[Apollo]

The ISIL has reportedly taken the capital of Nineveh. Contrary to Anbar, this an oil producing region of Iraq. Could this be a turning point in this war?

Any information out there on the amount of oil produced in Nineveh? Or pipelines running through?

[dolanbaker]

I suspect that they'll get repelled fairly quickly, the US won't stand for someone taking "their" oil.
It will just mean another delay in Iraq oil production restoration projects.

[Shaved Monkey]

If the oil flows they will be tolerated as a good diversion of energy and funds.
Nothing better than having your enemies fight each other without any disruption in "your" resources.
Good opportunity to sell some hardware to both sides too.

[Keith_McClary]

Juan Cole has an opinion:
The Fall of Mosul and the False Promises of Modern History

[vtsnowedin]

The fall of Mosul, or the fall of Saigon? same thing just different century.

[Pops]

It means Carter was right, we should have learned to turn down the thermostat.

If we had spent on renewables and transit and intelligent redevelopment, the 6 or 8 trillion the wars cost plus the unknown trillions spent arming the people we eventually went to war with in the first place, we'd be in a much better place today.

As it is the pain hasn't even started.

[Ibon]

As it is the pain hasn't even started.

Will the glorious pain be the catalyst of change
With no change in your pocket
and no fuel in your rocket

Where will change be?

With entitlement diminished when cheap oil is finished
Will the glorious pain wake us from our slumber....
Will it make us humbler?

The pain of resources constrained awaits us but awakens us.

So the pain will bring change
With only a dime in your pocket
and no new paradigm for your rocket
No nuclear fusion to feed your illusion

What will change be?

A new energy source of course
An internal force, resourcefulness, easily missed.
A resource lying dormant in the fumes of fossil fuels
Those that don't will be fossil fools

[Timo]

The fall of Mosul to ISIS simply means that the war will never end. ISIS is regarded as too extreme by AQ. I forsee a very rapid rise in sectarian warfare in Iraq for many years to come. The US/NATO will be forced to step in and attempt to stem their advances for humanitarian reasons. The control of any access to their oil will be purely coincidental. This will only fuel more animosity toward the West. Humans simply cannot avoid destroying ourselves. It's who we are.

As bad as Saddam Hussein was to his people and neighboring contries, the decline of Iraq and that entire part of the world in his absence is horrifying. Be careful what you wish for. The enemy you know is better than the enemy you don't.

[Pops]

These people already control a large part of Syria don't they? I'm thinking the US isn't gonna do much, we're tired and broke.

And why should we? Obviously the effort to oust Saddam was to perpetuate "our" empire but in reality it was to benefit the empires of Halliburton and EXXON, who in fact are now only nominally connected to the US. They want to pay no tax, want to have no responsibility to the US, and why should they? They are by definition supranationals.

Eventually we will come to understand that the supranationals have no allegiance to this country, they are loyal only to profit and then maybe we'll quit fighting their battles for territory.

[dsula]

in reality it was to benefit the empires of Halliburton and EXXON,.

I think for profits it would be better for exxon et al to have as high of oil prices as possible. Cheap oil benefits mostly consumers (of all continents).

[Pops]

not if they have none to extract

[dorlomin]

Some oil but none of the big fields. Not really central to the concerns of the Kurds or the Shi'ites.

Saigon. No.

[hvacman]

Iraq under Saddam was a lot like Yugoslavia under Tito. A ruthless iron fist kept the conglomeration of tribes from killing each other and gave the external veneer of an actual nation-state. Once the iron-fist was gone, balkanization takes its bloody course. The ebb and flow of various violent factions will only fade when either they all grow just too weary/broke from killing each other, or another iron-fist arises. To think we can slap a western-style democracy in this region and have it stick is absurd.

[dolanbaker]

The real problem is that like most of post colonial Africa, the borders were drawn in the wrong places!
This means that within the boundaries of many states are several different tribes who could live side by side in separate states but don't want to co-exist in the same state, also many tribal lands were split between several "states" when the colonialists divided up the region. Historically, the Middle East would have consisted of several "city states" and the desert between them would have been considered no man's land, a bit like the high seas (used to be).

[Plantagenet]

Obama pulled out of Iraq in 2009. Islamists are taking over now in 2014

Obama bombed Libya and toppled the khadaffy regime in 2012. Islamists are taking over now in 2014

Obama plans to pull all US troops out of Afghanistan in 2015. How long until the Taliban Islamists take over again there?

Somewhere in hell Osama bin laden is taking a bow and patting himself on the back

[Shaved Monkey]

Great rewriting of history but how does it explain that there was no AQ in Iraq before Dubya invaded???
or the Ruskies were hammering the Taliban with their choppers until the Republicans gave them the surface to air missiles?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Wi ... itician%29

In 1983, he won an additional $40 million, $17 million of which was allocated for anti-aircraft weapons to shoot down Mil Mi-24 Hind helicopters.
The next year, CIA officer Gust Avrakotos directly approached Wilson—breaking the CIA's policy against lobbying Congress for money—asking Wilson for $50 million more.

[Plantagenet]

Great rewriting of history but how does it explain that there was no AQ in Iraq before Dubya invaded???

That's 10 years ago. The fall of Mosul to Al Qaida is happening now. Do--- Try to keep up!

[Plantagenet]

The WSJ is reporting that Maliki has just secretly asked Obama to start bombing the Islamists in Iraq.

Anybody up for Gilf War III?

[charmcitysking]

Why hasn't the price of oil jumped yet? With all the recent events in the energy world (IEA's recent outlook report, massive overshoot of shale reserves, China's growing consumption) It would certainly make sense, wouldn't it? Seems like we're due for a good ol' fashioned demand-killing price hike.

When's the other shoe going to drop? Or will we have to wait for the ISIS to march on Baghdad?

This really is only going in one direction...

[toolpush]

The WSJ is reporting that Maliki has just secretly asked Obama to start bombing the Islamists in Iraq.

It is not too much of a secret , if you read it in the WSJ?

Oil is starting to respond, up $2 this morning!