[M_B_S]

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... scompanies

US Army colonel: world is sleepwalking to a global energy crisis

The dialogue opened with a presentation by Mark C. Lewis, former head of energy research at Deutsche Bank's commodities unit, who highlighted three interlinked problems facing the global energy system: "very high decline rates" in global production; "soaring" investment requirements "to find new oil"; and since 2005, "falling exports of crude oil globally."

Lewis told participants that the International Energy Agency's (IEA) own "comprehensive" analysis in its World Energy Outlook of the 1,600 fields providing 70% of today's global oil supply, show "an observed decline rate of 6.2%" - double the IEA's stated estimate of future decline rate out to 2035 of about 3%.
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We ever knew...... and you to if you read this blog

Peak Oil

75*0,938^n , n=15
=> 28 mb/d in 2030 2/3 crude production is lost in only 15 years.

M_B_S

[Plantagenet]

Peak Oil ------ it's BACK!

[ROCKMAN]

P - It looks that way. Of course, for some of us, it was never gone. But it may get shoved back into the basement soon like Ross Perot's crazy aunt is we see a slide in prices when Iran, Libya, Iraq, et al started adding to supplies. But eventually we'll sneak out of the basement carrying our "We Told You So" signs held high. LOL.

[Lore]

And because we told them so, everyone will be so happy, they will award us all with medals. I hope mine is a shinny gold one!

[Tanada]

P - It looks that way. Of course, for some of us, it was never gone. But it may get shoved back into the basement soon like Ross Perot's crazy aunt is we see a slide in prices when Iran, Libya, Iraq, et al started adding to supplies. But eventually we'll sneak out of the basement carrying our "We Told You So" signs held high. LOL.

I think Iraq is a big question mark for the next decade because of sectarian violence there. As for Iran I am confident China has been working hard to tie up their future exports, based on things Rockman has posted and just looking at who was trading with them during the so called embargo. Libya? Sectarian violence and extreme instability...need I type more?

[Lore]

P - It looks that way. Of course, for some of us, it was never gone. But it may get shoved back into the basement soon like Ross Perot's crazy aunt is we see a slide in prices when Iran, Libya, Iraq, et al started adding to supplies. But eventually we'll sneak out of the basement carrying our "We Told You So" signs held high. LOL.

I think Iraq is a big question mark for the next decade because of sectarian violence there. As for Iran I am confident China has been working hard to tie up their future exports, based on things Rockman has posted and just looking at who was trading with them during the so called embargo. Libya? Sectarian violence and extreme instability...need I type more?

What about Africa?

[Tanada]

P - It looks that way. Of course, for some of us, it was never gone. But it may get shoved back into the basement soon like Ross Perot's crazy aunt is we see a slide in prices when Iran, Libya, Iraq, et al started adding to supplies. But eventually we'll sneak out of the basement carrying our "We Told You So" signs held high. LOL.

I think Iraq is a big question mark for the next decade because of sectarian violence there. As for Iran I am confident China has been working hard to tie up their future exports, based on things Rockman has posted and just looking at who was trading with them during the so called embargo. Libya? Sectarian violence and extreme instability...need I type more?

What about Africa?

I don't know enough about Nigeria, but in Sudan and Somalia sectarian/tribal violence is is preventing any effective extraction of oil. What do you think is going on or will be going on Lore?

[rollin]

Warnings are great, but I don't see any concentrated effort even though the Army has known about this for a long time. The world is not sleepwalking into a global energy crises. The authorities have been informed for years now and have mostly decided to keep BAU. Without some leadership and some action, the general public will take the warnings with a grain of salt.

[ROCKMAN]

Lore - IMHO Africa is one huge unknown. Seems like every month we hear about new oil/NG potential developing there especially outside of the edge along the Med. But add that potential for huge wealth and the general political/ethnic instability of those regions and I can easily see conditions getting much more brutal over here. Life was pretty rough before there were $trillions put on the table. Difficult to imagine control over those riches won't make life much worse for millions then it already is. By analogy I see the African situation with their new fossil fuel riches similar to those countries where illegal drugs have become a major portion of their GNP. A lot of pain and sorrow has come along with that money.

[Keith_McClary]

dDifficult to imagine control over those riches won't make life much worse for millions then it already is. By analogy I see the African situation with their new fossil fuel riches similar to those countries where illegal drugs have become a major portion of their GNP. A lot of pain and sorrow has come along with that money.

Why not an analogy with what happened decades ago when the ME had new fossil fuel riches? The imperial powers made "strategic alliances" with the Sultans and Settlers, whose descendants we know and love today.

[KaiserJeep]

It occurs to me that oil on the open market will be bought by the high bidder - the US, another developed Western nation, or China. Oil that remains unpumped due to unrest in the Middle East will eventually be sold for more money than if sold today. The trick is to remain intact as a nation with armed forces when everything else goes to seed.

Meanwhile, the US Army has been re-inventing itself as a low power infantry force. Camps and even individual soldiers can deploy solar and wind chargers and all essential electronics can be run on alternative sources.

There is not of course much hope that tanks, artillery, or aircraft can run on alternative energy. However, we can scrape up a few gallons of gasoline to run a drone armed with Hellfire missiles, not a bad alternative.

I'm confident that when the oil gets pumped, the US gets most of it.

[Keith_McClary]

I'm confident that when the oil gets pumped, the US gets most of it.

They'll need it since they're doing such a good job of pumping every drop of their own.

[steve from virginia]

These periodic reports from the (US) military serve notice that the institution has prior claims against all available oil ... everywhere in the world.

Since the flop in Iraq, US military strategy has been to export instability so as to import consumption. This is not from what the military says but an observation of what the military does. The US doctrine has shifted away from large units fighting conventional battles operating from ships toward deploying commandos and robotic aircraft, operating from in-theater bases.

Comes now the bosses saying, "Peak Oil". It's very self-justifying ... along with other noise about "terrorism" and the need to listen in to everyone's phone calls and read everyone's e-mails.

Sadly, the US military establishment since 1945 a self-perpetuating failure machine. The instability export doctrine is working to the point of unraveling supply along with consumption ... which in turn is falling in the US (trend) along with targeted countries. Instead of 'repeat stupid' from the policy bosses, the US would be better served by instituting stringent domestic conservation instead.

All this is very similar to what Dick Vodra suggested a couple of years ago, "US energy policy is the Patriot Act."

[dorlomin]

Since the flop in Iraq,

The invasion did not flop from a military or resource perspective. It merely flopped as an act of political propoganda for the incumbent at the time.

With minimal casualties the US removed Iraqi oil from a capricious, nationalistic dictator and returned it to the international markets with a government massively reliant on the US for support and the oil for income. The US wanted to ensure that the oil would flow, that US companies are not benefiting from it may matter to those companies but not the wider picture of US interest. The US and world economy is now much less vulnerable to a politically inspired blockade of Iraqi oil while the US navy easily controls most of the choke points so in the end still controls who can get the oil.

US military strategy has been to export instability so as to import consumption.

That is just a fantasy. Other than, the major ME oil exporters cannot afford to lose the income streams of blocking their oil so its in the US interest to promote stability in those countries.

[Pops]

It costs 1-2 million dollars per year to field one soldier in Afghanistan.

Do you think they are worried about the cost of fuel? LOL

It is body count not miles per gallon that keeps planners up at night. They will spend any amount to keep the names and faces of dead soldiers off the nightly news.

[ralfy]

This video argues that the Iraq invasion involved the need to protect the petro-dollar:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HP7L8bw5QF4

About the military and peak oil, one can try JOE 2010:

http://www.fas.org/man/eprint/joe2010.pdf

[AirlinePilot]

Go back 10 years, or even 5 and look at the predictions for Iraqi production. Look at what Libya, Nigeria and any other shithole country SHOULD be producing according to their reserve claims and the predictions from folks at the EIA, IEA et al.

Its not a pretty picture. My personal opinion is that hoping miraculous things happen in the ME is a pipe dream. Sectarian violence and the inability of local governments to rise above tribalism and corruption spells nothing short of disaster for long term oil production from quite a few of these Oil rich nations.

Remember also that the USA can no longer remain the global policeman. With its slow withdrawal from a lot of these areas forced by budgetary constraints at home how does anyone believe that anything approaching stability can exist given hundreds if not thousands of years of tribal and religious angst in these oil rich nations?

I suspect that a lot of oil in those countries will just never reach the markets. As we move down the road of decreasing GNE that paradigm gets worse IMHO. The reality is the infrastructure and capital required will never make it there because the risks will be too great from both a financial and humanitarian standpoint.

I believe we are moving towards the Energy Trap a lot of folks have talked about in the not too distant past, when PO was a bit more on the front page than it is now. You run out of time requiring a robust and thriving economy to ALLOW the exploitation of the reserves. I have always believed that is where we are headed......still a bit down the road, but it seems to me to be shaping up nicely as we begin to realize the GNE problems and the lack of economic growth which partly has as its cause the high cost of oil.

Interesting times to be sure.

[Subjectivist]

Go back 10 years, or even 5 and look at the predictions for Iraqi production. Look at what Libya, Nigeria and any other shithole country SHOULD be producing according to their reserve claims and the predictions from folks at the EIA, IEA et al.

Its not a pretty picture. My personal opinion is that hoping miraculous things happen in the ME is a pipe dream. Sectarian violence and the inability of local governments to rise above tribalism and corruption spells nothing short of disaster for long term oil production from quite a few of these Oil rich nations.

Remember also that the USA can no longer remain the global policeman. With its slow withdrawal from a lot of these areas forced by budgetary constraints at home how does anyone believe that anything approaching stability can exist given hundreds if not thousands of years of tribal and religious angst in these oil rich nations?

I suspect that a lot of oil in those countries will just never reach the markets. As we move down the road of decreasing GNE that paradigm gets worse IMHO. The reality is the infrastructure and capital required will never make it there because the risks will be too great from both a financial and humanitarian standpoint.

I believe we are moving towards the Energy Trap a lot of folks have talked about in the not too distant past, when PO was a bit more on the front page than it is now. You run out of time requiring a robust and thriving economy to ALLOW the exploitation of the reserves. I have always believed that is where we are headed......still a bit down the road, but it seems to me to be shaping up nicely as we begin to realize the GNE problems and the lack of economic growth which partly has as its cause the high cost of oil.

Interesting times to be sure.

Years ago Larry Niven the author put out a list of his favorite sayings in an essay that I read. I don't have it in front of me right now but the essence that stuck with me is "it is easier to destroy than to create, so for civilization to function the vast majority of people have to not break things faster than others can build them"

Like I said it isn't an exact quote but I think it exactly describes what you are talking about. In places where instability exists there will never be maximum practical extraction rates because some side in the squabble will work to prevent it, and prevention is much easier than production.