the world and some of the weakest economic performance.

Coincidence? I think not.

You make correlations which do not survive closer inspection.

Some countries with very high fuel taxes like Austria and Germany are doing better than the USA, with your (lack of) logic, you only have to increase taxes in the USA and everything is ok.

The point you completely miss is, that not the taxes are the issue, but what has been done with them. In some countries these high taxes have led to clear advantages in other fields - my daughter will not graduate university with a huge debt load and our family has a very good and affordable health care plan most people in some countries with "affordable" energy can only dream of.

The next aspect of high energy prices is, that industrial production is much more energy efficient in these countries, a clear advantage on the global market, especially when the global prices for energy increase, this hit low price countries more than high price countries.

[Plantagenet]

Some countries with very high fuel taxes like Austria and Germany are doing better than the USA)

You've got your facts wrong. Germany is doing far worse than the USA. Germany is almost in recession with GDP growth of only 0.3-0.25% while the US is growing 8-10x faster

German economy slowing

When you get the most basic facts completely wrong it detracts from your posts

[Quinny]

France introduced an ECO tax - on the face of it a move to prevent excess transportation of goods, but it wasn't fully considered and has absolutely hammered the rural economy. Carried to the extreme you'd end up with an empty rural France and everyone living and working in the cities! Industries are closing left right and centre and there are mass protests taking place - see the Bonnet Rouge movement below. The demonstration might not seem that large, but it's in a relatively small town (pop about 650000) so 30000 people is pretty significant!

Demonstration in Quimper
http://quimper.letelegramme.fr/local/finistere-sud/quimper/ville/manifestation-de-quimper-des-milliers-de-bonnets-rouges-vont-defiler-pour-l-emploi-02-11-2013-2290092.php?xtmc=bonnet%2520rouge&xtcr=10

[Fishman]

And Pstarr's love of all things Obama obstructs the blood flow to his frontal lobe...
Ulen, quoting Germany's economy is a sinking Europe doesn't make much of an arguement. Greece's universal health system is in complete collapse. Germany only does a little better than your neighbors because you've been less flamboyant spending those tax dollars. We're trying to catch up with your disasterous European economy with our overspending

[AndyA]

Well, let's not forget that 11.9 million new cars WERE added last year. It's only the rate of growth that is slowing, not the amount of cars. Hardly the deathbell for auto makers. Hardly even worth getting excited about.

PEAK OIL crude world was not 2005-2006, you need to check the data and reassess your opinion based on the facts, not interpret the facts based on your opinion.

The German biofuel consumption market had total revenues of $8,862.7m in 2012, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.5% between 2008 and 2012.Market consumption volume increased with a CAGR of 3.4% between 2008 and 2012, to reach a total of 27.6 million barrels in 2012.The performance of the market is forecast to accelerate, with an anticipated CAGR of 4.9% for the five-year period 2012 - 2017, which is expected to drive the market to a value of $11,232.8 million by the end of 2017.

http://store.marketline.com/Product/germany_biofuel_consumption?productid=MLIP1024-0011
I'm not sure how much offset you get from biofuel imports, but clearly some of the decline in oil imports can be placed here.

[frankthetank]

Good for Europe. I would imagine living in a bigger city in any one of those countries would be easily survivable with only a bicycle and some good walking shoes. With Passivhaus building standards, you can have a home that uses almost no energy or actually produces more then it uses. Some areas of Europe (Spain/S France/etc) probably require no heating and very little AC (if near the ocean)... Sounds like heaven to me.

[M_B_S]

http://crudeoilpeak.info/latest-graphs

The fracking boom in the USA is over!

No more profits for the share holders no more money for the enterprises.

German FAZ

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/finanzen/dev ... 53461.html

WJS:

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 ... 3108494214

For U.S. Drillers, the Days of Easy Money End

Oil and Gas Companies Slash Spending as Foreign Investment Dries Up

[dolanbaker]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25755834
New car registrations in the European Union fell 1.7% in 2013, largely thanks to a sales slump in Italy and France.

The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) said 11.8 million new cars were sold across the region, about 200,000 fewer than in the previous year.

But the decline was much less than the 8.2% fall recorded in 2012 - the sector's worst result for 18 years.

Italy's new car sales fell 7.1%, while France's fell 5.7%.

Struggling French manufacturer PSA Peugeot Citroen continued its decline, with sales falling 8.4%. But Renault bucked the French trend, achieving a 4.4% rise in sales.

Italy's Fiat, which recently took over US number three carmaker Chrysler, suffered a 7.1% fall.

Even Germany, the EU's strongest economy, saw sales slide 4.2%, says the ACEA.

By contrast, the UK was buoyant, with sales rising 10.8%, boosted in particular by a strong performance from Tata-owned Jaguar Land Rover.

I am expecting the decline to level off soon and a small amount of growth after that as a lot of older vehicles are replaced. At the moment, there is a glut of 8-15 year old cars on the market and a shortage of good second hand cars 2-7 years old. Most newer cars are "A" class as far as CO2 emissions are concerned where as most older cars are "C" or lower.

[Ulenspiegel]

Some countries with very high fuel taxes like Austria and Germany are doing better than the USA)

You've got your facts wrong. Germany is doing far worse than the USA. Germany is almost in recession with GDP growth of only 0.3-0.25% while the US is growing 8-10x faster

German economy slowing

When you get the most basic facts completely wrong it detracts from your posts

You are a clown, the German per capita growth is achieved with balanced/positive budget. Add the 5% you only get with increased debt in God's own country and you have a more realistic picture. Comparison of uncorrected GDP data is stupid.