[Pops]

KJ mentioned online food shopping and home delivery elsewhere so I thought we should dust off the old petro-polymer balls, gaze into the future, and talk about shopping in general.

"Consumption is 70% of the US economy" is the bumper sticker. That includes all the variable costs that go into making the stuff we consume, some of that is spending here, some elsewhere.

But we aren't talking about just iPhones, unleaded and hamburgers. Half of GDP ($8T of $16T) is services. Everything from healthcare to real estate commissions to credit card interest to coffee jerks.

When I was a kid we paid our "light bill" at the drugstore or at the bank. Online bill pay is increasing, 80% of American said they banked online at least once in the last year. Bad for the post office, good for energy use. The same online benefits apply to lots of other areas that impact travel - one of course is travel. Online travel booking is huge. But lots of other places: I do my taxes online, converse with my doc, receive payments from a couple of clients electronically - and I almost forgot, I make a living via the net - zero commute.

How about delivery? Anytime you have an opportunity to reduce cost you have the potential to increase profit. And, like just about everything else, scale is everything. UPS said that in 2010 they started mapping delivery routes to shorten distances traveled but also maximize right hand turns and minimize lefts to avoid idling. They say in the PR piece it saved them 63 million miles and reduced fuel consumption per package 3%. Not bad.

If you look to the past when travel was less convenient and more expensive and of course when the "little woman" was regularly home, traveling salesmen and home delivery was even more the norm. From the milkman to the iceman, Fuller Brush man and the kid delivering groceries on a bike. Not sure which way things might go, more computer-aided one-off delivery like UPS or maybe regular routes like the milkman.

Of course all that depends on having a job to pay for the stuff in the first place, LOL. I think personally that the best conservation measure will be pink slips but that's another thread. So anyway, the question here is how will shopping work in a future of higher travel costs?


http://useconomy.about.com/od/grossdome ... onents.htm
http://www.statisticbrain.com/online-mo ... tatistics/
https://www.sustainablebusiness.com/ind ... y/id/23015

[KaiserJeep]

You learn some astonishing things about energy consumed for food production versus food distribution when you investigate the topic.

For example, everyone has heard the oft-quoted statistic that putting one calorie of food on the table in the USA requires 10 calories of fossil energy to grow the food, and sixty calories of fossil energy to transport and cook the food. But did you understand that the biggest share of the energy expended was in your home in the final preparation? Or that the second biggest energy expenditure was the consumer vehicle that you shopped with?

http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/err-economic-research-report/err94.aspx#.U2TpePldWN0

Also, note that when you compare fossil energy expenditures for growing perishable food in a greenhouse in New York versus transporting it from California via refrigerated freight cars, that the greenhouse uses 4X to 6X the energy of the trains and trucks:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42572375

...there went my dream of feeding myself from a greenhouse in Northern Wisconsin.

This is a timely topic. It would seem that - as long as you have a roof covered with solar PV panels - you get the biggest energy win from buying bulk foods, having them delivered frozen, and then cooking them in a solar thermal cooker.

[Paulo1]

I live in a very rural area, about 50 miles from the nearest town/small city where there are stores. My best friend grew up here when it was basically a logging camp with some company family houses. Every summer his family would sit down with the Sears catalogue and order new school clothes and shoes for the coming year. They would await their arrival with great anticipation. Why?, because to get to town in those days was almost 4 hours by a long diversionary logging road route...or by boat. They didn't go often.

Fast forward 50 years. We do go to town every week for the few groceries we don't grow or catch. My mom is very far gone in the last stages of alzheimers in an extended care facility, so I go sit with her for awhile. My wife's mom is in the beginning phase of alzheimers and still at home with husband, so we are the ones that help out with everything from medications to shopping and home repairs. Coupled with a visit to the dentist or the need for hardware supplies or parts, the last thing I will ever do is go shopping for freaking clothes or shoes.

Once a year I go to an online catalogue and order some clothes and shoes, as needed....just like my buddy's parents used to do when he was a kid. They are sent by Canada Post like they were back then. I buy the same things every time so it isn't too hard. Today I will order a hydraulic motor for a winch I am making, and it too will be delivered by Canada Post. We do have a small post office in 'the village', but no grocery store for the last few years as everyone switched to town stores years ago do to price differential and selection. Now, if you run out of milk or need beer, whatever, you can drive 10 km to the highway 'Junction'/gas station. It is basically a gas station store catering to folks heading up Island. Their biggest sellers are chips and pop...coffee and smokes. I go there about once a year if I run out of propane.

If we have a spare moment on a town run we prefer to visit friends or go to either a small Japanese restaurant or go for Thai food. There are two simple and affordable restaurants we like that we have patronized for years.

The only problem with this mindset is that over the years we are looking more and more like country rubes. My wardrobe mostly consists of shorts or jeans, tee shirts, and the odd coat. My shoes are mostly runners or gum boots. I wear boots when I have to. Fashion plates we are not, but neither have we ever purchased pre-made frozen food from a store. It is a good way to live.

Funny that our lifestyle has returned to what was the norm almost 50 years ago, at least for some of us. The difference is that back then the same place had a local grocery store, the same post office, a liquor store, 2 banks and a credit union, and a hotel with a beer parlour. There used to even be a bowling alley!! The little mall has been abandoned for years because people still prefer to go to a big town for the most part. I guess what we are seeing is a hybrid version of the past. Online ordering for convenience, and town options as one chooses. If PO bites harder I suspect it will stay the same but folks will carpool for town runs.

Paulo

[dinopello]

I'll start with saying that delivery of goods to the home is as old as civilization probably. "Shopping" I think is the newer activity. A large proportion of the houses in my neighborhood were delivered as kits by Sears on the rail line that ran through here. From these selections in the era 1905-1920. They were are good houses!



I think "shopping" (i.e. searching for what you want) is made much more efficient online and coupled with delivery it probably saves energy. Going out to buy what you want when you know where it is and that they have it is probably a wash with delivery depending on what it is. I went to the garden center yesterday to get some raspberry bushes to plant (saw they had a huge selection the previous week when I bought some blueberries). But, they had sold out (good news I guess that people are planting!) It may have been a wasted trip or involved driving to other places etc., but I was lazy so I just bought blackberries instead - but they were down to just a few Darrow hybrids so had to take what they had. There are many places that will allow ording online and deliver plants and trees even but I couldn't see doing that - plus the plant nursery is about the best shopping experience for me.

[GHung]

I expect urban shopping will be mostly for essentials and look something like I saw when I studied in the USSR (1974); like this:


More here:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... -USSR.html

I often saw several hundred people cueing up hoping to get a share of just a few kilos of chicken or beef, sometimes for hours. Of course, the hotels and 'dormitories' catering to tourists and foreigners were generally better stocked.

[Plantagenet]

I expect urban shopping will be mostly for essentials and look something like I saw when I studied in the USSR (1974); like this:

When I was in the USSR you first had to stand in line to get a little ticket for the item you wanted to buy, then you stood in line to buy it, then you stood in line to pay for it. There is very little chance we'll go back to that system. The modern American capitalist system has devised a way of shopping that is much more efficient, quicker and easier for all involved

[Shaved Monkey]

I live in the middle of nowhere and get lots of my stuff online.
Most electrical goods come with free delivery,I even bought my chest freezer from the online version of the same chain thats in town for $100 less and free delivery (local guy charges $40),...It was fun seeing the local guy deliver it from his shop for free too.
I even order all my hardware from the neighbouring town because when I hire a private courier company (at $80 instead of the local guy at $40 Im still getting everything hundreds of dollars cheaper if I wait till I get a big order).
I get my wine over the internet from a major city a cheap price plus $7 a box delivered to my door,works out at way less than half price and has more variety than if I bought my wine from the local franchise.
I buy lots of consumables out of China directly from Ebay,electric toothbrush heads,led light globes, batteries, printer ink etc.(even 1200 thread count Egyptian cotton sheets)
Most are free postage and well under 1/3 of the price of buying them local with less wasting of time, money and oil, some things are under 1/10 of the price.
I've even bought cooking oil in bulk,direct from the processor a few towns away online with a $12 delivery charge, still worked out at half the price of retail.
Mulch mushroom compost comes from the next town free delivery when he fills up a truck with local orders so you have to wait a few weeks and it still works out way cheaper than getting it of the local guy or loading up a trailer and paying your petrol ,delivered to your door neatly stacked for free too).
When I go on holiday to the nearest large city with a good Asian grocery store.
I stock up in bulk on fish sauce, soy,dried shiitake and wood ear,deep fried shallots ,pulses and dried spices.( I have a few years supply. but will stock up again when I go on this years holiday.)
Grocery shopping trips are about once every 3 months.
The local supermarket(virtually every local shop) is a tourist rip off, I only ever buy things on special or if I'm desperate and cant justify a big 3 hour round trip to go shopping in the next town.

Im slowly working on reducing my shopping needs,main way is a change of diet to a more home grown version( La cucina povera in its asian,middle eastern and asian forms) and preserving and growing more of what I like.
also include vineyard, cheese, sausage and salami making more fishing and bartering my stuff for meat.
Obviously still need to buy stuff from China I dont think Im ready to carve bamboo toothbrushes or weave clothes

[seahorse3]

Walmart is opening a few concept grocery stores that are order online and pick up your groceries at the drive through

[seahorse3]

I don't have the answers to any questions, just a sign of change

[Shaved Monkey]

Do they not have online groceries in the US ?
We are just out of the delivery zone by about 3/4s of an hour here.
I would do it if it was available save money, oil and time
You dont get a chance to hunt out the marked down bargains though.

[seahorse3]

Customers like online shopping - either bc disabled, hurry, convenience. It's
Cheaper for retailers too- less floor space , less litigation costs not defending slip/falls, no shop lifting, less costs in build out bc not building out for customer

[Ibon]

I have always seen shopping having a primal element trying to fulfill at the mall or store what we have lost being away from complex natural eco systems.

You have a choice of 90 brands of cereals or deodorant, like Imelda Marcos if you have money you might have 3000 pairs of shoes in your closet. Why is it we need to choose between so much variety.

Is it because we have created sterile environments that no longer have the rich biodiversity of natural habitats and we compensate for this difficiency by creating this rich diversity in product choices?

The nuerosis around shopping will only gradually diminish and dissapear when we once again expose ourselves to living in richer more diverse organic environments. Something that will be imposed on us once resource constraints take away the artificial diversity of shopping.

Last night we put up the mercury vapor lights for some visiting entomologists. You scan the walls and sheets around the lights and marvel at the incredible diversity of forms, patterns, colors, designs, mimicry, camouflage etc.

Who needs a closet full of shoes when you are exposed to the rich diverse wonders of the natural world?

[SeaGypsy]

I have made my 4th major life change since joining this board in 2009.
A couple of months ago I packed my wife and kids off back to the 3rd world country of their birth, to an area where 90% of the food they eat is grown within 10 miles. She has a little 125 scooter with a sidecar, brand new, gets over 100 MPG which is more than 3 months worth of her commutes around the village. She has built a successful small business which relies on a monthly bus trip to the capital to stock up. The shop sells about 50/50 local and Chinese imported goods for double to triple wholesale.

Back here in Oz, I have moved back to my home City of Darwin, switched out of community services into civil construction. We have 3.5% unemployment and arethe fastest growing city in Oz. Took me a week to get a job I love. I live in my tiny caravan with free rent on aboriginal land 6 miles from work. I drive my 20 year old little diesel Peugeot to work and shop on the way home. Everything in the van runs off a 150 watt inverter charged by the car on the commute. I have a wilderness in my backyard, no neighbors for about 2 miles, a good fishing river the same distance away.

I have a few weeks off every 3 months to go see my family.
Life is sweet.

[KaiserJeep]

I have always seen shopping having a primal element trying to fulfill at the mall or store what we have lost being away from complex natural eco systems.

You have a choice of 90 brands of cereals or deodorant, like Imelda Marcos if you have money you might have 3000 pairs of shoes in your closet. Why is it we need to choose between so much variety.

Is it because we have created sterile environments that no longer have the rich biodiversity of natural habitats and we compensate for this difficiency by creating this rich diversity in product choices?

The nuerosis around shopping will only gradually diminish and dissapear when we once again expose ourselves to living in richer more diverse organic environments. Something that will be imposed on us once resource constraints take away the artificial diversity of shopping.

Last night we put up the mercury vapor lights for some visiting entomologists. You scan the walls and sheets around the lights and marvel at the incredible diversity of forms, patterns, colors, designs, mimicry, camouflage etc.

Who needs a closet full of shoes when you are exposed to the rich diverse wonders of the natural world?

Most people get over shopping as they get older. I own three pairs of shoes. One has steel toes to protect me from doing something stupid while mowing the lawn. One pair laces up high and is for hiking, and might or might not protect me from snakebite. One pair is Black and gets used for everything from formal events to work. Otherwise I have clothes older than my house. There is a reason that nobody cares about the over-40 demographic, most of us do not care to be stylish or to have the latest and greatest of anything.

I own three Jeeps, they are 11 years old, 13 years old, and 47 years old.

I don't own a cell phone, and would quit my job if told I had to carry one. They are simply excuses for being impolite.

Years ago, I treated myself to a separate savings account for discretionary funds, and had a couple of hundred $ a month auto deposited. When the balance gets too large, I drop a couple of thousand into another account. I buy food, e-books, and not much else.

All I want to do now is retire comfortably, take a few more vacations, and have a grandchild to spoil.

Truthfully, I'm hoping TEOTWAWKI holds off for a while. Nor does thinking about it keep me awake any more.

[Ibon]

I don't own a cell phone, and would quit my job if told I had to carry one. They are simply excuses for being impolite.

Good post KJ. My current consumption habits would not power the economy.

Here is a great video with some great prose that I saw yesterday about cellphone and other digital obessions that create an illusion of communication.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7dLU6fk9QY