by rockdoc123 » Tue 11 Apr 2017, 11:51:58
The situation with the majors in Canada has happened time and time again. They have left and then returned in one shape or form a couple of times in the past and I suspect it will happen again. Once they see higher prices and the ability to consolidate a bunch of small players then you can bet they will open their wallets once again. At this point if you put yourself in the shoes of a major's CEO his choice is to continue to invest in Alberta where the crude price is discounted and there is a anti-oil and gas provincial and federal government in place who have exacerbated the problems faced with the drop in price or instead take your money and double down in the US where the new gov't is pro-industry. But in four years time who knows what it will look like. Alberta will almost certainly toss the NDP (who won by default) out on their entitled backsides and elect a more pro-industry provincial gov't. On a Federal level it is harder to predict but I suspect everyone is getting a bit fed up with the empty suit in Ottawa. If the sentiment in the US switches and you suddenly have a Democratic gov't that is anti-industry then the impetus is for companies to perhaps move back to Canada.
And something folks forget is that this whole "the majors are leaving Canada" was started by the sale of Conoco Phillips holdings to Cenovus. But where did Conoco Phillips get those assets ...it's an interesting history. Originally all of those assets were owned by Gulf Corporation, one of the original 7 sisters. Gulf was purchased by Chevron back in the eighties and the Canadian piece of Gulf Resources was sold to the Reichman family out of Toronto. Gulf was a fully Canadian company for many years until it was purchased by Conoco Phillips in 2001 and now 15 years later Conoco has decided to sell. Gulf was one of the first companies working in the heavy oil fields with holdings in the Athabasca, Cold Lake, Wabasca areas back in the late sixties/early seventies. And now the assets are in the hands of a company that intends to grow in its oil production. Note that Cenovus was spun out from Encana in 2009 so that Encana could become a pure natural gas company focussed on unconventional and Cenovus would hold their oil assets.
As is normally the case in this industry the assets always end up in the hands of the most appropriate and capable producer.