[Loki]

I found this anti-peak oil rant amusing (from another board that leans heavily right wing):

Originally Posted By sherrick13:
(This thread also shows why FACTS and MATH will always make liberals cry)



I remember a teacher telling me in 1978 I was in 4th grade) that we only had 20 years of oil left.



That stupid bitch was either stupid, uneducated or a fucking communist liar. Or all three.



To understand what is the REAL situation and to see through all the bullshit that is out there you need to understand a couple of simple terms.



1. PROVEN reserves. This is a term that a lot of asshole reporters and shills will use when they say "We only have 27 years of oil left." That is what my bitch of a teacher was using.

They never tell you the rest of the story.

Proven reserves is what oil in the ground is CURRENTLY FIRMLY known AND ECONOMICALLY viable to extract. It is always going up.



This chart shows the history of PROVEN reserves.

http://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20St ... XL/T31.HTM

It is now at about 1.5 trillion barrels. This is the HIGHEST it has ever been. In fact, it has nearly always been on an upward trend.

1960- 291 Billion

1970- 548 Billion

1980- 643 Billion

1990- 993 Billion

2000- 1.08 Trillion



Current world usage is about 100 million barrels a day.

1.5 trillion barrels / 100 million barrels per day /365 = 41 years

This provides that lie you hear all the time that we have only 20-40 years of oil left.



But remember this is PROVEN reserves. Proven reserves go up nearly every single day. And this is AFTER usage.



2. UNPROVEN reserves- this is oil that they are pretty sure, in most cases very sure, but they can't exact quantify the amount and/or it is not presently economically and/or technologically and/or politically viable to extract. Unproven reserves can not be reliably estimated, however it is generally accepted that unproven reserves are at least 3 times proven reserves.



4.5 trillion / 100 million barrels per day / 365 = 123 years



But don't leave yet, we aren't finished.

Unproven is what we know about and are about 50% sure we can get at it now with current tech and can make money.



3. Beyond UNPROVEN reserves. There is a shitton of oil that is out there and in the next 200 years we will be fully capable of getting with future technology and it will be economically viable to extract.



Just in Colorado alone they estimate there are 3 trillion barrels that will eventually be extracted.

A recent report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office estimated that if half of the oil bound up in the rock of the Green River Formation could be recovered it would be "equal to the entire world's proven oil reserves."

Both the GAO and private industry estimate the amount of oil recoverable to be 3 trillion barrels.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/american ... d=17536852



That is just ONE spot in the US. There are others that could be just as rich. i.e. Bakken, Wolfcamp





So lets say there are just five that are that large in the world. (I'm sure there are more)



6 trillion proven and unproven plus 5 x 3 trillion in future extraction = 21 trillion barrels



21 trillion / 100 million / 365 = 575 years of oil



575 YEARS of OIL LEFT!!!!!



at least

And that is why you shouldn't be wringing your hands of what 'renewable' is going to replace oil and/or gasoline.





Yes, I know consumption will go up and won't be 100 million barrels a day, but it won't change the fact that we have HUNDREDS of years of oil left.





Oh, and I didn't even mention natural gas.

[dolanbaker]

I'll have a pint of what he's having!

[Plantagenet]

575 YEARS of OIL LEFT!!!!!

Of course that oil is going to be so hard to get out of the ground that gasoline would have to sell for $1000 gallon to make it profitable, but hey, don't worry---be happy!

[Peak_Yeast]

With the inflation going on - noone will have any problems paying a 1000$ per gallon in a few decades.

[Loki]

With the inflation going on - noone will have any problems paying a 1000$ per gallon in a few decades.

Overall inflation rate in the US has been quite low in recent years. Oil price has risen a tad bit faster than inflation (I'm sure peak oil has nothing to do with this).

[ROCKMAN]

And as I just said elsewhere: Stupidity is no excuse for ignorance.

[Loki]

And as I just said elsewhere: Stupidity is no excuse for ignorance.

I'm sure you have better things to do, but I'd love to see you get into the details of just how wrong this guy is.

[AndyA]

I only read the headline, sounds great. I'm going for a drive to celebrate.

[rollin]

Simply unbelievable.

[kublikhan]

Looks like this guy's data is off buy a few orders of magnitude. Trillions of barrels of recoverable oil in the Bakken? More like billions:

Earlier this year, Continental estimated the Bakken holds 24 billion Boe of recoverable reserves

New estimate

Same issue with Wolfcamp.

The estimated recovery for the Spraberry/Wolfcamp is 50 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). Wolfcamp is estimated to reach 100 billion boe of recoverable reserves in the future.

Apache: A Look At The Wolfcamp And LNG Potential

Might be a good idea to shift several of this guy's estimates by 1-2 decimal places.

[Shaved Monkey]

lol
I wonder if the guy knows how many years we can power our electricity generators with all that untapped uranium reserve in the ocean,not to mention all that hydrogen too ?

[Pops]

We each look at the world from a particular vantage, "We see the world as we are . . ."

This guy's POV is that PO is a liberal plot abetted by the media (asshole reporters) and the Ivory Tower (bitch teacher) with the aim I suppose, to infringe his constitutional – he didn't mention God but I'm sure he has faith He approves, his right to drive. He even pleas to the US government authority for the stats he likes, which I'm sure he does rarely.

Of course even if his stats were right his methodology is wrong. His premise is simply that since the hydrocarbons are there, they will be exploited and at the same or an increasing rate as today. I'm sure his abiding belief is: We built that. But he overlooks the reason "it" was built: profit. He is surely a guy who thinks profit should be the overriding aim of any endeavor but chooses to ignore the probability that some oilish stuff will simply be unprofitable.

So he is actually a pessimist, we'll never recover all the oil, so effectively there is (and always will be) an infinite amount of hydrocarbons left.

[Peak_Yeast]

Now - i dont give much for the official figure of inflation.

What I do is that I look at the cost of the food I buy and the expenses I have- here in Denmark.

And since 2000 the food prices on for example cooking oil and meat has risen approx. 350%. The tax on owning a property has risen about the same amount. The wage for the average engineer has risen approx. 50%. At the same time a lot of free benefits in healthcare has been removed. An uncountable amount of new fines has been implemented. And so on. You cant just take a CPI basket and the Wage - and think that is the inflation - when all the benefits are cut away that you pay for via taxation. And when the government imposes fines that are very difficult to avoid. - Or new expenses that did not exist before imposed by the government.

Besides I expect the inflation to accelerate. Not necessesarily in absolute numbers, but compared to income and taxation.

[ROCKMAN]

Loki - Given how astute you and most others here are I didn't see the need. At this point I see such postings put out for comic relief more than a conversation starter. And whether such predictions are outlandish or fit some of our expectations I still fall back on the basic premise that no future production projection is worth discussing if the price assumption model for such a projection isn't included. And if a price model wasn't used then the discussion stops before it starts IMHO.

[Loki]

Loki - Given how astute you and most others here are I didn't see the need. At this point I see such postings put out for comic relief more than a conversation starter. And whether such predictions are outlandish or fit some of our expectations I still fall back on the basic premise that no future production projection is worth discussing if the price assumption model for such a projection isn't included. And if a price model wasn't used then the discussion stops before it starts IMHO.

Fair enough. I think his price assumption was that oil could cost up to infinity dollars per barrel, in which case we probably could squeeze out every last drop of oil.

[rollin]

Upon further thought, I think that there is far more than 575 years of oil left. Actually there is millennia of oil left and it will be left in the ground.

There is also lots of methane in the outer planets and who knows what minerals in the asteroids, why not dream about that too?

[ROCKMAN]

Loki - But that's the strange aspect of many corny expectations: not only a "lot of oil left" but also that because we have so much it will be very affordable. If thy don't say it their emotions seem to imply it. Even when the obvious is slapping them upside the head today: they rave about increased US production while ignoring the 300% increase in price over the last decade or so that brought above the new production. That's one reason I always jump on the "but we're importing less oil now" rant. Yes we are. And sending more $'s overseas for our imports then when were importing more. IOW our energy trade imbalance hasn't gotten worse since we started importing less.

[ROCKMAN]

Energy Panelists Discuss How to Sustain Energy Industry for Growth

Not really worth the read unless you enjoy listening to Texans brag. LOL.

http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/1 ... h/?all=HG2

“While consumers benefit from energy independence and stable prices, some of the most vocal opposition to the industry comes from those who fear the new technologies that make price stability possible, according to a group of panelists from the public and private sectors that addressed the oil and gas industry at the recent Winter NAPE Business Conference in Houston. It is a challenging time for the industry, and stakeholder interests often seem to be pitted against one another. Energy companies seek more netbacks from markets outside the country, while policy makers fear that selling in the global market could tighten domestic supply and send prices rising. Energy corporations seek new opportunities for growth, even as the din over environmental concerns grows louder.”

Blew it with me right at the start: “While consumers benefit from energy independence and stable prices”. Oh sure…consumers have been so fortunate that prices have hung in there around $100/bbl. We muxt be feeling so independent now. Yes…I haven’t forgotten what I do for a living. But sometimes this asinine spinning is just too much even for me.