[dixonge]

Howdy.

If you look at my board stats, you can see that I found this board after the LATOC forums closed, then spent a very brief time here (maybe a month?) back in late 2010. I wasn't here long, but I was here long enough to be irked by Graeme and to voice my theories on how he was some sort of techno-shill...

post1018361.html#p1018361

At the time, my general viewpoint was that we were, in fact, doomed, and that there was no salvation in technology. Here in early 2014, things look a bit different to me and I thought it only fair to come back and admit that I was wrong.

First, my apologies to Graeme. Even though I still dislike it when someone's participation is 95% link and excerpt posting, vs. discussion, I was ridiculously harsh on him for no good reason.

Second, about my change of heart re: technology. That one is a bit more difficult to explain. I guess I let the Doomer despair overwhelm my logic, or maybe political reality overshadowed my faith in technology. Either way, I was recently shaken out of this despair when this news article came in front of my eyes:

Texas Wind Power Sets New US Record

Not only was I surprised that this was going on in my home state, but this particular tidbit especially caught my attention:

All together, wind accounted for an impressive 29 percent of electricity on the ERCOT grid at the time the record was set.

Wow! Somehow, while I was busy being apathetic and simply thinking that the whole world was going to just burn fossil fuels until we extincted ourselves, renewable energy made amazing progress! Over the last month I've consumed mass quantities of documentaries and news articles to catch up on the state of things. And it's given me this odd sensation. I'm not sure exactly how to describe it, but it feels a whole lot like ...

Hope.

[AgentR11]

Either way, I was recently shaken out of this despair when this news article came in front of my eyes:
Texas Wind Power Sets New US Record
Not only was I surprised that this was going on in my home state, but this particular tidbit especially caught my attention:

If you've been here, and OUTSIDE, this shouldn't surprise you. I don't know if there's a good way or measure or describe the total quantity of surface wind over an area, but Texas has been exceptionally, and weirdly if I may, windy all year. I'm almost used to the idea that I bicycle 12mph in one direction and 25 mph in the other...

So we have expanding collectors, collecting a growing resource... if you don't set records then, you're doing something wrong.

All together, wind accounted for an impressive 29 percent of electricity on the ERCOT grid at the time the record was set.

Its also been weird in that the wind has been consistently strong through the day; not a quick peak and die off by late afternoon. I woke up this morning, windy as heck, its still windy middle afternoon, and late tonight if I go bike some more, its predicted to still be quite windy. DAT BE WEIRD.

OTOH.. This is what cornucopia looks like to Generic American:


Expect more step down functions over the next few decades. Which means, no exciting doom, just a slow grinding down of the lower 80% of the population.

[Beery1]

Dixonge, you were probably more right the first time than you are now. It's easy to believe in tech as the savior until you look at how the tech is created, built and serviced. Wind power is not a long-term energy solution unless it involves pre-18th Century technology and a massive dial back of power consumption. Modern wind power is not the future of energy - all it can ever be is a stop-gap measure in our journey back to the 17th Century.

[Lore]

In the future we will be diverting more of our financial resources to repairing and preventing. Which means there will be a shrinking portion for technological innovation.

During WWII the Germans invested heavily into technology. The V2 rocket, a production jet fighter, the tiger II tank. All of it came, too little too late, to do them any good. The lesson being, great need doesn't necessarily produce timely results. More often the course of events move at a far greater speed.

[Newfie]

But those jobs are kind of what? Make work?

Exactly!

[Keith_McClary]

Wow! Somehow, while I was busy being apathetic and simply thinking that the whole world was going to just burn fossil fuels until we extincted ourselves, renewable energy made amazing progress! Over the last month I've consumed mass quantities of documentaries and news articles to catch up on the state of things.

Have you seen any that "do the numbers" on how fast alternatives can be ramped up? I mean worldwide, not just anecdotal examples.

[Pops]

If you can put any faith in the EIA they just aren't seeing renewables as any savior.

OTOH, they see nat gas increasing forever, LTO increasing for a decade and coal use on a flat line so take their guess at face value.

[dixonge]

Dixonge, you were probably more right the first time than you are now. It's easy to believe in tech as the savior until you look at how the tech is created, built and serviced. Wind power is not a long-term energy solution unless it involves pre-18th Century technology and a massive dial back of power consumption. Modern wind power is not the future of energy - all it can ever be is a stop-gap measure in our journey back to the 17th Century.

and yet it can provide up to 30% of a large state's electricity? What part of that is bad, or backward? And why would wind, by itself, be the future of energy? It's just a part of it, but a very viable, long-lasting, low-maintenance part.

[dixonge]

Dixonge, you were probably more right the first time than you are now. It's easy to believe in tech as the savior until you look at how the tech is created, built and serviced. Wind power is not a long-term energy solution unless it involves pre-18th Century technology and a massive dial back of power consumption. Modern wind power is not the future of energy - all it can ever be is a stop-gap measure in our journey back to the 17th Century.

True that. Sure the white-collar worker might drive to their cubicle in a Volt or Leaf. But those jobs are kind of what? Make work? Without charging facilities on all interstates long-haul trucking will never go EV. Nor will agriculture, forestry, mining, industry. The businesses that feed and house us.

These guys just drove to Panama in a Tesla - pretty sure there aren't any special charging stations on that route

https://www.facebook.com/TexasToPanamaInATesla

And this guy drove to from Thousand Oaks to Tijuana to Canada and back home in a Tesla, and *did* use the supercharge stations installed by Tesla, so he spent $0 on electricity.

http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1 ... mexico_to/

Yes, I understand. The charging station concept isn't on every Interstate yet. Why would it be? But, more importantly, why do you believe it *won't* be? It's all about supply and demand.

[dixonge]

Wow! Somehow, while I was busy being apathetic and simply thinking that the whole world was going to just burn fossil fuels until we extincted ourselves, renewable energy made amazing progress! Over the last month I've consumed mass quantities of documentaries and news articles to catch up on the state of things.

Have you seen any that "do the numbers" on how fast alternatives can be ramped up? I mean worldwide, not just anecdotal examples.

Germany has hit 25% renewable in a decade and will be 40% by 2025, 80% by 2050. That's probably a pretty good benchmark for maximum growth rate. As this spreads worldwide it reduces the fossil fuel demand, pushing peak oil further out.

http://www.triplepundit.com/2014/04/ele ... increases/

"Increased generation with renewable energy, excluding hydropower, accounts for 28% of the overall growth in electricity generation from 2012 to 2040 in the AEO2014 Reference case."

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/early_elecgen.cfm

[dixonge]

If you can put any faith in the EIA they just aren't seeing renewables as any savior.

OTOH, they see nat gas increasing forever, LTO increasing for a decade and coal use on a flat line so take their guess at face value.

Define 'savior' ...

Don't think in all-or-nothing terms. That's a great chart. Renewables is a growing piece of the energy mix. It is reducing coal use and other fossil fuel use. Can't renewable energy just simply provide a nice cushion to greatly reduce the impact of peak oil? As fossil fuels max out and decline, can't a shift to renewable energy take up the slack?

[Pops]

As this spreads worldwide it reduces the fossil fuel demand, pushing peak oil further out.

Not really, looks like their FF use is about the same as it was in '95

[in the US chart]It is reducing coal use and other fossil fuel use.

No it isn't. The absolute amount of FF use in that chart is increasing by something like 30%.

If that doesn't happen then the proportion of renewables will actually increase! Yee-Haw!
lol, sorry

I've never doubted that as long as there are FFs to support the economy and enable the necessary investment, that renewables will add to the mix. I don't see them as mitigating the decline of FFs in a great way.

But keeping an LED or two on is better than threading a wick through a dead crow.

[dixonge]

well then let's look at Spain and Portugal

Spain's gas powered electric output fell 34% year-on-year, coal was down 27.3%, nuclear down 8.3%. If that's not a drop in FF I don't know what is. Wind was up 12%, hydro up 13%. Overall power use was down 2.1%. Installed power capacity now stands at 49.1%.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... CMP=twt_gu

Portugal hit 70% of its energy from renewables in 1Q 2013

http://www.juancole.com/2014/01/portuga ... sible.html

[Pops]

I think that's great.
But really, is there any doubt that given enough money you can do just about anything? For a while?

The energy deficit — the accumulated shortfall between the cost of power generation in Spain and what regulated rates bring in from consumers — has reached more than 26 billion euros (about $36 billion). For 2013, the government had targeted a full-year deficit of €3.6 billion. Instead, the shortfall reached €4.5 billion for the period to October.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/28/busin ... .html?_r=0

Spain's total budget for 2013 is about $50B - so Spain is in the hole 80% of it's entire budget and still it's just a fraction.

Some chartage showing that renewable grew but FF use has been falling along with their economy - from:
http://euanmearns.com/energiewende-germ ... and-spain/






Again, reading all the feel-good and ignoring the rest doesn't give a realistic picture if a person is interested in the real picture.

.

[KaiserJeep]

I'm a little more pessimistic here than many posters. Germany's goals are very challenging, and they have handicapped themselves even more by retiring their nuclear power plants, they have to replace the lost nuclear capacity, add more capacity for growth, and retire fossil fuel plants all at once.

I think anybody would be lucky to achieve 25% renewables, barring a major advance in either renewable sources or bulk energy storage. Hydropower is typically already developed, and both wind and solar tend to be daytime-only sources.

[dixonge]

I think that's great.
But really, is there any doubt that given enough money you can do just about anything? For a while?

The energy deficit — the accumulated shortfall between the cost of power generation in Spain and what regulated rates bring in from consumers — has reached more than 26 billion euros (about $36 billion). For 2013, the government had targeted a full-year deficit of €3.6 billion. Instead, the shortfall reached €4.5 billion for the period to October.

So in spite of heavy government suppression of utility rates, which would impact generator profit and consumer use, renewables have made massive increases of late. But what part of that supports your assertion? How is this money, in the form of rate regulation, helping renewables? If the rates were deregulated, and utilities were able to charge a free-market price and restore profitability, wouldn't this result in a tripling or greater of renewable energy installations?

Again, reading all the feel-good and ignoring the rest doesn't give a realistic picture if a person is interested in the real picture.

I agree, wholeheartedly - 100%! How else do you think that I came to change my position on this? I stopped ignoring and dismissing the positive news. I recommend it, in general.

[Pops]

So in spite of heavy government suppression of utility rates, which would impact generator profit and consumer use, renewables have made massive increases of late. But what part of that supports your assertion? How is this money, in the form of rate regulation, helping renewables?

So you think the difference in costs and rate just magically disappears? LOL

The "government" makes up the difference with subsidies.

IOW, today's ratepayers are subsidized by future taxpayers.

Feb. 3, 2014 3:31 p.m. ET
MADRID—Spain's government on Monday laid out the details of its plan to cut subsidies for renewable-energy producers, a move those producers say could cause defaults across their industry.

The proposal sets new formulas for calculating an overall reduction in subsidy payments to solar and wind farms and other renewable-power producers that Spain's government has said could amount to about €1.8 billion ($2.43 billion) this year. Renewable-energy companies have 20 days to present their comments on the proposal, which would take effect once published in the government's official register.

The proposal is the latest step in an industry overhaul announced last summer. The cost of running the nation's power grid for years has far exceeded the revenue from sales of power to companies and households, generating an accumulated "tariff deficit" estimated at around €30 billion that ultimately will be passed on to taxpayers. To keep the deficit from growing further, the government is reducing the renewable subsidies and the compensation the electrical system pays to companies that transport and distribute energy.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 ... 3986679382