TonyPrep wrote:The last chart I saw of oil production showed a peak in November 2018. Has it increased beyond that yet?
TonyPrep wrote:Covid, in 2020, depressed demand which has only just started to get back to where it was.
TonyPrep wrote:Oil storage may have helped boost supply (e.g. the US released quite a lot from its strategic reserve (making a mockery of "strategic", perhaps). Yup, consequences aren't yet too apparent but give it time.
TonyPrep wrote:There may be temporary factors which have masked the reduced supply but that has been trending up recently, from IEA reports.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Of course, at some point, when enough ICE demand is shifting to EV's, there will be less total global demand for crude oil
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Of course, at some point, when enough ICE demand is shifting to EV's, there will be less total global demand for crude oil
(even if petrochemical and, say, asphalt demand keeps rising globally, which it might well if we keep growing the global population and much of it aspires to the middle class level of consumption).
theluckycountry wrote:It's exactly this sort of shallow thinking that has put the American project into the quagmire it's in today. A nation run on Hopium and delusions.
VIENNA, July 5 (Reuters) - Russia-Saudi oil cooperation is still going strong as part of the OPEC+ alliance, which will do "whatever necessary" to support the market, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz
Shale oil, which the Energy Information Administration projects will represent a rising proportion of American oil supplies in the coming decades, has a surprising Achilles heel: its low octane levels, which make it a poor fit for the high-efficiency car engines of the future... “IHS forecasts that turbocharged engines will represent 55 percent of production for North America by 2024, up from an expected 33 percent this year,”
But shale oil, it turns out, brings with it a variety of elements that lower the octane levels of a gasoline blend, like naphtha. The ultra-light color that at first excited shale drillers — the light, sweet crude that had become harder to find from conventional sources — reflects shale oil’s higher proportions of natural gas liquids and other easy-to-ignite hydrocarbons.
“Our thesis is that the U.S. refining system is close to being maxed-out on the amount of shale oil it can process,” a Morgan Stanley research note concluded this month, citing shale oil’s light hue, which makes it ill-suited to make high octane gas, as well as jet fuel and diesel.
Lighter shale oil is perfectly fine for making gasoline, but not the best for making diesel and jet fuel. Medium and heavy oil is needed for that.
theluckycountry wrote:
U.S. Shale’s Dirty SecretLighter shale oil is perfectly fine for making gasoline, but not the best for making diesel and jet fuel. Medium and heavy oil is needed for that.
Last year, against all odds, Russia managed to grow its oil output despite being hit with tough sanctions, a plethora of oilfield service companies exiting the country as well as the refusal by western countries to buy its crude for the most part.
There have been widely varying estimates of proven oil reserves in Russia. Most estimates included only Western Siberian reserves, which have been exploited since the 1970s and supply two-thirds of Russian oil. However, there are potentially huge reserves elsewhere. In 2005, the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources estimated that another 4.7 billion barrels (0.75×109 m3) of oil exist in Eastern Siberia.
Rosneft has a majority stake in 28 offshore licenses in the Arctic, eight of which are located in the Pechora Sea. (Photo: Rosneft)
Russian energy giant Rosneft announced the discovery of a huge oil deposit in the Pechora Sea. The new oil field is estimated to contain 82 million tons of oil. The oil field was discovered during a drilling campaign in the Medynsko-Varandeysky coastal area. “During the tests, a free flow of oil with a maximum flow rate of 220 cubic meters per day was achieved
theluckycountry wrote:As for western analysis of Russian decline, well that's some of the worst fortune telling ever contrived as they relentlessly predict a peak only to see the Russian's surpass it.
Oxford Institute https://seekingalpha.com/article/451349 ... ere-on-outLast year, against all odds, Russia managed to grow its oil output despite being hit with tough sanctions, a plethora of oilfield service companies exiting the country as well as the refusal by western countries to buy its crude for the most part.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/A ... -2035.html
Plantagenet wrote: potential closure of the Russian Black Sea ports to all shipping could be even worse news for Russia.
mousepad wrote:Plantagenet wrote: potential closure of the Russian Black Sea ports to all shipping could be even worse news for Russia.
I'm wondering who will be hurting most if Vlad's oil can't hit the world market anymore. Better hope Sleepy has another strategic reserve ready to tap into. Or should I start my own strategic reserve in my bathtub?
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
2023
Regarding crude oil, China's crude oil imports from Russia surged to a record high of 2.01 million B/D in February, a roughly 20% share of the market, the data showed. Russian crude deliveries surged 42% year on year and were 33.1% higher than shipments from second-largest supplier Saudi Arabia which supplied 1.51 million B/D
Tanada wrote:mousepad wrote:Plantagenet wrote: potential closure of the Russian Black Sea ports to all shipping could be even worse news for Russia.
I'm wondering who will be hurting most if Vlad's oil can't hit the world market anymore. Better hope Sleepy has another strategic reserve ready to tap into. Or should I start my own strategic reserve in my bathtub?
I think even saying closure of the Black Sea ports is vitally important is a big stretch. Russia has access to the world sea shipping market via the Baltic, via the White Sea/Arctic and via the Pacific without a severe strain on capabilities. We are not talking about Japan or Great Britain where closing all the ports in one area is all it takes to blockade the entire nation. Even in those island nations it took massive efforts in war time to severely limit their shipping during the world wars and it never was entirely stopped.
Tanada wrote:
The simple reality is even NATO still wants Russian oil on the world market because the economic consequences of eliminating that portion from the global market would hurt them at least as badly as it would harm Russia
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